Posted on 10/15/2018 5:15:54 PM PDT by dontreadthis
Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide. But the GOP still has the early advantage when in comes to the 2018 General Election. As of 8:00 AM this morning, over 327,000 people have voted in Florida, a 2.5% overall turnout rate. The Republican turnout rate 3.22%, while Democratic turnout rate is only at 2.44%. NPAs and minor party voter turnout is only at 1.65%. The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’, which was mentioned in the last projection model article, is -11.16, heavily favoring the Republicans.
As far as the state projection, the generic Republican vote is at 51.69% statewide, and the generic Democratic vote is at 44.8%. This represents a .39% loss in GOP vote overnight, and an increase of .5% for the Democrats. The reason for this is probably the increase in votes being reported in South Florida. As for the reason the Republicans are leading, a disproportionate amount of the current vote is still coming from Southwest Florida.
Today’s projection map is the first map that we have introduced that replicates the 2016 presidential election (edit: with the exception of Sarasota County). With that, we can probably assume that there might not be much of a difference when it comes to the look of the map. However, we might see some changes. Some of it is good news for Republicans, and some of it good news for Democrats. For Republicans, the “Big Three” counties in South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach), are under-performing for Democrats compared to VBM numbers in 2016. Duval County is also under-performing for the Democrats. As for the Democrats, they are seeing some of the margins that Republicans ran up in the past starting to come down. Counties like Brevard, St. Johns, and Indian River in the east, and Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa in the west, are showing 2% – 5% swings in favor of the Democrats compared to 2016’s VBM numbers.
If we compare this to VBM totals at this point in 2016, it is not good news for Democrats. On October 14th, 2016, the composition of VBM ballots submitted was 42.4% for the Republicans and 40.15% for the Democrats. As of today, 45.58% of the ballots submitted have been Republican ballots, with only 36.32% being Democratic ballots. This explains the large enthusiasm gap as well as the commanding projected lead for Republicans. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the VBM vote by only 1.5%. This early deficit should be a major worry for any Democrat running, either statewide or locally.
Great - this is gonna be a long three weeks !
I actually think Soros paid Warren a big sum to distract from their forthcoming debacle...she wouldn’t be a presidential candidate anyway.
Polls are propaganda but this metric seems like a pretty good early indicator.
Sounds like the "blue wave" could use some blue pills!
Turns out folks aren’t quite ready for expropriations and gulags.
Florida, northern colony of two state voters!
This is seriously bad for Ds.
SpeedyInTexas and I have tracked the vote so far and already remarked it looks VERY much like 2016, both in FL and in Mont.Co OH where we can actually track how “indies” vote based on house-by-house voting history.
I really think the ballots are too confusing for democrats. Wait until they have to stand in line longer due to amendments. I think Governor Scott and the ballot will help republicans to get it done.
I really wish voting was tomorrow. 3 weeks is an eternity!!!!!
I actually think many African Americans have left the plantation. They may not be ready to vote R, but many are ready to just stay home.
Floridian supporters of Republicans, Rick Scott, Ron DeSantis, Brian Mast (18thFLCD) & all other Republican statewide candidates of all political parties, Republican, Democrat, Others & No Party Affiliation (Independents) had better get their butts in high speed gear and vote immediately for Scott, DeSantis, Mast and other statewide GOP gals & guys, like right now, & then turn in (Mail) your completed “Mail-In” ballots to your county elections commissioner..
With low life, Progressive, Socialist, Communist, Jew & Israel Hater, Black Racist, Democrat, Andrew Gillum running for Governor of Florida, many Democrats, others and Independents voters will choose to vote Republican, rather then allow this destructive moron, buffoon, and possible criminal, Gillum to be elected, where he will immediately move forward, unabated to destroy the great state of Florida.
Can there really be any citizens and voters in the great state of Florida, that even entertain for one second voting for this total Democrat Party total fraud of a human being? Go Figure!!!
I believe that you just explained this election swing and why the republicans held their own from State to State. The black vote will be underwhelming for either party.
I think the senate is a keeper for the pubs..the house is still worrisome! The demonRAT chances are demishing from retaking the house a tad, but still 3 WEEKS IS AN ETERNITY in politics anything can happen and Soros the globalist, the South America horde approaching the USA border with TONS OF KIDS, antifa etc can test the will of the people. You know the mediapukes will manufacture chaos to make the Republicans and the president look bad before the midterms. And you know the people will swallowed the lies line, hook and sinker!
The Florida Squeeze is a “Politics, History and Society from a Progressive Perspective” site.
It provides a nice insight into their distress.
The media stopped polling the FL election before Kav hearings .
The last poll showed it tied . The post Kav polls killed the media narrative so they stopped them . Desantis hired a new campaign manager and has new attack ads flying on the airwaves plus we have Desantis yard signs .
I I have no idea who Baris is but has he paid attention lately ? I keep reading negative comments but its from Sept activities .
Dems aren’t worried. Workers in the Elections offices in Broward and Dade counties are going to be churning out fake ballots by the tens of thousands. They’ll make up the deficit in a few days.
Agree. Millenials may stay home, too, from all the old Democrats’ junk they’re seeing & hearing.
Don’t trust anything that comes out. Just get to the polls...and VOTE!!
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