Posted on 11/07/2017 8:24:03 AM PST by Hojczyk
It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.
The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.
Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.
The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.
On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation.
Then, as you approach your exit, your module will enter deceleration lanes, exit and go to your final destination. You will be billed for the transportation. You will enter your credit card number or your thumbprint or whatever it will be then. The module will take off and go to its collection point, ready for the next person to call.
Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future.
A minority of individuals may elect to have personalized modules sitting at home so they can leave their vacation stuff and the kids' soccer gear in them. They'll still want that convenience.
The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.
(Excerpt) Read more at autonews.com ...
I’ll be dead in 50 years - I don’t care
“I lived in a small town in OK, rush hour around 4 pm resulted in a car ahead of you at the light, maybe one behind you too.”
I live in rural North Dakota, what’s a light?
dont see the part about a red barchetta , his white haired uncle,a fireside or the motor laws...
also doesnt rhyme , but Rush did not bother with that either,
No more mail delivery? I can see a module stopping every 30 feet or so. No more trips to get milk or the Sunday paper. I can see the waiting for a module when you live 50 miles from the nearest city. Not gonna happen that fast. People are not going to give up their freedom.
It is not a car problem it is a people problem and rest assured they have several plans to remedy it.
Hmmm. I have significant exposure to this technology. A recent demonstration showed a vehicle self-driving from Canada (London, ON) to the Michigan U.P. - which means tunnels (no GPS), side roads, freeways, construction, etc.. The vehicle drove the entire time with zero instances of the driver needing to take over.
The hurdles that remain are mostly mass production issues. Sensors being “automotive quality”, redundancy for safety, reducing costs, etc.. While most “future predictions” are false, I don’t see this as much of a leap. Every single car maker has such a program. Every related industry is going over the consequences. Right now the insurance industry loves it. A car doesn’t drink or get distracted, which covers a huge number of incidents. But what if there were (almost) none? City councils consider parking revenue, how will that change? Why have a car payment and insurance when I can order a ride for far less (per month)? ...which might be more luxurious too.
I love driving, I also see this is coming, soon. If the accident rates plummets, the question will soon be, “why do you drive manually? are you nuts? that’s immoral, you’re risking other peoples lives”. So even if it’s still legal, will you?
Back to horses, I guess.
Neil Peart is a better prophet than Bob Lutz. :)
How much you want to bet that it will be forbidden to drop anyone off, or pick them up, at a gun range, gun show, etc.
OK, maybe that is taking it a bit far, but without the ability to go where you want, when you want, liberty is curtailed or eliminated. This can be used/abused in much the same was as the availability of medical care.
Right there, Lutz establishes himself as a kook. There is zero chance of banning human driver cars within 20 years. There is still not a car that could safely drive fully-automated from somewhere in the NYC suburbs to LaGuardia Airport and pick up or drop off a passenger. Not even close. Add in darkness and weather conditions... give me a break. 20 years is a completely absurd figure for not only getting this right but switching all US public roads over and banning the current cars. Also consider the millions of miles of roads that will need to be prepared for this, with proper paint and signage and whatever else. Then there are the dirt roads. When the day does eventually come, automobiles should seem like small ball - by that time we should be going through the air.
Too many cars with one person in them. That’s what bicycles were for.
It can eliminate them very easily.
Bullshi'ite. If the market calls for cars that are still driven by people, that's what the market will produce. The only way it won't is if the government mandates driverless cars, and that means We The Sheeple will have pussed out and surrendered to Mother Government yet again. IOW, the only way it would happen is if we let it happen.
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!
Air cushion, add wings, will travel.
Dead people do not require freedom.
It's very convenient and reliable. I've used the Uber service myself dozens of times and never had a bad experience. For years, I avoided taxis as much as possible because of the awkwardness of trying to explain where you want to go (to somebody that usually speaks broken English) and the payment at the end of the ride. With Uber, you simply type all that in the app and a car shows up already knowing where you want to go. You can actually see the car (on the app) as it approached you. Payment is through the app so no money changes hands. No tipping required. While the app now has an option to tip, you don't have to decide until long after the driver is gone. I generally add on a tip by the way.
Before Uber, city people tended to have cars because public transportation (buses, subway) are generally an awful way to get around. Uber gives you a personal experience and you can at least fantasize that you are some big shot millionaire as you get into one.
So now many city people are deciding they don't need cars anymore. Younger people especially.
Once those Uber type cars are automated, it will make the experience even more personal. No human contact as you get ferried from place to place. You can read your book, sip your beer, whatever...there's real appeal to that kind of transportation.
I think the change will be very gradual. Those of us living today will always have the option to drive our own cars. But the trend will be for less and less of that as future generations come of age and and the automated cars improve.
I think we will first see it in major cities - entire streets will be off limits to personal drivers and only to automated vehicles. (I never seem them mixing together). Then you might have dedicated lanes on the interstates and highways for automated traffic as the next step.
I then see private vehicles getting a lot of tolls while the automated lanes see no tolls. Increasingly, driving your own car will be a more expensive and less desirable option.
That's my best guess on how we get to the future state. I'm thinking in terms of 50 to 100 years. I would be surprised if the full transition happened sooner. But I'm reasonably sure that a hundred years from now, a private automobile will be as rare as horse-drawn buggies are today.
Not saying it's good. But I do see it headed that way.
The disturbing thing is, no, he's not a kook, he's a car guy from way back and a Trump supporter. I think he's just overestimating the speed of adoption by decades myself, but I don't doubt it's coming.
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