Posted on 12/01/2016 3:59:11 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
The first polling is out for the soon to be open 6th district seat held by future Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. In a Landmark Rosetta Stone poll of 500 voters. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel leads at 21.7%, followed by State Rep. and Tom Price’s wife Betty Price at 10%. State Senator Judson Hill, who officially announced his bid, has 8.4%, and State Senator Brandon Beach at 4%. 55.7% are undecided.
There are several caveats to consider when considering the results. First of all, not all potential candidates are listed. Others, including Sen. John Albers and House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones were not included, for example. In addition, it is widely believed by insiders that should Handel run, Betty Price would not, and vice versa. IN addition, there were no Democratic names in the poll.
While candidates can explore their options now, Tom Price is unlikely to resign his seat until after he is confirmed by the Senate, which could be in late January. Between qualifying and the election, which is likely to include a runoff, the race may not be settled until June.
(Excerpt) Read more at georgiapol.com ...
I think that was the poll I saw, too. That’s absolutely awful for Brown to be at 38% as the incumbent, as the undecideds likely break for the challenger. 2018 should be Mandel’s year.
The Dems would’ve had to been delusional to think they could win the Senate runoff in LA. At least that backstabbing weasel Angelle was denied a House seat.
Of course they would have to be delusional to think that they could win the LA Senate runoff, but that they were. You should have seen the crap they wrote on Daily Kos regarding the race and how the DNC and DSCC were cowards for not supporting the RAT, and how all of these Kossites sent money to the RAT with no chance of winning. (I only visit Daily Kos to see if they’ve updated the post with the presidential vote by CD, and I go directly to that link, but sometimes I can’t resist clicking on other posts in the sidebar out of pure schadenfreude.)
They’re gonna go extra bat$hit crazy if Heitkamp accepts Ag Sec. Kevin Cramer can start measuring for the drapes in his new Senate office.
OK, Daily Kos just added CD presidential data for AZ and OR.
Sorry for the formatting; percentages are listed in the following order:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
Arizona:
AZ-01 O’Halleran, Tom (D) 46.6 47.7 47.9 50.4
AZ-02 McSally, Martha (R) 49.6 44.7 48.4 49.9
AZ-03 Grijalva, Raul (D) 62.4 32.5 61.4 36.9
AZ-04 Gosar, Paul (R) 27.5 67.7 31.0 67.2
AZ-05 Biggs, Andy (R) 36.5 57.6 34.6 63.8
AZ-06 Schweikert, David (R) 42.4 52.4 38.8 59.5
AZ-07 Gallego, Ruben (D) 71.8 22.6 71.7 26.5
AZ-08 Franks, Trent (R) 37.0 58.1 36.9 61.7
AZ-09 Sinema, Kyrsten (D) 54.7 38.4 51.1 46.6
Trump dud worse than Romney in each of the three competitive seats, none of which have a high percentage of Hispanic voters but all of which have significant numbers of affluent white Anglos. Trump got blown out in Sinema’s Maricopa County CD, lost by 5% in the eastern Tucson CD (formerly held by Gabby Giffords) that Romney had won by 1.5% (although, impressively, Martha McSally was reelected in a near landslide), and barely carried the NE AZ (Republican-voting outside of the Navajo Reservation and Flagstaff) by 1% and with under 48% of the vote (Romney had exceeded 50% and carried it by 2.5%), which wasn’t enough for the GOP’s flawed House nominee to win the open-seat election.
My takeaways from all this are the following:
McSally has a good hold on the AZ-02 for us, and that it would be counterproductive to push for a primary challenge because of her occasional disappointing votes.
We can win the AZ-01 with a good candidate who is popular among traditional GOP groups in the district who also can appeal to conservative Democrats and independents. Nominating a gay county sheriff because his rock-ribbed conservative Republican primary opponents were “too establishment” (because they voted for anti-illegal-alien laws in the state legislature instead of merely whining about illegal aliens in speeches).
As for AZ-09, we need to wait for post-2020 redistricting to have a shot at winning it.
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
Oregon:
OR-01 Bonamici, Suzanne (D) 57.3 34.5 57.3 40.0
OR-02 Walden, Greg (R) 36.4 56.5 40.5 56.8
OR-03 Blumenauer, Earl (D) 70.7 22.5 72.0 24.7
OR-04 DeFazio, Peter (D) 46.1 46.0 51.7 45.0
OR-05 Schrader, Kurt (D) 48.3 44.1 50.5 47.1
No surprises there, as Trump outperformed Romney in rural areas and underperformed in urban and affluent suburban areas.
The OR-05 House seat is still winnable with a popular suburban Republican, as McSally’s performance in AZ-02 (and performances by Roksam in IL-06, Comstock in VA-10 and Paulsen in MN-03, respectively) show.
Trump came within 0.1% if carrying the largely rural OR-04, albeit with only 46% of the vote, but this was real improvement over Romney, who had gotten 45% and had lost the district by 6.7%; IIRC, Bush narrowly carried the OR-05 with 49% of the vote in 2004. Trump would have cleaned up in this district had it not been for the hippies in Eugene and Corvallis (home to the University of Oregon and Oregon State University, respectively). Given RAT Congressman Peter DeFazio’s local popularity, he will be hard to dislodge at least until 2020 redistricting.
That’s the plan. : )
Oregon ticks me off, we should and could so easily have a second seat there. And I’m sure you could draw a 3-2 map.
The the 4th makes me sad, some good GOP geography attacked to some nasty rats nest.
“none of which have a high percentage of Hispanic voters but all of which have significant numbers of affluent white Anglos. “
Interesting.
AZ-1 was one of the big disappointments (in the congressional race I mean), not even close.
Look, I don’t wanna exclude homosexuals from the party but these gay candidates are 0-for.
In the cases of this Sheriff and Sicko De Maio down in San Diego alleged creepy behavior was a factor in their defeats. De Maio did something in a bathroom (allegedly) and Sheriff Babeu ( too many vowels in that name) was involved sexually with an illegal immigrant and supposedly threatened to have him deported. There was also something about a school he once ran where boys were abused (only psychically, I think).
I forgot all about that stuff in Alaska. That dirty bastard (not that I wouldn’t have done the same as a Republican Governor). And then Frank appoints his freaking daughter, and she’s still there. Ugh......
Your 5 day period sounds good to me. I like the idea of having a special election sooner than later (2 friggin years to get rid of the widow Carnahan), 3 months or however long it should take, but not having an appointee in the interim is stupid. If you want you could make the appointee ineligible for the special election (or could you? Would that violate the constitution?).
And now Daily Kos added CD presidential data for WA and WI.
Washington:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
WA-01 DelBene, Suzan (D) 54.1 37.8 54.1 43.3
WA-02 Larsen, Rick (D) 56.9 34.8 59.2 38.0
WA-03 Herrera Beutler, Jaime (R) 42.5 49.9 47.9 49.6
WA-04 Newhouse, Dan (R) 35.1 57.9 37.9 59.7
WA-05 McMorris Rodgers, Cathy (R) 39.1 52.2 43.7 53.5
WA-06 Kilmer, Derek (D) 51.8 39.5 56.1 41.2
WA-07 Jayapal, Pramila (D) 82.1 12.2 79.2 18.1
WA-08 Reichert, David (R) 47.7 44.7 49.7 48.1
WA-09 Smith, Adam (D) 70.5 23.3 68.3 29.6
WA-10 Heck, Denny (D) 51.3 39.9 56.3 41.1
Once again, Trump outperformed Romney in rural areas and blue-collar suburbs and underperformed him in affluent suburbs. This underperformance was most noticeable in Reichert’s WA-08 in the traditionally Republican suburbs to the east of Seattle.
Wisconsin:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
WI-01 Ryan, Paul (R) 42.3 52.6 47.4 51.6
WI-02 Pocan, Mark (D) 65.8 29.0 68.3 30.5
WI-03 Kind, Ron (D) 44.8 49.3 54.8 43.8
WI-04 Moore, Gwen (D) 74.0 21.8 75.3 23.8
WI-05 Sensenbrenner, Jim (R) 37.3 57.4 37.7 61.3
WI-06 Grothman, Glenn (R) 38.8 55.7 45.8 53.1
WI-07 Duffy, Sean (R) 37.3 57.8 47.8 50.9
WI-08 Gallagher, Mike (R) 38.6 56.2 47.6 51.3
Trump outperformed Romney by 5.5% in the rural and blue-collar WI-03 (which has been represented by Democrat Ron Kind since the late 1990s and was made more Democrat by the GOP in 2012 redistricting so as to make the WI-07 more Republican) and actually carried the CD by 49.3% to 44.8%. This district was in no one’s radar screen for 2016, but we should contest it strongly in 2018. After the 2020 Census, the GOP legislature should add Lacrosse to the über-Democrat Madison-based CD and make the WI-03 a more Republican district so that WI elected 6 Republicans and just 2 Democrats to the House.
Unsurprisingly, Trump underperformed Romney in Sensenbrener’s WI-05, traditionally one of the most Republican districts in the Midwest but one chock full of affluent suburbanites. However, Trump’s 4% underperformance was a drop in the bucket in that district, which had given Romney 61.3% in 2012.
Big gains in WI-3, 7, and 8.
Kind didn’t even have an opponent, ugh!! That makes me almost as mad as MN-8 and MN-1 (and throw in MN-7) being narrow ‘loses’.
Unless the seat was open, Kind probably would’ve held on. After all, the GOP did only knock off a single incumbent, and that a weakling in Nebraska who shouldn’t have won in the first place. Of course, that doesn’t count who knows how many seats were stolen due to Dem voter fraud (MN, NV, et al).
Kos has the Cali numbers up. As you would expect, GOP decreases in most districts
I’ll post the GOP and close or “close” rat seats.
The numbers are Shillery/Trump/Obama/Romney
CA-01 LaMalfa, Doug (R) 36.5 56.2 40.3 56.6
Increase in GOP margin due to Clinton decrease
CA-03 Garamendi, John (D) 53.0 40.4 54.3 43.1
Rat margin increase by 3
CA-04 McClintock, Tom (R) 39.3 54.0 39.5 57.9
R Decrease, Trump 4 points under Romney but no gain for Clinton
CA-07 Bera, Ami (D) 52.3 40.9 50.8 46.8
Significant decrease Trump -6, rat margin goes from 4 to over 11, Bera won reelection by only 2.4 points against a strong challenger
CA-08 Cook, Paul (R) 39.6 54.7 41.7 55.6
Slight increase in GOP margin
CA-09 McNerney, Jerry (D) 56.6 38.0 57.8 40.1
Slight decrease, nothing dramatic
CA-10 Denham, Jeff (R) 48.5 45.5 50.6 47.0
Very slight decrease in GOP margin, Denham won with 51.7%. Stanislaus county actualy swung a tiny bit to Trump, Clinton carried it by only 1.8
CA-16 Jim Costa (D) 58.0 36.4 58.6 39.4
GOP down
CA-21 Valadao, David (R) 55.2 39.7 54.6 43.5
Rat margin goes from 11 to 15.5, Valado won easily in spite of that, with 56.7%, losing only the Kern County portion, as usual, must be the worst part of Kern.
CA-22 Nunes, Devin (R) 42.6 52.1 41.6 56.6
CA-23 McCarthy, Kevin (R) 36.1 58.1 36.1 61.5
GOP decrease in both
CA-24 Carbajal, Salud (D) 56.7 36.5 54.1 43.1
Rat margin goes from 11 to 20, but the seat was open and the rat got only 53.4%
CA-25 Knight, Steve (R) 50.3 43.6 47.8 49.7
Dramatic swing, +2 Romney to almost +7 clinton. Knight won by 6 points
CA-26 Brownley, Julia (D) 57.9 36.0 54.0 43.7
Rat margin swells to 22%.
CA-31 Aguilar, Pete (D) 57.7 36.6 57.2 40.6
Trump down 4, Clinton up 0.5, the rat won with 56.1% in a rematch with Paul Chabot
CA-36 Ruiz, Raul (D) 52.2 43.4 50.7 47.5
Rat margin goes from 3 to 9, Ruiz though for the second election in a row (wasn’t that close in 2014), this time well ahead, he wins a landslide with over 61% over GOP State Senator Jeff Stone, did Stone do something?
CA-39 Royce, Ed (R) 51.5 42.9 47.1 50.8
Narrow Romney to big Clinton. But Royce won easily with 57% over I think a weak challenger. LA and the OC, Yorba Linda
CA-42 Calvert, Ken (R) 41.4 53.4 41.4 56.5
Trump - 3, Clinton stand pat
CA-45 Walters, Mimi (R) 49.8 44.4 43.0 54.8
Romney won by almost 12, Clinton by 5.4. OC. :(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK24DnWQaIk
Mimi won with 59%
CA-48 Rohrabacher, Dana (R) 47.9 46.2 43.0 54.7
CA-49 Issa, Darrell (R) 50.7 43.2 45.7 52.4
CA-50 Hunter, Duncan (R) 39.6 54.6 37.6 60.4
2 of these 3 Romney districts go to Clinton, the 48th by 1.7%, the 49th b 7.5. R-bocker won with 58.5%, Issa won by the skin of his teeth
CA-52 Peters, Scott (D) 58.1 35.6 52.1 45.7
YUCK!!!!!!! Only good news is our congressional candidate did much better, got 43.6%.
NJ
NJ-01 Norcross, Donald (D) 60.6 36.1 65.1 33.8
NJ-02 LoBiondo, Frank (R) 46.0 50.6 53.5 45.4
NJ-03 MacArthur, Tom (R) 45.2 51.4 51.8 47.2
NJ-04 Smith, Chris (R) 41.0 55.8 44.7 54.2
NJ-05 Gottheimer, Josh (D) 47.7 48.8 47.9 51.0
NJ-06 Pallone, Frank (D) 56.2 40.6 61.4 37.4
NJ-07 Lance, Leonard (R) 48.6 47.5 46.3 52.5
NJ-08 Sires, Albio (D) 75.7 21.5 78.3 20.7
NJ-09 Pascrell, Bill (D) 64.3 33.1 68.3 30.8
NJ-10 Payne, Donald (D) 85.2 12.8 87.9 11.5
NJ-11 Frelinghuysen, Rodney (R) 47.9 48.8 46.6 52.4
NJ-12 Watson Coleman, Bonnie (D) 65.0 31.8 66.5 32.4
Trump carries NJ-2, and 3 lost by Romney. GOP increase in the 4th, clearly the most GOP seat now. It could do better than Chris Smith but could also do worse, he’s at least strongly pro-life unlike most NJ RINOs.
Trump narrowly wins the 5th, but Scott Garrett sadly ran behind and “lost”.
Trump narrowly wins the 11th by less than a point.
NM
NM-01 Lujan Grisham, Michelle (D) 51.6 35.1 55.3 39.6
NM-02 Pearce, Steve (R) 39.9 50.1 44.9 51.7
NM-03 Lujan, Ben (D) 51.8 36.7 57.5 38.7
Once again Johnson messes up the numbers here. The 1st and 3rd are about the same again but Trump did better in the 3rd. That isn’t good for our prospects in the 1st.
NV
NV-01 Titus, Dina (D) 61.6 32.6 65.6 32.4
NV-02 Amodei, Mark (R) 39.7 52.0 44.8 52.9
NV-03 Rosen, Jacky (D) 46.5 47.5 49.5 48.7
NV-04 Kihuen, Ruben (D) 49.5 44.6 54.4 43.7
Trump wins the 3rd by a point while Tarkanian “lost”
MA
MA Sucks
RI
RI-01 Cicilline, David (D) 60.5 34.9 66.2 32.2
RI-02 Langevin, Jim (D) 51.1 44.0 59.8 38.3
Nice gain in the 2nd
I believe there was so much voter chicanery in California on the order of a few million (either cast by illegals, multiple votes by singles, dead votes, votes counted X times, legal votes tossed, et al) that I simply do not believe the totals as presented. This goes far beyond simple moonbattery.
I’ve said that for at least the past 4 elections. When not a single Republican gain of a Dem seat at the federal level has been registered in 18 years nor the defeat of an incumbent Democrat in 22, in a state with that many seats (53), something is very wrong here. I think Sessions’ Justice should take a very close look at the state (and NV, too, which looked to employ similar methods).
If the GOP had a say in NM redistricting, I’d put Albuquerque/Bernalillo and Santa Fe in one seat for the Dems and draw 2 seats for the GOP.
Some parts of ABQQ vote GOP, but, yes, all of those heavily RAT areas (plus Taos and Indian reservations in other counties) could be combined in a single über-Democrat district that would have a Hispanic majority, and leave two GOP-leaning districts in the rest of the state (one of which could have a Hispanic majority as well).
Thanks for posting all of these CD results, Impy.
You forgot to highlight that NJ-07 (Republican Leonard Lance’s CD) had given Romney 52.5% but held Trump to only 47.5%, making it the only CD in the state to go from R to D in the presidential race. Surprisingly, Trump underperformed Romney even more in the NJ-07 than he did in the even more upscale NJ-11.
In RI, Trump outperformed Romney massively in blue-collar suburban and small-town areas. It actually would have been possible to draw a CD in RI that voted for Trump, but, alas, the Democrats always made sure to split Providence between the two CDs so that both elect Democrats, and the whole exercise will be moot come the 2022 elections because RI will lose a CD and become a single-district state.
Good stuff.
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