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The transition is already happening in subtle ways. A lot of urban people are realizing that it is cheaper to not own a car and instead call for Uber, Lyft (or some other car service) for when they need to go somewhere.

It's very convenient and reliable. I've used the Uber service myself dozens of times and never had a bad experience. For years, I avoided taxis as much as possible because of the awkwardness of trying to explain where you want to go (to somebody that usually speaks broken English) and the payment at the end of the ride. With Uber, you simply type all that in the app and a car shows up already knowing where you want to go. You can actually see the car (on the app) as it approached you. Payment is through the app so no money changes hands. No tipping required. While the app now has an option to tip, you don't have to decide until long after the driver is gone. I generally add on a tip by the way.

Before Uber, city people tended to have cars because public transportation (buses, subway) are generally an awful way to get around. Uber gives you a personal experience and you can at least fantasize that you are some big shot millionaire as you get into one.

So now many city people are deciding they don't need cars anymore. Younger people especially.

Once those Uber type cars are automated, it will make the experience even more personal. No human contact as you get ferried from place to place. You can read your book, sip your beer, whatever...there's real appeal to that kind of transportation.

I think the change will be very gradual. Those of us living today will always have the option to drive our own cars. But the trend will be for less and less of that as future generations come of age and and the automated cars improve.

I think we will first see it in major cities - entire streets will be off limits to personal drivers and only to automated vehicles. (I never seem them mixing together). Then you might have dedicated lanes on the interstates and highways for automated traffic as the next step.

I then see private vehicles getting a lot of tolls while the automated lanes see no tolls. Increasingly, driving your own car will be a more expensive and less desirable option.

That's my best guess on how we get to the future state. I'm thinking in terms of 50 to 100 years. I would be surprised if the full transition happened sooner. But I'm reasonably sure that a hundred years from now, a private automobile will be as rare as horse-drawn buggies are today.

Not saying it's good. But I do see it headed that way.