Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Waze is great just be aware it sucks life out of phone battery fast!!
Don’t know if this has been posted above already.
Damage hurricane Irma St Maarten seen from naval helicopter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=lkSNWkgkH4Q
Thanks for the info. I was listening to the Zellow app last night and it was interesting hearing advice about water, gas availability, wind probabilities in various areas, etc..
Headed to Lowes to see if there’s any plywood left. Outside stuff is in, now try to get boarded up.
Thanks!
Good luck! I know there were supposed to be shipments for lumber and grocery stores across FL last night. Also—multiple large tanker ships came into port last night with gasoline.
Good to know. We went out to dinner in Oldsmar yesterday and the 5 or 6 gas stations we passed on Tampa Road were all out of gas. This was around 10 pm last night.
Bastardi’s daily update has it degrading to a cat 4 for the next couple of days then increasing back to a 5 east of the Keys due to and area of instability located there.
https://www.weatherbell.com/#premium
Your post is so kind.....Thank you!
We are most concerned for our daughter and her family in Orlando .....the schools aren’t closing there!
They have a bug out bag.....but the interstate is already congested and I’m afraid they will decide too late to leave.
I’ve evacuated to Orlando twice through the years and it never felt ‘far enough’
We want them here in NC......or anywhere out of Florida
We boarded our home in Florida but my husband is worried about the front door.....it is not boarded, although it sits within a screened porch.
We also have extended family on Cocoa Beach who refuse to leave!
Praying!
The forward motion of the Hurricane affects its energy draw from any given volume of water. Faster motion forward means less energy draw from water. So a fast moving Hurricane will be less affected by heat volume of water. Slower moving storm is more affected. The ability of water to evaporate depends on water temp, wind speed and air pressure. Lower air pressure makes it easier to evaporate. My guess is the cold air from the cold front will also lessen water evaporation. The water in the wake of a hurricane is cooled by evaporation and wind.
Per Rick Scott on Ch. 13: FL511.com gives real time traffic info.
If you have to evacuate and have no gas call 1-800-955-5504.
Florida Volunteer & Donation Hotline: 1-800-FL-HELP-1 (1-800-354-3571) ...
I STAND CORRECTED.
I made the mistake of accepting a facebook forwarded to me by a friend. That’s why I hate facebook!
Will the mountains of Hispaniola have much effect on Irma? Pico Duarte in the center of the island has an elevation of just over 10,000 feet.
I found this on another forum and I thought you all would like the good info..on the hurricane model suites
XTRP: This is not a model. It is simply a straight-line extrapolation of the storm’s current direction at 2pm Tuesday.
TVCN, TVCX: These are useful, as they are consensus forecasts of global model tracks.
NHC: This is the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
TABD, TABM, TABS: These are simple statistical models, which are essentially useless for track forecasting.
NVGM: Useful, but the model is from about 8am ET, or 12 hours before Silver posted the graphic. Wildly out of date.
HMON: This is NOAA’s new hurricane model, but it was badly wrong during Hurricane Harvey. Also 12 hours old. Essentially useless.
HWRF: This is NOAA’s primary hurricane model, and while it’s OK, it is nearly 12 hours old. Not useful.
COTC: A version of the US Navy’s global model, which is kind of meh for hurricanes and is 12 hours old.
AVNO, AEMN: Two variants of NOAA’s premiere global model, the GFS. Both are worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.
CMC, CEMN: Two variants of the Canadian global model, which is worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.
UKM: The UK Met Office’s global model, which is definitely worth looking at. But the forecasts are 12 hours old.
CLP5: Not a model at all. Just a forecast based on where storms in this location historically go.
Thank you! That is great information.
Hi NautiNurse,All
Just checking in.Niece leaving Fort Lauderdale today.Storm Chaser leaving for Florida tonight.They never made it to Texas.Enough crews were down there.Getting nervous.((((Hugs))))
does anyone have a (free) link to the projections that are in plain English? nooaa is confusing and news outlets are out of date
Thank you SO MUCH!
Joe Bastardi has been the best.
Scroll down to the free Daily Update short popup.
There’s also his Twitter feed:
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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