It’s Your Losing Strategy, Not Our Candidate [Virginia election losses]

Fairfax Free Citizen ^ | November 8, 2017 | Jonathon A Moseley

[kabar]

The whole reason for nominating Ed Gillespie was that Establishment Ed would win *MORE* votes than a conservative would.

The voters nominated Gillespie to be the standard bearer. If Conservatives are the preferred candidates, then how did Gillespie get enough votes to beat Stewart?

Who defines what a moderate or a conservative is. Gillespie is a pro-lifer who supports the 2nd amendment. He is allegedly against sanctuary cities and wants to eradicate MS-13. We have so-called Conservatives like Ted Cruz and Mike Lee who support doubling or tripling H-1B visas. We have the Koch brothers and their subsideraries like Americans for Prosperity pushing open borders and free trade. The Chamber of Commerce is trying to block much of the Trump agenda.

Trump is not a conservative but pushes much of the conservative agenda. How effective are these labels in defining whom we should support and not support? The National Review devoted an entire edition to stop Trump and many of the #NeverTrumpers like Steven Hayes, Bill Kristol, Evan McMillian, etc. call themselves conservatives. Ted Cruz withheld his endorsement of Trump at the convention. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker openly mock and criticize President Trump. Can anyone imagine a Dem doing that when one of their own is under attack? Hell they held a pity party at the WH when Clinton got impeached.

Define moderate for me. What are the litmus tests for a conservative?

[Moseley]

The voters nominated Gillespie to be the standard bearer. If Conservatives are the preferred candidates, then how did Gillespie get enough votes to beat Stewart?

________________________________________________________

Because too much of the Republican Party is convinced of the false theory that a moderate will win.

Republican primary voters supported Gillespie on the “promise” that Gillespie would win whereas Stewart would not.

That theory is false. The GOP establishment has deceived itself and deceived the voters.

The evidence is clear: The conservatives got more votes than the moderate, on the same day, on the same ballot, by the same voters.

[Moseley]

Remember: that was the appeal during the primary: Gillespie is the one who can win.

He couldn’t.

And he did worse than conservative candidates.

[Moseley]

Not only that but the Lt. Governor’s race was just about ignored compared to the top of the ticket.

[Moseley]

Who defines what a moderate or a conservative is. Gillespie is a pro-lifer who supports the 2nd amendment. He is allegedly against sanctuary cities and wants to eradicate MS-13
________________________________________________

Ed Gillespie defines himself as a moderate (or centrist).

https://pjmedia.com/jchristianadams/gillespies-virginia-loss-messages-2004-tactics-1996/

Ed Gillespie is pro-amnesty and a prime mover in promoting amnesty.

Here is the definition of a moderate: Having paid campaign consultants write fake Pro-Life issues and second amendment issues on your website that you don’t actually believe.

[kabar]

No, Virginia has been transformed into a solid blue state through Republican INCOMPETENCE. The GOP has been losing for decades by DEFAULT to the Democrat Party.

You seem to ignore the impact of the changing demography of VA. Immigration has changed the electoral politics of this country. We have brought in over 30 million LEGAL PERMANENT IMMIGRANTS since 1990 or the equivalent of the current population of Canada. Immigrants use welfare to a much greater extent than the native born. 87% of the 1.1 million legal immigrants we bring in annually are minorities as defined by the USG. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one Dem. VA has one of the highest number of immigrants of any state in the country. The real incompetence of the GOP is its failure to reduce the level of immigration and number of guest workers. Both parties have abandoned the American worker.

They ensured that the Democrat Chuck Robb won the US Senate seat. Virginia has been sliding blue ever since.

The facts don't support that.

[Moseley]

No doubt but Jill Vogel was a MAGA candidate and still lost by 140,000.

_________________________________________

But the theory that was put to the test was that a moderate / centrist Ed Gillespie could do BETTER than a conservative or MAGA candidate.

The theory — now proven wrong (again and again and again) — that moderates do better was put to the test and failed.

The establishment’s religious dogma that centrist candidates do better than conservatives was put to the test... and proven wrong.

It has always been proven wrong.

Just ask President Bob Dole. President Mitt Romney. President John McCain.

Heck, ask Senator Ed Gillespie who was supposed to beat Mark Warner in Virginia in 2014.

If Ed Gillespie were the answer, why didn’t he win for US Senate in 2014?

[Moseley]

Bottom line: It is time for the Republican establishment and their crooked campaign consultants to step aside, go home, and let the adults run elections.

[redcatcherb412]

There is NO WAY New Mexico only grew by 512 immigrants from 2010-2014 and can place that low in ranking. It grew more than that in just my city in the 4 corners in probably a month.

[kabar]

Republican turnout was down more than 500k from the Presidential election..

Democrat turnout was down 576,000 since the Presidential election.

Gillespie didn’t fire up the base or the MAGA vote.

Gillespie got more votes than any GOP gubernatorial candidate in VA history and the second most votes all time. Gillespie's vote total would have won every race since 1949 except this one.

the fact Jill outperformed Gillespie, proves MAGA outperforms GOPe...

Why did Romney receive 53,000 more votes in 2012 than Trump did in 2016?

Personally if the #2 outperformed the top of the ticket 2.5 points, not all that hard to believe hat MAGA been at the top of the ticket in the first place that a 4 point swing in the race would not be impossible, and a 4 point swing, the R wins....

LOL. If ifs and buts were like candy and nuts, what a fine world we would have. Vogel lost by 140,000 votes. It wasn't close.

So I don’t buy that VA is unwinable... Just have to have the right folks running with the right message.... the GOPe made sure that wasn’t going to happen.

You were woefully wrong this time in your predictions and you will be again in the future. I told you what would happen. Hear me now, believe me later.

[kabar]

You left out that Hillary got 1,981,473 votes. How many did Northam “leave on the table?”

[Rome2000]

Bankrupt welfare state ruled by a very thin, very rich Neo-Marxist ruling class and populated by a vast majority of low-income-to-poor non-whites and illegal/legal immigrants.

That scenario could actually be avoided.

[Antoninus]

The GOPe does cling to a losing strategy.

Their strategy is, "better a Democrat than a conservative." If they can't win, then having the Democrat win is viewed as an acceptable alternative.

Someday, conservatives will learn this.

[kabar]

I lived in McLean from 1979 to 2015. I did go overseas for about 20 of those years renting out my house on and off. The entire area has changed dramatically. One in three residents of Fairfax County is foreign born. In my area it is still very upscale populated by older residents along with an influx of two professional households that can afford to live there. Falls Church has become populated by a more diverse population including a large Muslim population replete with a large mosque. Lots of Latin Americans as well mostly from Central America.

Tysons Corner (I am only two miles from there) has become a booming metropolis including several metro stops. Traffic is heavy. The liberals have taken over.

VA is turning solid blue. NoVA is increasing in population while the rest of the state is declining in population for the most part. The wealth is increasingly being concentrated in NoVA. VA is gone in terms of the GOP in future statewide elections.

[Antoninus]

Aside from Virginia, the top birth state for Virginians is New York, having overtaken North Carolina in the 1990s, with the Northeast accounting for the largest number of migrants into the state by region.

Everything you said above is correct except for one thing. There is a conservative way to turn VA red again. It's called massively shrinking the federal government. Almost all of the new arrivals in NOVA are there to do government work or to service/lobby government institutions. Cut of the money supply, and those same people will all have to leave.

Do the Republicans have the gonads to do that? Of course not. But that's how it could be done.

[kabar]

Because too much of the Republican Party is convinced of the false theory that a moderate will win.

Was McDonnell a moderate? I was part of the Rep party in Fairfax County dutifully attending the FCRC, acting as a poll watcher, attending state conventions as a delegate, etc. I was at the convention when we got Jeff Frederick elected as Chairman of the VA GOP much to the chagrin of John Hager. And I was down in Richmond protesting Jeff's removal.

I conducted one on one briefings on immigration with Eric Cantor, George Allen, and yes, Ed Gillespie. I did others with Rep candidates and was part of the Middle Resolution screening committee on candidates. I also was part of the VA Tea Party and helped sponsor the Richmond convention. And I helped Dave Brat beat Cantor using 40,000 robocalls. I worked with Dave Albo on getting immigration-related legislation passed in the VA legislature, a number of which became law.

You can pontificate all you want about the GOP in VA. I am intimately familiar with all of it.

Republican primary voters supported Gillespie on the “promise” that Gillespie would win whereas Stewart would not.

Corey lost by less than a percent. I don't know how you can draw such conclusions in a race that was decided by a razor thin margin. Maybe Vogel got her additional votes from disgruntled Stewart voters who refused to vote for Gillespie.

The evidence is clear: The conservatives got more votes than the moderate, on the same day, on the same ballot, by the same voters.

It really proves nothing. Both lost big. Romney received 53,000 more votes than Trump. Romney received more votes in VA than any GOP Presidential candidate in history.

[kabar]

Remember: that was the appeal during the primary: Gillespie is the one who can win.

What else would you expect a candidate to say, especially one who almost took down Warner.

I don't care who the candiate was. Northam would have beat any of them. The resounding defeat of conservatives like Bob Marshall in the House of Delegates along with many other Rep incumbents should indicate the size and scope of the Dem victory. Before it is all over, there will be no elected Reps in NoVA. Even a RINO like Barbara Comstock is headed for defeat in 2018.

[kabar]

Ed Gillespie is pro-amnesty and a prime mover in promoting amnesty.

So was George Bush, the Gang of 8, the fourteen Rep senators who helped pass the amnesty bill in 2013 in the Senate. Rubio got more votes than Trump in 2016 in FL. Ted Cruz supported amnesty until he didn't.

Although Ed Meese said it was his worst mistake, Reagan presided over the 1986 amnesty (Simpson-Mazzoli).

[x]

Gillespie didn’t get the new MAGA voters to show up... if they had it would have been in spite of himself.

If there weren't enough of them last year to carry Virginia for Trump, why would there be enough this year to carry the state for Gillespie?

From the article:

The Ronald Reagan theory, time tested, is that campaigns must persuade. The establishment wants to simply be an ink blot test and match the electorate. Ronald Reagan moved the electorate. Put simply, conservatives propose to give voters actual reasons to vote for them. The establishment wants votes to simply fall in their laps, without any real effort. In fact, if you really talk to an establishment Republican they are allergic to the whole idea of persuading anyone. They want to cut deals with the static lay of the land, whereas conservatives want to run a dynamic, game-changing campaign.

Try running a "dynamic, game-changing campaign" in Massachusetts or Vermont or New York and see where it gets you.

Sometimes the time is right for something like that. Most of the time it isn't. And even when it does work for a Republican in a Democrat state (which Virginia apparently is now), the positions and strategy probably aren't going to please conservative purists.

Reagan would most likely have lost if he'd been nominated in 1976 or 1968. He was fortunate that he was nominated in a year when the electorate was responsive to his message. Gillespie could have followed a different strategy and most likely he would still have lost.

[kabar]

But the theory that was put to the test was that a moderate / centrist Ed Gillespie could do BETTER than a conservative or MAGA candidate.

Why do you keep repeating this nonsense? Vogel wasn't running for Governor. And she lost badly. Does this prove the theory that MAGA candidates can't win in VA? MAGA is not synonymous with conservative. Trump did worse than Romney.

Just ask President Bob Dole. President Mitt Romney. President John McCain.

I was a supporter of Trump the day he descended down the elevator. He defeated 16 other Reps despite no one giving him a chance of even getting the nomination. Were you supporting Trump from the beginning? Or were you supporting the "conservatives" like Cruz and Walker?

Heck, ask Senator Ed Gillespie who was supposed to beat Mark Warner in Virginia in 2014.

No one gave Gillespie a chance against Warner.