Replies

“Tenney (R) DOWN 2, bizarre as hers is the most GOP of the 3 districts going Trump by a wide margin, her challenger though is the best funded of the 3 by far.”

It’s not just that Brindisi (Tenney’s challenger) is the best-funded of the three Democrat challengers, he also is the best candidate of the three (which also helps explain why he’s the best-funded of the three). He’s a state assemblyman so he has run and won elections before, has a record to which he can point, and knows how to deal with the media. Faso’s opponent is some lawyer who decided to go into politics and whose first electoral run is for Congress, and Katko’s opponent is a feminist college professor and “community organizer” with no prior political experience.

Katko always has outperformed the GOP in his district and has the advantage of being not only the GOP nominee, but also on the ballot lines of the Conservative Party, Reform Party and Independence Party (the last of which endorses Democrats maybe half the time, so it’s a big get), which could swing a couple of percentage points towards him. Katko’s Democrat opponent (Balter) is on the Democrat, Working Families Party and Women’s Equality Party ballot lines If Katko loses, then there really is a Democrat “wave”; I think that Katko will win by around 8%-10%.

Faso is a freshman, so it remains to be seen whether he can become entrenched like Katko has. Like Katko, though, Faso will be on the ballot lines of the Republican Party, Conservative Party, Reform Party and Independence Party. Moreover, his Democrat opponent (Delgado) is on the Democrat and Women’s Equality Party ballot lines, but the Leftist vote will be split because one of the losers of the Democrat primary (I think that he was the frontrunner initially) will be on the Working Families Party ballot line and a former school-board member will be on the Green Party ballot line. I think that Faso will win by like 5% or more.

Tenney will have the toughest general election because Brindisi is a strong candidate and will be on the Democrat, Working Families Party, Women’s Equality Party and Independence Party ballot lines, with no other Leftists on the ballot. Tenney managed to get the Reform Party nomination along with the GOP and Conservative Party nods, and will have to work hard to win. Hopefully the “Republican moderates” in the district who sent Sherry Boehlert and Richard Hanna to Congress for all those years will vote for Tenney instead of for the Democrat. I think that it will be a 1%-3% point race.

You, Impy, and fm are always unbelievable fonts of information.

All three of you should be political advisors somewhere. It’s a shame that dicknipples like Steve Schmidt or Cheri Succubus have jobs and you guys aren’t paid millions.

“..Tenney managed to get the Reform Party nomination along with the GOP and Conservative Party nods, ..”

That’s good to hear, so it seems like what she needs is more funding to help her catch up with her Dem opponent’s funding. 2 points behind is within the margin of error, and there’s a lot of time left before the election.