Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Looks like that red line track is a direct hit on St. Augustine/Jacksonville. Let’s hope it moves east!
22 minutes ago this guy on the coast of Dominca Island writes....
North coast Dominica island, southerm Leeward Islands,15.5N. 8.30pm Monday .
.... Although we are only under Tropical Storm Warning and several hundred miles from the centre of Irma, I am looking out now at the first of the outer bands of the storm standing as a high wall of cloud glistening in the moonlight (full moon due on 6 Sept) Curling towards us across the channel over the French islands of Guadeloupe and Mariegalante. .
......... No wind or rain yet but the sea is beginning to surge against the cliffs below and is sweeping up over usual high water mark among the trees along the beach..
... Just came in from Douglas-Charles airport (formerly Melville Hall) with a passenger standing on the back of my pick-up truck who shouted “Go Through. Go for it!” as I pressed the excelerator and we got showered by waves hitting sea defence wall at the end of the runway.... This is just the gentle beginning way out on the periphery.
Those are three different groups giving their projection of how this will go....same with the cone shape we always see.....it can track anywhere inside that cone....
There’s a VERY strong cold front dropping down across the US at the moment.
Lots of severe weather watch boxes.
Should be interesting to see where it is and how it affects the storm track.
But your temps will be rising again when the hurricane happens.
"Water in Bahamas & between Florida & Cuba is very warm. Some places close to 31°C sufficient for Cat 5+. Hurricane #Irma over it by weekend"
We are supposed to get a low temp 63 degreees Friday night here in Panama City. I hope this stinking storm just bounces off and heads off to sea.
You can head to Lakeland! We’ll put you and yours up for a few days!
Post 266 explains what the colored lines mean...
storm is really getting its act together now and its really expanding wind field
Annular Hurricane- a phrase that you all might want to look up
You would be correct, 82-86 degree on the coast. Like bath water.
I saw that.....hopefully the waters might cool down along the way and affect the outcome of this ......Doesn’t look good at this point...
When will Zone B be ordered to evacuate?
The run on water has begun here in Charleston SC. Local Walmart ran out today.
Ryan Maue on twitter 12 mins ago: “Hurricane #Irma continues to intensify. Satellite estimates from GOES-16 are T 6.6 or 125-knots. Expecting steady growth to Cat 5.”
Zone B is ordered to evacuate during a Category 3 or higher.
Yep...others saying it’s already cat 5....I suspect it will tilt back and forth for awhile yet...
Zone B? Pretty early in the process since it includes some barrier islands and near-coastal low-lying areas.
A hurricane "wound tight" with no discrete rain bands, looks like a truck tire or a doughnut.
Thanks, learned a new meteorological term today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone
Right now Irma looks like (2003) Isabel (picture at the link).
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