Posted on 04/12/2018 9:15:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Is Russia negotiating missile strikes as a method of appeasing Donald Trump? The Washington Post reports that Russia has shifted gears from confrontation to mitigation with the US after assisting Bashar al-Assad’s capture of the rebel stronghold Douma. At first, Moscow threatened a military conflict if Trump followed through on his threat to punish Assad for yet another use of chemical weapons that Russia had guaranteed were destroyed:
Russian officials on Thursday sought to tamp down public fears of a looming conflict with the United States, even as Syrian government forces took control of the town where they are suspected of carrying out a chemical attack last weekend. …
Russian officials in recent days had warned of the possibility of a direct military confrontation with the United States as a result of a U.S. strike. Any missile attack that puts Russian lives at risk, Moscow has said, would result in Russia striking back at the missiles and at the planes or ships that launched them.
Today, however, they’ve changed their tune to the point of signaling that a nominal strike on targets without Russian personnel might not get a response. In fact, Russian military sources suggest that they will help coordinate the strikes to ensure no Russian casualties:
In the wake of Trumps Wednesday tweet warning Russia of a planned U.S. missile strike, however, Moscow appears to be trying to make clear it does not want a war and that a limited attack that doesnt risk Russian lives would not precipitate a military response.
I rule out a scenario in which the United States will intentionally strike a facility in Syria where Russian servicemen are located, Military Sciences Academy vice president Sergei Modestov said in Thursdays edition of the government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta.
The Kommersant newspaper quoted anonymous Defense Ministry sources as saying that Russias General Staff was in touch with the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and expected to receive coordinates on airstrike targets from the Pentagon in order to avoid Russian casualties.
That might explain why Trump appeared to walk back his threat to strike Syria this morning, a day after promising to rain “smart” missiles down on Assad:
Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our Thank you America?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 12, 2018
Russians apparently feared that Trump was about to go all-in on Assad:
President Trumps desire to prevent future chemical attacks in Syria has fueled speculation that the U.S. leader may authorize an attack that is more far-reaching than the one he launched a year ago.
A larger strike, possibly including stealth aircraft and strikes on multiple sites, could inflict lasting damage to military facilities and economic infrastructure that have been vital to President Bashar al-Assads ability to regain his grip on Syria seven years into a grinding war.
But a wider attack will face multiple immediate and longer-term risks, including the possibility of a dangerous escalation with Russia, Assads main military backer, in a country that Moscow has used as a testing ground for some of its most sophisticated weaponry.
It’s not just the US preparing to strike Assad, though. Theresa May has sent an attack group from the British navy to the coast of Syria to join the US in its reprisals. France affirmed its support for new attacks on Syria this morning, making it yet another diplomatic nightmare for the Russians. If they can hold down the damage while allowing some punitive action that’s limited to just Assad, Vladimir Putin might just ring that up as the cost of doing business.
Putin’s worried about another player looking to reset the battlefield entirely. He called Benjamin Netanyahu earlier to ask him to stop attacking Iranian positions in Syria. Netanyahu gave him the answer you’d expect:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday, and the Russian leader urged Israel not to take action in Syria and to threaten its security. Israeli officials confirmed the call took place and said that Netanyahu told Putin that Israel will not permit Iran to set up a military presence in Syria.
The news of the telephone call between Netanyahu and Putin appeared as Netanyahu took the stage in Israel’s main Holocaust memorial event and issued a threat to Iran not to “test Israel’s resolve.” The Russians announced the call in statement on the website of the Kremlin, which specified that Putin insisted it is “important” to maintain Syria’s sovereignty.
Putin’s trying to head off yet another proxy war in its newly won back yard. It may already be too late for that:
The air raid that Israel is said to have mounted Monday against the Iranian airbase called T4 in Syria was apparently a watershed moment in Irans aspiration to establish a local foothold. The bombing raid had significant results compared to previous attacks, and Tehrans threats to retaliate make the collision course already marked with Israel more likely. An Iranian retribution may lead in turn to an Israeli response that could almost entirely wipe out Irans military presence in Syria. …
Its been half a year now that the leadership in Jerusalem the prime minister, defense minister, cabinet ministers and chief of staff have been openly stating that as far as theyre concerned, a new line has been drawn in the Syrian sand. Israel will do what it takes to frustrate Irans military establishment there.
Based on foreign media reports, these threats were backed by acts: first with attacks ascribed to Israel in which it reportedly reacted to fire from battles in the Golan between the Assad forces and the rebels that seeped over the border; Iranian transponders and intelligence outposts on the border were also bombed. …
The latest attack ascribed to Israel exposes Irans real intentions: Major General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and a crony of Khameneis, is building an extensive, smart system in Syria, aimed against Israel. The nature of this activity is being kept secret from Russia, which sees itself as allied with the axis supporting Assad. Its dimensions are apparently also secret from top Iranians as well: President Hassan Rohani balks at increasing investment in the Quds Force and in the wars that Soleimani is pursuing in the region.
For Russia and the Assad regime, it is a big headache. A collision between Israel and Iran would imperil the regimes ambition of regaining control and could have other prices for Assad. Soleimani, according to Israeli pundits, is in effect undermining Russian interests in Syria. Meanwhile Assad lost a lot of his antiaircraft power because of Israeli raids after the F-16 was shot down.
The US might be looking to make Syria and Russia pay a steep price for its alliance with Iran in Syrian territory. If so, then allowing the US a few targets for a one-off reprisal might be the cheapest way out of the conundrum for Putin.
Does aside == Does Assad...
You are assuming that Assad did it last year too. That may be true, but what is the evidence?
Does aside [sic] seem like a rationale person to you?
If you get your way and Assad is removed, I think it's likely that whatever Syria becomes as a result will be a lot less "rational." But that will make the deep state happy. Under Assad, Christians and other groups have survived.
Yes. Cause we don't live in Bedrock. Or something like that.
And evidently - She must have tried to slit her throat recently? Or hang herself?
First off, nowhere have I ever said removal of Assad was my goal or the admins goal. It might be a deep state goal, but don’t attribute that to me. I have espoused it was a mistake when Clinton/Obama disposed of Muammar Gaddafi. The dictator has played a role in keeping worse factions under thumb.
As to the comment of “Under Assad, Christians and other groups have survived”, I don’t know. I have no personal experience with that. How do I know that’s not just propaganda and that life as a Christian in Syria is not hell? Seems like many have been displaced by the conflict. Do you know that Christians have it better under Assad, or is that just a talking point?
One article that you could google states that last spring “Syrian Christians rejected protestors’ demands for embattled president Bashar al-Assad to resign. But Christians did broadly endorse democratic reforms that would bring an end to dictatorship.” That doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement of Assad. Sounds more like a people terrified of the circumstances and afraid that things could be worse. Some may have to learn to pick up arms and defend themselves.
This is the deep state’s worst nightmare if Russia and US start working together on this. They need a war between us in order to help cover up their crimes. McStain is deeply saddened if this is true.
CGato
[ Russia To US: Lets Coordinate Your Punitive Airstrikes On Assad ]
SOP to keep something from getting out of control.
Been done for decades.
[They need a war between us in order to help cover up their crimes.]
It seems like the Clinton - Obama Crime Machine was pushing for just that in 2016 after the election.
With John McCain doing his happy dance.
[Israel and SA on the same team. Who would have thunk]
Scripture. Ezekiel 38. SA is Sheba and Dedan. They have a common enemy now - a nuclear Iran.
During that attack, it does not appear Sheba and Dedan do anything but they actually question the invasion.
Iran and her allies lose, too. Big time.
Russia admitted no such thing. I'll give you points for trying though.
You’ve got the right idea there. Some posters like to pick and choose their history about Assad’s regime “supporting” and “protecting” Christians. Which is a bit of sophistry. One only needs to look into what was a significant Christian enclave and in Christian Beirut the economic center in effect of the ME. Here, those not towing the Assad regime line are gun down and blown to bits and prominent Christian leaders in Lebanon who opposed Assad’s interventions in Lebanese politics have been regularly assassinated by Assad agents one of the prominent ones being Pierre Gemayel, a prominent Christian politician in Lebanon, was shot dead by gunmen in a Beirut suburb on 21 November 2006. All evidence points to Assad.
The Maronite Christian General Michael Aoun was appointed as President of the Council of Ministers by the president in the late 80’s - Muslims opposed his appointment BECAUSE he was a Christian. He had regional and popular support but one thing - the Syrians backed his opposition fought his forces and Aoun fled when the Syrian forces occupied the presidential palace.
Some might point to various interventions in Lebanon which seemingly helped the Christians but the reality was that it was only done because Assad’s regime would control the political process in Lebanon. You don’t play along you’re a dead man and often Maronite Christians were the victims.
This video is over 30 min but worth watching:
Thanks, I appreciate your informative post. Reasoned argument is hard to come by here as of late.
“In the wake of Trumps Wednesday tweet warning Russia of a planned U.S. missile strike, however, Moscow appears to be trying to make clear it does not want a war and that a limited attack that doesnt risk Russian lives would not precipitate a military response.”
And that ought to sit just fine with Russia’s Syrian client. Just hit the wogs, and we’re ok. But Russia’s folly is America’s fortune.
Ahh the heck with it....Send several hydro nukes over and make Damascus a “ruinous heap”/s
Though I bet this is where all this crap in Syria is leading up to anyway!
You posted a great outline on what is going on.
Which make we wonder why you asserted Russia conceded Assad’s guilt.
It’s interesting how it’s all coming together. The only thing needed is a fuse and bamo, biblical prophecy in our times.But I’d rather not be around to see the carnage. Has to be nukes because of what chapter 39 says quarantining for seven months and enough weaponry and fuel to last seven years. Then again it would be amazing to see all nations state The God of Abraham, Issac and Jacob is the God of this world about ready to move in since the price has been paid and the deed to Earth and our souls has been earned by the Lamb of God.
Its likely that the US and Russia are discussing the matter, but I don't believe much beyond that.
Apparently there are some hard-liners on this forum still living in the Cold War days. Some have spoken approvingly of a military confrontation with Russia.
Sure, we would “win” - at a cost perhaps of 1 million Americans dead versus 5 million Russians. That would be unthinkable.
I was there at the Fulda Gap as American forces stood guard against the likely Soviet invasion route. Calmer heads prevailed until the Soviet Union dissolved.
I was on the Golan Heights years ago as Israeli jets SCREAMED low overhead on their way to destroy the Syrian air force - from which the Syrians never recovered.
Many Americans apparently do not understand what every Israeli knows: that the greatest threat to Israel is (soon to be) nuclear-capable Iran: specifically the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis. Iran is now establishing bases in Syria, and Hezbollah reportedly has tens of thousands of (non-nuclear) missiles ready to strike Israel. That would devastate the country. Sure, the Arrow system is excellent, but there are nowhere near the number of missiles needed to shoot down all those missiles.
That’s why Israel is intent upon bringing down Assad - Iran’s proxy in Syria. Bashir’s father Hafez at least learned his lesson after the Arab-Israeli wars and more or less kept the radicals in check.
The best solution would be for Trump to take up Putin’s offer to cooperate on attacking those directly responsible for the atrocities, and also to work together to finally eradicate Islamic radicalism in the region.
And they must be eradicated. The Western mind cannot comprehend their blind fanaticism. I lived among them for years in the Middle East, and can testify that they oppose any “moderation” - called “collaborators with Israel”. Anyone suspected of being willing to accept Israel was dragged from their home in the night and butchered. That was many years ago; today the situation is much worse.
There are rays of hope: Egypt’s al-Sisi appears to be a moderate, as is King Hussein of Jordan. And lately even the Saudis have warmed up to Israel (out of fear of their dreaded enemy Iran).
In the meantime, every effort should be made to locate and vaporize Major General Qasem Soleimani, Iranian commander of the Quds Force, and ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. That would at least be a symbolic victory.
I’m not a member of the “Israel right-or-wrong” party, but I have dealt personally with Israeli soldiers, e.g., when they knocked on our door in the night in search of terrorists (we lived near a couple of refugee camps). I must say they were admirably respectful, and I have seen them show great restraint towards protesting Palestinians, who by the way would hurl deadly bricks at our windshield (I’m not Jewish, if you’re wondering).
On the whole, however, there appears to be no earthly solution for the undying hatred of radical Islam towards Israel. But it will be one day end, at Armageddon.
Just my two cents
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