What N-Nurse and JanetJanet (among others) have taught me since the time of Katrina is that the various Model Tracks are useful but beyond 72 to a max of 120 they are not all that certain.
Additionally, as I mentioned earlier the interface of Cuba with the H’cane is possibly going to alter its strength and play a part in how it turns. But the turn itself and following bearing north, northeast or northwest are the LEAST reliable portion of the computer Models until just the last three to six hours as that storm is turning.
Because of that. I think the models are useless to follow for the next 72 hours for anyone down there in any part of Florida. I think it is mandatory to photograph and email your important documents, document your personal property, collect what you are going to move to higher ground and also take with you for evac and do all that stuff now.
We are going to know very little more the next 48 hours as to its path and eventual landfall. If you haven’t gone by then you better be in a shelter.
That “turn” has nothing to with Cuber.
It is a Front absorbing the storm. The speed of that Front will give you that information.
What really gets everybody nervous is when there’s a big slowdown for a turn... for the timing and depth of the turn tends to shift forecasts by hundreds of miles... and we’ve got a doozy of a turn coming at some point this weekend.
Offthread, was discussing that powerful hurricanes have been known to “bounce” along the coast of Cuba, not unlike a pinball. Round and round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows...
We leave Thurs. at 4:00 am,gotta beat the traffic.
And do NOT tie your dogs to a tree like those @(*^&%)$ did in Harvey. Take all the pets out with you.
Bump THIS!!!!
I swear, every single run of these models there are guys on the weather sites that go nuts. And nearly all of them know better:) They can’t help it. The thing is with this girl, she has lots of suitors and she’s flirting with them all. Even she doesn’t know which one she’ll choose yet. Picky, apparently.