Latest Siena polls for NY House Races
Faso (R) up 5
Katko (R) up 15, this is big change, he was trailing in the last poll IIRC
Tenney (R) DOWN 2, bizarre as hers is the most GOP of the 3 districts going Trump by a wide margin, her challenger though is the best funded of the 3 by far.
Any idea what’s going on with Tenny? Bad polling? Underfunded?
If we hold all three of these, it’s gonna be darn hard for the Ds to take the Hosue.
Here in AZ, the turnout was overwhelming, but was “lackluster” according to a top GOP guy, for Enema’s district House candidate and for McSally’s district.
We need a hold and a flip here between those two and O’Halleran’s.
Meanwhile, Antonio Sabato, Jr. told me, “I believe I will win.” Says his race is in good shape. Ventura wold be a flip.
Still looking at flipping two MN and one NV seat.
“Tenney (R) DOWN 2, bizarre as hers is the most GOP of the 3 districts going Trump by a wide margin, her challenger though is the best funded of the 3 by far.”
Katko always has outperformed the GOP in his district and has the advantage of being not only the GOP nominee, but also on the ballot lines of the Conservative Party, Reform Party and Independence Party (the last of which endorses Democrats maybe half the time, so it’s a big get), which could swing a couple of percentage points towards him. Katko’s Democrat opponent (Balter) is on the Democrat, Working Families Party and Women’s Equality Party ballot lines If Katko loses, then there really is a Democrat “wave”; I think that Katko will win by around 8%-10%.
Faso is a freshman, so it remains to be seen whether he can become entrenched like Katko has. Like Katko, though, Faso will be on the ballot lines of the Republican Party, Conservative Party, Reform Party and Independence Party. Moreover, his Democrat opponent (Delgado) is on the Democrat and Women’s Equality Party ballot lines, but the Leftist vote will be split because one of the losers of the Democrat primary (I think that he was the frontrunner initially) will be on the Working Families Party ballot line and a former school-board member will be on the Green Party ballot line. I think that Faso will win by like 5% or more.
Tenney will have the toughest general election because Brindisi is a strong candidate and will be on the Democrat, Working Families Party, Women’s Equality Party and Independence Party ballot lines, with no other Leftists on the ballot. Tenney managed to get the Reform Party nomination along with the GOP and Conservative Party nods, and will have to work hard to win. Hopefully the “Republican moderates” in the district who sent Sherry Boehlert and Richard Hanna to Congress for all those years will vote for Tenney instead of for the Democrat. I think that it will be a 1%-3% point race.
“....Tenney (R) DOWN 2, bizarre as hers is the most GOP of the 3 districts going Trump by a wide margin, her challenger though is the best funded of the 3 by far.”
I hope Tenney raises more $$. She is a STRONG conservative, and I like her far more than Faso (although I hope Faso wins his race as well).