Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Hurricane Donna seems to be the best analog I can find, and that is NOT a good thing. Similar strength, track, time of year and conditions, including a front.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna
Ping me, please! My wife and I have paid for a cruise in that neck of the woods at the end of the month. I know, nothing compared to the folks that live there, but it is a not insignificant chunk o change!
Nope not good at all this bitch will go for the warm water...
I’m staying. I’m inland, albeit on an ocean access canal. Been through 6. This may be #7. We’ll see. Hurricanes are an odd natural disaster. You know they’re coming for awhile before they hit you. Not like tornadoes or earthquakes. You can prepare for them. Or leave.
The runup to the storm is gradual, wind picks up, palm tree branches go horizontal, feeder bands come in and it rains off and on. The main body of the storm is unrelenting wind and rain. Somebody once told me its the sound of sitting right next to a train barreling down the tracks. And they’re right. That’s what it sounds like for several hours.
When the storm passes, it’s calm and eerily peaceful. No birds. Night can be rough. No street lights, no electric. Occasional police car or national guard HMMWV. But there’s always an element that thinks its time for some early Christmas shopping. There’s usually a dawn to dusk curfew for the first few days afterwards.
People come out of their houses. Meet the neighbors you never talk to. Call your insurance company. Block party barbecues. Kids are excited because theres no school, wonder if they got really lucky and their school got blown away. Clean up and go on with life.
I had a neighbor, originally from St Louis, probably 85 when this happened- We get into the eye of a storm, its calm, and somebody’s knocking on my door. Its Marie, all 5’ tall of her, holding a 12 pack of Miller High Life. “Honey, the electrics out and these are going to get warm. You better help me drink them before they go bad”. She came in, and we did just that. She was a pistol— went to Vegas for her 94th birthday.
So I’ll stay. Well see what nature brings, if anything.
Cruise ships usually are able to avoid hurricanes by being aware of the path and steering in another direction. Good chance they go to different ports than advertised, though.
Any more, we only cruise between Dec. 1 and June 1.
Good news for Puerto Rico, tho. Crappy news for the Bahamas, many islands are basically screwed if this track holds.
The links are in post 196. I embedded links — all you have to do is click on the pictures, and you will go to the websites, with the animated versions running.
When do you suppose flights in/out of FLL will stop?
The reason I ask is my friends from South Africa are currently in Jamaica, and scheduled to fly into FLL Friday and then out of FLL on Saturday. I'm wondering if they'll make it in... and if so, then if they'll get out Saturday, or have to hang with me for the duration.
Recon just measured 145 MPH surface winds
I had a feeling it was going north of Cuba, not that they won’t get some weather.
It doesn’t seem there’s much in her way. Except warm water.
I was scheduled out of FLL on 9/6 returning on 9/7.
Airline advisory had me change to coming back on 9/6, in out same day.
9/6 is last safe day apparently.
I'm still hoping it takes a turn and heads for Czechoslovakia.
We are so screwed.
Going to put my boat on the trailer in 3 days or earlier. I hope the Tampa Boat Show (scheduled for this weekend) will go on as scheduled.
I just got woken up (early to bed, early to rise) by the very loud cell phone emergency alert, followed by frantic calls from family. They’re so dramatic. “That’s a 36 hour alert before the first winds”, I tell them.
A little bit of good news for us that it is tracking a little bit north of the previous advisory. But what a monster storm! It reminds me of Hurricane Luis in 1995.
Looks like game over for Miami if that track holds. Swellinfo is forecasting 35 foot surf there by Sunday. Insanity.
That’s only Wednesday... interesting... that sounds a bit early, but perhaps they’re planning to get the planes out of the area in plenty of time.
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