Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
He just wants a reason to bitch. He’s a never-Trumper. He’s done nothing but whine and bitch since Trump put himself in the ring - but he thinks none of us see through his crap veneer.
Do you have a link?
Why don’t you go back to DU? You’d truly be more at home there.
Entire tomes have been written about why that statement is so ignorant.
Folks, the idea is to reduce taxes.
Get with the program.
This isn’t, I like this tax cut because it’s okay, and I don’t like that tax cut because it isn’t okay.
Every dime freed up and moved into the private sector will spur the economy.
Since when do we not like ANY TAX CUT that is offered?
Good freakin grief. Choose to be happy.
Agree - but the way some of these so-called thinkers react is to always toss the good for the perfect. So we never even get to first base while they call the shots. A half loaf is better than no loaf, but they’d rather starve - which is fine if they are the only ones to go hungry. As usual the reality is that they take the rest of us down with them, selfish pricks.
If the money is repatriated at a lower tax rate, yes, I really think it should have to be spent on US jobs for US citizens and to raise lower and middle class wages. This money was acquired to a great degree by moving manufacturing overseas to avoid paying wages to US workers. No tariff was charged to bring those cheap-labor goods into the US. Why should companies that did that be rewarded? Keep in mind that with banking crisis money, a lot of those funds were used to line the pockets of upper tier employees and to buy out smaller more local banks that were competing with them. Do you really think we should take the risk of that money being used in such a way, after getting a tax break?
Of course we should be concerned. The Sounds of Silence about EVerify say all we need to know about the intentions to use this money to bolster a return of the middle-class economy.
Why are you subsidizing a blue state? Move. When these high tax states lose enough population, they will also lose representation in Congress. There is no reason that I should be subsidizing your state tax deduction.
Wading into the water here. . .
if home prices do indeed drop in every state as you cite. . .
can this not also benefit the millions who are priced out of the housing market?
Living in the sf bay area, where the median home price is well nigh a million. . . you have to have the salary of two doctors to get in. . .
I agree 100%.
Well stated!
Don’t forget, how much was that $500,000 house worth twenty years ago, or thirty. Houses appreciate so at some point, all houses will exceed that fixed number and everyone will lose this deduction.
LOL. Nice handle.
That wasn't me who did that. I am not a DU poster. I have been here on FR for 19 years.
On the tax bill, the outcome I hoped for did not prevail. That is the way things are. What am I going to do? Write a book called "What Happened?" and go on tour?
Trump promised tax cuts for the middle class ("the forgotten men and women") during his campaign. I have the quotes and videos.
This tax bill isn't what he promised. That is not my doing or my fault.
Time for me to move on. I'll simply be cutting bigger checks to the IRS.
I don't have to like it. Folks on your side want me to.
I don't know why.
“It’s time to reform States and local taxes and stop the growth of governments.”
It’s time to admit the founders were wrong. All this crazy talk about federalism, states’ rights, and that “by the people” was all just so much blather.
The benevolent Feds shall rule over the states and peoples. All power came from the Feds, and all power shall accrue to the Feds.
Those who would create gods should be careful of power shifts.
“selfish pricks.”
Yes, they are, and they come in all political persuasions. One of the paramount reasons we’re in the pickle we are today is that fact that everyone sees “the way to prosperity and freedom” through the narrow prism of their own self-interest. The most obvious example is those who continue to go to NFL games. Thirty years ago, if the NFL had tried to pull this crap, they would have been out of business in a couple of months.
I never said that. I said the House and Senate tax bills were written for and by the donors.
Even Rep Chris Collins (R-NY) acknowledged that.
Top GOP congressman: My donors told me to pass the Republican tax bill or 'don't ever call me again'
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The basic structure of both the House and Senate tax bills is this:
- lower the corporate rate from 35% to 20%
- make up for the lost revenue by eliminating or capping deductions for the middle class and upper middle class
You talking about me?
I am not (nor was I ever) a never-Trumper.
“Houses appreciate so at some point, all houses will exceed that fixed number and everyone will lose this deduction.”
Forest; trees.
At some point, people may realize that a malevolent, all-powerful, centralized government was built by its victims’ willing consent to incremental taxation and relentless growth.
Just curious. How much federal tax did you pay last year?
I read earlier that Flake wouldn’t vote for it if it didn’t have daca amnesty in it. Anyone know if that’s in it?
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