Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Right now I’d say keys and gulf. The sharper right turn seems a little more unlikely to me. I’m also thinking it will interact with Cuba. In the near term it looks far south enough to interact with Puerto Rico. Too bad for all of them, but better for us.
The Herbert Hoover dike is 80 years old and eroding.
http://www.news-press.com/story/news/2017/02/13/lake-o-dike-safer-but-work-remains/97859372/
Plus South Florida’s flood control, east and west coasts, is a series of canals that drain water from Okeechobee (Seminole for “Big Water” ) and the Everglades out into the Atlantic or Gulf. Water flowing out of Okeechobee competes with all the other water trying to run off and drain into those canals. Increase flooding.
I’m over here, tomkat. Locking and loading beachside, Spacecoast. Roommate and critters are stubborn, will ride it here. I work the hurricanes, so will be locked-in on mainland, if it comes to that.
Those new impact glass pool slider doors I ordered in July are not here yet (being fabricated in Ft Myers), so I have to do the ½” plywood one more time. I hope the factory makes it through the storm.
This has been on the news for days.
Oh well.
I hope not too many people are that unaware...
WOW!
That is jaw dropping.....
That’s massive.
A big levee was built around the lake in the 1930s because of the flood from the ‘28 hurricane.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover_Dike
You have the best images.
Thank you so much for posting them.
Thank you.
That’s a great comparison, dirtboy.
What N-Nurse and JanetJanet (among others) have taught me since the time of Katrina is that the various Model Tracks are useful but beyond 72 to a max of 120 they are not all that certain.
Additionally, as I mentioned earlier the interface of Cuba with the H’cane is possibly going to alter its strength and play a part in how it turns. But the turn itself and following bearing north, northeast or northwest are the LEAST reliable portion of the computer Models until just the last three to six hours as that storm is turning.
Because of that. I think the models are useless to follow for the next 72 hours for anyone down there in any part of Florida. I think it is mandatory to photograph and email your important documents, document your personal property, collect what you are going to move to higher ground and also take with you for evac and do all that stuff now.
We are going to know very little more the next 48 hours as to its path and eventual landfall. If you haven’t gone by then you better be in a shelter.
Thankfully her friend in Michigan stays on top of things! Her husband wants to move back to Michigan; this just might speed up the decision making process a tad.
That “turn” has nothing to with Cuber.
It is a Front absorbing the storm. The speed of that Front will give you that information.
What really gets everybody nervous is when there’s a big slowdown for a turn... for the timing and depth of the turn tends to shift forecasts by hundreds of miles... and we’ve got a doozy of a turn coming at some point this weekend.
Let’s see. Supposed to be staying at Roland Martin’s marina in Clewiston 14th-18th. What do ya think?
It is that I had to wait in line for gas stores are running out of usual. I am in Palm Coast Florida about two football fields from the beach.
Offthread, was discussing that powerful hurricanes have been known to “bounce” along the coast of Cuba, not unlike a pinball. Round and round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows...
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