Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I’m thinking it may skirt Cuba’s north shore (not good for FL). The eye is impressive. New 00z model is showing pretty unusual convergence for 5 days out. South Fl then up the middle of state and out around jax then into GA.
its the other dyke....the one that holds back the water.....
Winter Park AND New Smyrna Beach here...I’m praying for cold water so this thing completely fizzles and NONE of us are affected.
Latest Euro model seems to bring Irma into Florida roughly at Homestead on Sunday morning at something south of 935 mbars...not as bullish as that 891 from the GFS, but probably still at least a '4'.
So at least Florida will have plenty of warning this week.
thanks I’m tending to want to leave...
I'm no hurricane expert, but watching it on satellite, this storm got organized real fast.
Here is a link for Broward County Emergency Services Twitter.
Yeah they want everyone out,first they do lower keys than middle keys than upper takes three days to do.
If it could specifically take out their government, I’d go for it.
Otherwise, I would not wish that on the everyday person who has to live under that regime.
Oh man, how awful for your family. It was a brutal little hurricane. Older people often take the brunt of these storms.
It was a rugged summer. Seems all we did was clean up and re-prep.
ignore with those models intensity wise......those are the two big ones for the track
the new GFS upgrade has been overdoing storms this year...but in those cases it wasn’t in conditions as favorable as this ...ie SST’s too low to support what is it was forecasting at the time
The governor has already declared a state of emergency.
Why wait for evacuation orders?
It sure did. Lots of fuel. Water temps in 80-90 degree range just like gas on a flame.
Spent most of the day up on the roof cleaning the debris off and cleaning out all of the gutters and making sure the downspouts all run free.
Ordered a new set of filters for the ProPur, just in case...
Also scheduled a neighbor with a tree service to stop by this week to clear out some of the hangers and lower canopy, just to play it safe...
Prayers up for all that may be in the path of this storm!
The takeaway I have from this is that the best results seem to be gleaned at 72 hours away from the forecast.
So for a Sunday morning landfall, watch what the models say on Thursday morning.
What is so good is that she gets better all the time and adds to the thread every time she does a new one. Pretty soon the weather people will be coming here for info if they don’t already.
Anyone got the 8:00 update? I’m tied up here in panhandle.
It did.
It was a Cat 2 at a point where most hurricanes are just being born.
Usually that far out they are just watching a disturbance trying to figure out if it can develop into something stronger.
To have it be a 2 at that point already and considering the incredibly warm water its entering, I don't see that there was anything else that would happen but a 4-5 by landfall.
Start packing, FRiend. Might be a rough few days coming.
whoa 27.85 is getting down there.
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