Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
You speak wisdom.
I haven’t heard anything about a flat or fair tax lately.
Also, npt a peep from what was a “ movement” not so long ago.
One of their catchy phases went something like Taxed Enough Already.
Not to get off topic but another catchy phase from the not to distant past, that many were fond of, “Enforce the existing law!”
I just lost my ability to write off my high California taxes on my fed returns. Whatever. That’s my state’s fault, not the feds. I’ll take this. It is worth the corporate income tax relief, which will funnel down to all of us.
We are in the same boat with Cali Income Taxes, state/local sales tax and property taxes and fees on everything that has wheels and floats with any type of power.
However, the choice to stay here is ours.
“I agree and I live in New York State. If this “unmasks” Cuomo and the democrats’ high tax chokehold on our state even if I have to pay more (hopefully temporarily), it is worth it as a patriot.”
Same here in Hellinois so it will $uck for most of us here but for me personally it seems like it will mostly be a wash. I lost my high paying job, downsized probably because of rising health insurance costs in May of 2015. I found a better one right away (within 72 hours actually) with much less stress and a far better strategic position career wise, only at about half my prior salary. I'll easily fall into the lowest bracket and the standard deduction will make doing my taxes easier. I ran out of things to itemize last year but my medical expenses were so high I squeaked out one more year, so it's ok with me. Unfortunately almost everyone I know is going to get hit hard. I think that will put extreme pressure on the state legislature to break their high tax and spend addiction or it will grow to the breaking point and may just swing the elections here to favor the republicans. A rare thing.
I had the unexpected chance to meet with the Governor Thursday, as the meeting was breaking up, I told him to "Swing away Merrill, Merrill, swing away." and I hope he does, he's got nothing left to lose.
“The GOPe destroyed or capped almost every measly tax deduction we had (mortgage interest, SALT taxes, medical expenses, student loans, employment tuition benefits, etc.) all so the GOPe donors and corporations could make out like bandits. And someone had to “pay for” their huge tax cut in a revenue neutral budget - you and me. They soaked the middle class.”
There are hundreds of people on FR that think that’s a lie. They don’t believe anyone will pay higher taxes...and if they do, they DESERVE to do so.
The answer is to change the deductibility of corporate debt for tax purposes- companies borrow to fund tax buybacks to inflate the share prices for the vested shares held by executives; and waste money on ego driven M&A.
If the tax laws made corporate debt punitive, companies would need to practice sound governance to expand-and find the expansions by using shares. In that case share prices would more closely represent enterprise value rather than froth and bubbles.
“‘...When this tax plan goes through, we lose $10,000 of deductions, mostly property tax and medical....”
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A late change was put in to allow up to $10,000 in PROPERTY tax deductions and the medical deduction threshold was “liberalized” and changed to any medical expense amount above 7.5% of income is deductible instead of the current restriction to amounts above 10% of income.
Home values in CA and the Acela corridor were unrealistic anyway.
I have and did when it came to Juan Mcain presidential run and I got banned for it. You seem to have better luck.
And it seems to me people claiming tax payers are being subsidized when they deduct state income taxes are claiming that money belongs to the federal government. To deny the federal government is wrong. So much for states rights, decentralized governance...
Don’t you dare interrupt their doom and hatred with facts. For people who are so impacted and complaining you would think they would know the latest about the final senate bill.
That problem have to be addressed. The States and local governments are getting away with over taxing their taxpayers because the Federal Tax Deductions. It’s the greatest excuse the States used to increase taxes. Time for the States to reform their own taxes and rain in their own governments.
So if the States and local governments advocates for an 80% taxation on their taxpayers with the notion that they can write them off when will you consider those taxes too much? That is the problem with electing pro tax corruption politicians in those States.
It’s time to reform States and local taxes and stop the growth of governments.
WHOA! This needs a fix in order to be suitable on a conservative website!
"The corporatist entities are keeping more of their own money."
BOHICA
You are blaming the wrong government there.
When you ‘deduct taxes’ paid to over government entities, that is supporting the other governments (state, city, county, local, and any other deductions).
That allows those things being ‘deducted’ to go on robbing peoples pockets. Think solar panels and how the obambi group used our taxes to not only subsidize them, but also gave big deductions to people who bought them. While they also had ties to those companies. It not only robs us in the long run. It takes away our control over our own money.
Those ‘deductions’, and yes, including deductions for other governments taxes, is a lie. That is just us being forced to support liberal government entities to continue over taxing and pet projects.
Truth, in a hot thread.
Why are you on this kick? How many posts about raising taxes do you need to make?
This bill lowers taxes, that’s why the nervous nellies are complaining about it raising the deficit and wanting triggers to put the tax rate back up.
There may be a small subset of folks whose taxes may go up a small % with the plans that have been passed through the chambers. Not saying there will be but may be.
However the vast majority of individual & business taxes will go down substantially. So this line of dialog about raising taxes is inappropriate to the situation at hand.
THIS!
We live in the high tax blue state of Maryland and your post (and infool7’s post #224) capture my thoughts exactly. In the near term I’ll pay higher taxes but these changes are needed for the good of our nation as a whole. The changes help unshackle us from being tempted to support the Statists. Perhaps, after getting over their initial pain, some critics of this plan will redirect their anger and rage in the proper direction — to the ‘RATS and RINOs in their own state who are placing onerous taxes on them.
One can dream.
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