Posted on 11/07/2017 8:24:03 AM PST by Hojczyk
It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.
The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.
Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.
The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.
On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation.
Then, as you approach your exit, your module will enter deceleration lanes, exit and go to your final destination. You will be billed for the transportation. You will enter your credit card number or your thumbprint or whatever it will be then. The module will take off and go to its collection point, ready for the next person to call.
Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future.
A minority of individuals may elect to have personalized modules sitting at home so they can leave their vacation stuff and the kids' soccer gear in them. They'll still want that convenience.
The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.
(Excerpt) Read more at autonews.com ...
“will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.”
Baloney.
And when i want to stop on the side of the road to look at an elk? And when kids wanna go across the grass to the edge of the lake to a make out spot? And by the way.... you better stop the upward totalitarian curve our government is on if you expect me to get into a module i don’t control.
You pop in the car and the doors lock and take me to the Homeland Security office? No thanks!
Ditto for long-haul transportation, though the rail lobby will likely squash that idea.
But for everyone? Darned unlikely.
Are all city people completely, totally, batshit crazy?
Because this kind of talk is batshit crazy.
Monkeys will fly the next space launch
Diversity is our greatest strength !
He also states the automobile as the prime mover of people the last 120 years. 120 years ago was 1897. In 1897 the prime mover of people was still horses (and trains). If he’d have said 110 years I could have let it slide, even though most rural areas still were horse and buggy/wagon in 1907.
yep. That'll be how it happens. No need for legislation, if costs 3 months' pay to insure yourself, then that will be the end of personal driving.
“He also states the automobile as the prime mover of people the last 120 years. 120 years ago was 1897. In 1897 the prime mover of people was still horses (and trains). If he’d have said 110 years I could have let it slide, even though most rural areas still were horse and buggy/wagon in 1907.”
You are correct.
Times change, but slowly and by degrees.
I should finish the thought .... Times change, but slowly and by degrees. Far more likely that 100 years into the future, the primary mode of transportation will be something that’s not even in existence, right now.
Ok, I am glad he is a good guy and perhaps kook was too strong a word. But his timing is way off. It is interesting to speculate about the future but this automated driving thing is being pushed with almost religious fervor, something we have seen before with global warming and other fads and scares.
One of the big problems autonomous cars are having is recognizing when a policeman on foot is signalling for a stop.
Which is kind of a problem, especially in the USA.
Where, the sanctions for running a police roadblock are not just economic...
I’ve seen (and talked to some of the people making )some preliminary plans on making cars that will fit onto a hyperloop between long destinations - say Boston to New York.
Drive your electric vehicle that has motors on each wheel with ultracapacitor energy storage that can be fully recharged in 15 minutes onto a hyperloop dock, ride that at 600 mph in 60 minutes to New York. Proof of concept is about 2 years out. this stuff is coming on FAST.
Times don’t change slowly anymore. Disruptive tech always moves fast and everything in tech these days is disruption. The smartphone is 10 years old, streaming video is 12, TV shows being released on the internet solely is 4 years old. When smart cars hit it’ll be a smash transition. If something comes in to replace cars it’ll also be a fast transition.
“will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.”
Baloney.
And when i want to stop on the side of the road to look at an elk? And when kids wanna go across the grass to the edge of the lake to a make out spot? And by the way.... you better stop the upward totalitarian curve our government is on if you expect me to get into a module i don’t control.
You pop in the car and the doors lock and take me to the Homeland Security office? No thanks!
Time for a red barchetta
Wait! Whatever happened to flying cars? Shouldn't we have at least gotten those first, BEFORE getting rid of our cars altogether? What a gyp!
I’d look to V2X emergency protocols to assist here. That said, it’s not the stopping part, it’s the hand waving that signals to continue along.
These fringe use-cases are the barrier to L5 systems but I believe we’ll see L4 ones in the near future.
The logistics of that are too massive. You’re talking about rebuilding the entire freeway system. It took us 50 years to finish phase one, and that didn’t have to be a power grid and vehicle controller.
Germany might redo the autobahn that way. Japan might be able to do it too. In America it’s a non-starter, by the time the project got 25% done the tech would have gone through 4 generations and the stuff we’d be laying down would be useless.
Smart cars are coming, and they’re coming fast. Smart roads are not.
God laughs...people still totally suck at predicting the future. They are wrong, almost universally. Yet more and more, the chattering head’s keep trying to say they know what’s going to happen. Pity poor Lutz, he’s now lumped in there with Al Gore.
> The logistics of that are too massive. You’re talking about rebuilding the entire freeway system.
Nahh, not the entire freeway system. the hyperloop would run from downtown to downtown (theoretically) and the local commuting would go over the same old roads.
So, just the long distance jumps on a separate line. You could still drive it on the interstate, it would just take longer.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.