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Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II
NHC/NOAA ^ | NHC/NOAA | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse

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To: caww
With as many people as live in Florida, then the government basically tries to evacuate the southern portion of the state, this is bound to happen. It happens every hurricane. And you cannot predict what a hurricane is going to do 2 days out much less 5. But they keep trying and people are still stupid enough to believe it. We just evacuated from Corpus to San Antonio for Harvey. We did leave early enough to beat the traffic because this ain't our first rodeo, but this was the first time we could afford to evacuate. Anyway, no sooner did we get to San Antonio what were​ they saying on the Weather Channel? Don't go to San Antonio it's going to flood! You've got to go to Dallas! WTH? Who can afford to evacuate that damn far? Ridiculous. Barely rained in San Antonio. By the way, Irma is still moving West. She ain't listening to those models, just like most hurricanes.
1,901 posted on 09/09/2017 12:01:22 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

If it continues the course of the last few frames and does not turn west, it will cross the Keys and into the Gulf, hammering the Keys and raking south Florida. Other strong hurricanes have tended to take a parabolic path like the one Irma has generally followed until something else big enough changes it. With the bigger storms, it takes a bigger system. What I really wonder is if Jose has been fully taken into account.


1,902 posted on 09/09/2017 12:02:14 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

After tracking WNW over the Cuban Keys, Irma just went due West and that took her inside the Cuban Keys and she will hit Cuban mainland right about now. If she keeps due West will go out over water again as Cuban coastline recedes a little in a Bay. Then back on land again.


1,903 posted on 09/09/2017 12:04:19 AM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

How far west could it go?


1,904 posted on 09/09/2017 12:10:17 AM PDT by Bodleian_Girl (Don't check the news, check Cernovich on Twitter)
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To: Bodleian_Girl

Who knows? We’ll find out when she makes landfall.

I read once, don’t remember where, that the tiny coasts of Alabama & Mississippi have been hit by hurricanes more than all the other gulf coast States combined. The reason they have was where they are in relation to the North Pole. Supposedly when there is nothing strong enough to steer it, the magnetic pull plays a role.
Again I don’t remember where I read that, it could be utter horse crap for all I know. Maybe someone on here can elaborate or call bs. Either way, I think our models are crap for this day and age.


1,905 posted on 09/09/2017 12:10:55 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: Lil Flower; blam

Thanks for the reply!

Blam, you folks prepared down there?


1,906 posted on 09/09/2017 12:13:35 AM PDT by Bodleian_Girl (Don't check the news, check Cernovich on Twitter)
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To: caww

Well of course I’m not criticizing you or the fact that you posted the graph, I’m critical of the graph. Don’t take it personal.


1,907 posted on 09/09/2017 12:14:10 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: Southack

How can the eye move southwest and hit Miami?


1,908 posted on 09/09/2017 12:15:58 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: Lil Flower

Oh. I thought they were talking about Florida. I was about to get really pissed.

Still pisses me off they do it in Cuba, but not up in here.


1,909 posted on 09/09/2017 12:16:24 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: Lil Flower

Everything about that story sounds like fake news. More eye crossings than Florida even ? Aligned to North Pole ? From that distance not much difference in relation to pole.


1,910 posted on 09/09/2017 12:16:35 AM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: Dave W

The eye might not make it to Miami if Irma turns SW before the eye reaches Florida.


1,911 posted on 09/09/2017 12:19:57 AM PDT by Southack (The one thing preppers need from the 1st World? http://tinyurl.com/ktfwljc .)
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To: Lil Flower

The NWS was only 50 miles off on where the eye of Harvey would make landfall. Not too bad.


1,912 posted on 09/09/2017 12:20:10 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: combat_boots

Captiva is where I’ve spent last three Thanksgivings with my brood

It’s puriy flat

Godspeed y’all


1,913 posted on 09/09/2017 12:22:27 AM PDT by wardaddy (Virtue signalers should be shot on sight...conservative ones racked and hanged then fed to dogs)
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To: jeffers

“Eye,at Ft. Myers 8pm Sat?

Or,Sun?”

I would say very late Sunday night even just into Monday. I would appear to be just about 48 hours from the last run of the Euro that it gets there if that track holds.

2AM Monday morning?


1,914 posted on 09/09/2017 12:22:46 AM PDT by Revel
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To: justa-hairyape

I read this years ago. I guess living in Mobile and Coastal Mississippi so long it sure seems like we get hit a lot for such a small coast line.

I’ll have to check and see if I can find anything. Again, I don’t remember where I read it, I just remember thinking it was interesting.


1,915 posted on 09/09/2017 12:23:43 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: caww

No kidding

No question the media hypes storms

Especially the rare one that hits the precious North


1,916 posted on 09/09/2017 12:27:21 AM PDT by wardaddy (Virtue signalers should be shot on sight...conservative ones racked and hanged then fed to dogs)
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To: Dave W

They said to start with it would make landfall as a tropical storm. Them maybe a Cat 1. Then at the last min a Cat 3. It was a Cat 4.

The forecast changed drastically in a very short time. It’s a little easier to predict landfall when it’s right off the coast. And they were saying Corpus right up until just before landfall.

Hurricanes are not as predictable as the Weather Channel and the NHC would have you believe.


1,917 posted on 09/09/2017 12:30:44 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: jeffers

I should mention that time would be for the eye to get there. Strong hurricane effects will be there well before that I would say.


1,918 posted on 09/09/2017 12:31:05 AM PDT by Revel
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To: Lil Flower
Hurricanes are not as predictable as the Weather Channel and the NHC would have you believe.

Which is why the decision was made in the early fifties to name them for women.

1,919 posted on 09/09/2017 12:37:23 AM PDT by abb ("News reporting is too important to be left to the journalists." Walter Abbott (1950 -))
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To: Lil Flower

Waveland to Ocean Springs has had more big hurricane hits than anywhere on the USA mainland past 50 years

Four big direct hits

Camille ....the strongest named storm yet....and I was there

Frederic...wind storm and water

Elena ....

Katrina...so big and slow....most swell damage in US history....surge of 33 foot over a coastline that is about 4-7 foot above sea level to Pass road

The coast will never be the same after Katrina

I hope this one spares yall


1,920 posted on 09/09/2017 12:43:11 AM PDT by wardaddy (Virtue signalers should be shot on sight...conservative ones racked and hanged then fed to dogs)
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