Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Second:
Joe Bastardi nailed the westward path a week ago.
Go to “Home” tab.
Scroll down to Joe Bastardis pic.
Hit the arrow on Daily Weather Update.
https://www.weatherbell.com/#featured
My niece is by herself in Ft Lauderdale just on the other side of the Intercostal, between A1A and US1.
Her father will be flying back from Europe on Monday via Detroit. All her neighbors are helping out. Her Mom will be flying back September 22.
Tomorrow she will decide if she wants me to fly down to help out. Luckily she is prepared i.e. water, food, dog supplies/medication, hand cranked generator for iPhone, emergency lights, bleach, generator, etc. Any other advice???
Thanks for the ping!
Tutorial is at the top of the thread. Click the little map/box at the very end of the graphics and links.
Thank you for the thread.
FYI
the GFS model runs at 12z( 8am eastern) 18z, 00z, and 6z,,4 times a day..the data comes in about 4 hours after the run time(18z coming in now)
The Euro runs at 12z and 00z. that data starts to come in about 5 hours after each run time
other “minor” models tun at 12z and 00z also
Just tryin' to reason with hurricane season.
"Ceterum censeo Islam esse delendam."
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
If there are strongly worded evacuation orders for FLL area, she should fly up to visit you, rather than you flying down here.
Another boater here on Florida west coast...mines on a lift too, do you tie it directly to the lift and let it swing in the wind or do you secure yours to the piling too?
Glad you checked in—ltns.
Thank you. I am in Palm Coast, Florida. Stayed through Mathew, in a day or so will figure out what to do about this one
Come on, noob, you know NautiNurse ALWAYS has the definitive hurricane thread. :)
Not tied to lift—only loosely cross-tied to pilings, allowing for water to rise. Lots of slack in the lines.
Thanks!
Hoping it heads east. Now!
Yesterday, hurricane Irma was tracking 11 mph, and winds were 115mph.
The storm has intensified in Category and sped up to 13 mph Westward, and winds higher to 130 mph.
Exact track remains unknown at this time as the European (Atlantic coast) and the US (Gulf Coast) computer models disagree.
Possible initial land contact may be in the Florida Keys.
Some water, food, and gas shortages already being reported in Florida.
H/T NautiNurse and ToleranceSucksRocks
So what could possibly be confusing about this mess? It looks like the work of a toddler with a box a crayons. It tells me nothing except that the experts and their computers don't know any more about what's happening than I do. I could randomly guess the track and be as accurate as all of these projected paths.
Throwing darts on a map probably works just as good. It re-enforces my belief that global warming, climate change, whatever, is crapola too.
No.
So....I know you’ve had hurricane prep plans for years. What’s the scoop?
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