Hurricane Irma Live Thread

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[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the wide view satellite images. The image/link at the top of the thread is focused on Hurricane Irma.

[Rebelbase]

Coming to your neighborhood ping.

[HotHunt]

No more than Al Gore does. Or Bill Nye. Or Obama. Or any of the other liberals who try to tells us what the weather's going to do in the future.

It's all a crap shoot.

[foundedonpurpose]

For updates: Current HMON data (will be relevant when it get here, just great info in the mean time) http://www.weathernerds.org/models/hmon01.html

Euro & Our Ensemble maps: http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11

Weather geeks chat board, will have occasional breaking info & interesting perspective from forecasters: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50217-major-hurricane-irma/?page=97

Enjoy!

[lodi90]

Current GFS has Irma at 132 hours as an 891 mb storm going into the very tip of South Florida and then working NNE. Worst-case scenario, let’s hope the actual course shifts.

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This is a Sunday landfall in FL?

The models have shifted quite a bit since this morning. Let’s hope they keep moving east.

[MagUSNRET]

emphasis on the word “CRAP”!!!

[dirtboy]

It’s a model over 5 days out. When it gets to under 3 days out, we will get a much better sense. This is not a Harvey situation where there were very weak steering currents and two cows farting in unison was enough to make a model shift the course 135 degrees. There will be very pronounced steering currents with this storm, it’s just a matter of when and where they come together to pull it northwards.

[Islander7]

Another a good source:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

[NautiNurse]

My extensive knowledge of geography tells me that Florida is buried somewhere in here:

[dirtboy]

[Ozymandias Ghost]

“On another forum they mention the Lake Okeechobee dikes as a serious worry...”

“Anyone what to explain the details on that?”
___________________

This should help clarify:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

[Fresh Wind]

Here’s another forum that I’ve been lurking in, this thread is a seemingly endless discussion of the models as they evolve...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059

[Chgogal]

Doesn't 891 put Irma in Cat 5 territory?

[foundedonpurpose]

Thats a fact. It keeps dropping. I expect a wobble south, thats normal. It might skirt Florida’s tip and hit the Gulf. Will know in a couple days.

[dirtboy]

Solidly into Cat 5 territory.

[SE Mom]

You want red, clam or alfredo with that?

[SoFloFreeper]

amen.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

IT also could look like Frances in 2004 so I hope you are right about it being more like Matthew we are in Jax an came thru that one quite well

[Chgogal]

Dang It!

Time to plan to get out of Dodge. The thing is, where the heck do you go? Florida is long and thin and a hurricane can cover a lot of territory.

[SoFloFreeper]

This is merely a reflection of what various models say. The area highlighted by you seems to be what is a legal protection for anyone who thinks the South Florida Water Management District is the final authority on what will happen. They aren’t. They’re merely providing the viewer with what various hurricane models are predicting.