Posted on 07/10/2018 6:52:31 AM PDT by Liberty7732
President Trump’s announcement Monday of District of Columbia federal appeals court Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court creates a likely win-win for Trump and Republicans.
But while the Democratic/media establishment talking points were well lined up ahead of whoever was the nominee, the reality is that there is almost nothing Democrats can do about it. Thanks to Sen. Harry Reid’s short-sighted power play changing the rules on how judges are confirmed when he was Majority Leader, it now only requires 51 votes — or 50 votes plus the Vice President — to approve Kavanaugh.
The Republicans are at 51 in the Senate right now. So both pro-choice Republican Senators, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, would have to vote against Kavanaugh. But they have both already voted for him to be on the appeals court, one step below the Supreme Court. They both voted for Justice Neil Gorsuch last year. The likelihood of them voting against him now is remarkably thin.
But there is more to the Democrats’ hurdle of blocking Kavanaugh.
Five Democrat Senators are running for re-election this November in traditionally red states that Trump won by double digits. Five more are running in states Trump won by smaller margins, including Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott leads Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson in the polls for that Senate seat. (Although Nelson pre-emptively said he would vote against whoever was the nominee — so much for advise and consent.) Their re-elections hinge on being seen as centrists willing to work with the President. But the #resistance wing of the Democratic Party will be firing endless barrages at Kavanaugh and pushing every Democrat Senator to vote against him while hoping to flip one or two Republican votes. Highly unlikely.
It’s a bad position for these five Democrat incumbents: Joe Manchin, W.V; Heidi Heitkamp, N.D.; Jon Tester, Mont.; Claire McCaskill, Mo. and Joe Donnelly, Ind. If they stay centrist in appearance and vote to approve Kavanaugh then their odds of re-election improve, but Trump and the GOP (and America) win the new Supreme Court Justice going away. If they cave to their liberal base, then Trump-supporters in their states will be more fired up to come out and work against them, perhaps costing them their re-elections. Also good for Trump and Republicans.
It is just a very long shot that Democrats and two Republicans could stop this nomination. The timing of this fight is beneficial for Trump and the GOP.
It’s also imperative to appreciate the historicity of this moment, the opportunity laid before the President and his supporters.
Trump’s appointment of Justice Neil Gorsuch has proven to be everything conservatives could want as Gorsuch showed his metal as a Constitutionalist judge, opining based on the U.S. Constitution and establishing a firm, traditional American understanding in his first cases issued two weeks ago. In every one, he was solidly in the line of the late, great Justice Antonin Scalia, whom he replaced.
But now, with the nomination of Kavanaugh to replace the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, Trump and Republicans have the opportunity to cement a pro-Constitution, pro-traditional American majority on the Supreme Court for the first time in generations. This is not a conservative vs. liberal breakdown in the sense of normal politics, as the media simplistically paints it, but a Constitutional vs. political activist court division. Political conservatives want originalist, textualist judges even if they do not rule on an issue the way conservatives want. Liberals want judges who act as a third law-making body, pushing a progressive agenda.
Kennedy was a swing vote on cases, sometimes with the Constitutionalist wing and sometimes with the progressive activist wing. But he himself was not a Constitutionalist. He flopped all around absent a grounding legal philosophy, depending on his personal views of the issue, not the law.
Kavanaugh can replace Kennedy as a strong originalist like Gorsuch and cement the Constitutionalist majority.
From all conservative Trump supporters to all Never-Trumper conservatives: You’re welcome.
Time for John McCain to “go on to his great reward” so we can hopefully get someone other than his wife seated in time for the upcoming vote.
Does anyone remember in the now-fading history of this Republic when politicians acted on behalf of the people, rather than themselves?
I won’t be guilted out of saying “This isn’t my first choice”
Historicity ?
Wow.
People all along the political spectrum, including many here on FR, appear to be losing their minds over the nomination of this guy.
Not really. Its far from a done deal.
It’s a very thin margin right now, and Mitch should get this through as quickly as possible, despite the need for the deliberative appearance—e.g., his meeting with the senators individually, committee and other deliberative processes. (If something were to happen to that majority, then the vote would best be delayed until January, when the GOP should have a couple more senators.)
Small quibble. It’s mettle not metal.
Mettle definition courage, fortitude, disposition, temperament.
Both of the pro-choice Republican Senators will vote no. That is why McCain announce he would vote yes.
President Trump threw the “progs” off their game by nominating XY instead of XX for the SCOTUS.
bookmark
he’s a very selfish man
What is it that gives you such great confidence in Kavanaugh? I’m not trying to instigate an argument or be sarcastic, just really curious. Have you considered ties to George W. Bush, support from GOP establishment, Washington DC (i.e., the Swamp) orientation, and his teaching law at Harvard, Yale and Georgetown (ideological nurseries for liberals)? I think there are valid reasons to have some concerns about him.
I think it would be quite cynical for the PResident to play a person this way unless they were in on it. I doubt anyone would want to be dragged through the process and possible disclosures only to be a decoy.
Neither one of them will vote against Kavanaugh. I don’t think either one of them ever voted against a GOP Supreme Court nominee.
Correct on both counts.
>>I think it would be quite cynical for the PResident to play a person this way unless they were in on it. I doubt anyone would want to be dragged through the process and possible disclosures only to be a decoy. <<
Not enough time for him to be a decoy. From now until the end of time (or our Constitution which is what the democrats want), SCOTUS appointments will ONLY be when the majority Senate and POTUS are the same party.
rbg’s seat after she finally fails the apnea test will go unfilled for a long time.
And don’t forget he worked for Kagan. As in the days of the Bushbots, some Freepers are closet moderates or just dismiss any criticism in the same veign as blindly as do their liberal cousins.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.