Skip to comments.
Losers Who Won't Lose: What Are The Odds Of A Successful Hillary Recount?
Zero Hedge ^
| 11/27/2016
| Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog
Posted on 11/27/2016 5:09:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,
President-elect Trump won 306 electoral votes versus Hillary Clinton's 232 (24% less electoral votes). Similar to 2000, the surrendering party then reversed course and put the nation through a recount, just for the sake of it. What are the odds that such an exercise here would yield successful for Ms. Clinton? Based on statistical randomness of re-assessing voter intent, the chance of Hillary emerging as the victor is far less than 10%.
Anything can happen, but these lean odds do not rise to the level of putting our peaceful democracy into the hands of a temptuous recount scheme every time a stung party loses (let alone misleadingly blame it on something else from Russia's Putin, to sexism, to "in hindsight the popular vote would be reasonable", to FBI Director Comey). All Americans should instead focus on how the 6 states that flipped this election, were all economically ignored and all flipped to Donald Trump.
The only viable path for a Hillary Clinton victory at this stage is to astoundingly uncover a wide-spread (across three states) fraud. And that's equally unlikely, since the basis for the voting aberrations occurred in less populated counties and anyway the three states employ three different voting mechanisms, so the fraud would have had to somehow occur through different transmission vehicles (paper voting, and electronic voting) and we would require a speedy judicial resolution for states such as Pennsylvania that sidestepped back-up recordings from their direct voting equipment.
We should note the following statistical facts about the electoral vote in the three recount states:
- 10 votes, Wisconsin (Trump leads by 0.9 percentage points)
- 20 votes, Pennsylvania (Trump leads by 1.1 percentage points)
- 16 votes, Michigan (Trump leads by 0.2 percentage points)
Given that Mr. Trump won by 74 electoral votes, Ms. Clinton would need to flip all three states noted above, in order to liquidate this deficit (i.e., >74/2 = >37 votes). The leads described above however, among 4.4 million voters from these three states, is highly statistically significant on a state-level (and certainly when all three states are combined). It would be remarkably unlikely (>5? event) that we would arbitrarily second-guess every one of these millions of voters' intents and, convert any (certainly let alone all) of these three states.
Hillary must be cognizant of this improbability, and so is piggy-backing off of the second most reasonable recount rationale: not that errors in intent occurred, but rather straight-fraud on such a scale that would flip most of these states. While tempting for true Democrat supporters, this fraud scenario is of course dubious. Because for it to work, we would need to suppose that such fraud occurred in three different ways at once:
- Michigan is a paper-ballot state (no electronic voter equipment hacking) so fraud is virtually unlikely to show at all
- Wisconsin does have paper back-ups recorded though the counties that are most heterogeneous, are lesser-populated and not so wildly-off probabilistically
- Pennsylvania has similar issues to Wisconsin, except they haven't recorded all of their votes in an auditable back-up so judicial hurdles must be overcome
The bottom line is everything must go right here, in all three state recounts (between proving fraud and getting mathematical help from wide-spread voter intent errors), in order to better align towards a Donald Trump downfall. And even if this all occurred, accounting for all of these statistical adjustments, the probability of a Hillary Clinton triumph is still quite low.
Lower than the odds that comic Nate Silver and all of the other "pollsters" gave to Mr. Trump throughout this election season. It is these same pollsters and juvenile campaign "scientists" who completely mis-forecasted Ms. Clinton's path, who are now gasping for a recount phenomenon. This was nicely articulated in a recent Bloomberg article here:
TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016recount; bloggers; jillstein; mathsucks; odds; recount; suckittrebek
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-66 next last
To: SeekAndFind
“What Are The Odds ... “
Zero. She lost.
41
posted on
11/27/2016 5:49:44 PM PST
by
tumblindice
(America's founding fathers, all armed conservatives)
To: madison10
EGBAR ... everythings going to be alright ...
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYCpWblDKok
-
Don’t worry about a thing
Because every little things gonna be alright
Singing don’t worry about a thing
Because every little things gonna be alright
Rise up this morning
Smiled with the rising sun
Three little birds
Pitch by my doorstep
Singing sweet songs
Of melodies pure and true
Saying “this is my message to you”
Singing don’t worry about a thing
Because every little things gonna be alright
Singing don’t worry ... don’t worry ... about a thing
Because every little things gonna be alright
Rise up this morning
Smiled with the rising sun
Three little birds
Pitch by my doorstep
Singing sweet songs
Of melodies pure and true
Saying “this is my message to you”
Singing don’t worry about a thing, don’t worry about a thing,
Because every little things gonna be alright,
don’t worry ...
42
posted on
11/27/2016 5:51:31 PM PST
by
Repeal The 17th
(I was conceived in liberty, how about you?)
To: madison10
>>What do you believe this is about? Other than ruining our holidays?<<
Are you kidding? This is GREAT!! The snowflakes have RENEWED HOPE!!!
When it gets dashed to bits we will be able to enjoy the schadenfreude ANEW!
43
posted on
11/27/2016 5:51:48 PM PST
by
freedumb2003
(Good morning President Trump)
To: madison10
LOL! Pity the poor worms!
I think she could recover quickly if she thought she could be elected in 2020. She would rise Phoenix like and look healthy and vigorous (face lift and botox will help)
To: freedumb2003
if there is no looking at and substantiating the number of voters who cast votes then there is no way to say if a recount is accurate. This may be why Franken and others kept adding votes.
A recount should have a total number of votes known at the start and then just recount to be sure those votes were allotted to the proper people.
Kind of like when you know your gold-plated flatware has 24 pieces of each knife fork and spoon and after a party you wash and recount to be sure none went in the trash or such by accident. You should not come up with 25 pieces of anything. That is a recount. Coming up with more votes than you had listed as having voted, as has been reported at times, or boxes of votes never counted the first time etc is not a recount.
45
posted on
11/27/2016 5:55:38 PM PST
by
b4me
(If Jesus came to set us free, why are so many professed Believers still in chains?)
To: SeekAndFind
To: pfflier
This is my concern, also
I think this is their endgame. The ensuing violent widespread reaction from our half of America will prompt bozo to declare martial law zone and try to keep power
I hope I am wrong.
47
posted on
11/27/2016 5:59:10 PM PST
by
QualityMan
(I will not comply.)
To: SeekAndFind
48
posted on
11/27/2016 6:00:08 PM PST
by
boycott
(S)
To: SeekAndFind
Given that Mr. Trump won by 74 electoral votes, Ms. Clinton would need to flip all three states noted above, in order to liquidate this deficit (i.e., >74/2 = >37 votes) and she then would need to win the resulting Second Civil War.Fixed.
49
posted on
11/27/2016 6:07:19 PM PST
by
Repeal 16-17
(Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
To: PGalt
50
posted on
11/27/2016 6:12:03 PM PST
by
MrEdd
(MrEdd)
To: SeekAndFind
To: PGalt
“Many criminals never stop unless incarcerated or eliminated.”
Which remains lost to some Freepers. Trump I’m sure is rounding up his next DOJ people on his first day and go after Clinton and Stein. Soros, I hope is 3rd.
52
posted on
11/27/2016 6:19:40 PM PST
by
max americana
(For the 9th time FIRED LIBERALS from our company at this election, and every election since 2008)
To: SeekAndFind
Is the presumption that the recounts will be accurate and fair? The recount in FLA in 2000 was a joke.
53
posted on
11/27/2016 6:37:44 PM PST
by
dhs12345
Hillary will probably gain 50 kilovotes per recount of recount until she gains enough to win wisconsin. But after that she still loses.
54
posted on
11/27/2016 6:37:58 PM PST
by
dsrtsage
(One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
To: SeekAndFind
People, please ... stop thinking about the number of votes. The actual count of votes has NOTHING to do with this recount debacle! NOTHING!
On December 13, all states must submit certified vote counts, for their Electors to cast their all-important Electoral College votes. The date is fixed in stone, by law, and cannot be changed.
Now, if any state doesn’t have a certified vote count — say the recount wasn’t finished in time — then the Electoral College votes for that state won’t be counted. Tally up the electoral votes for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and you get 48. Subtract 48 from Donald Trump’s total and that puts him below the “majority” number of 270.
If no candidate reaches a majority, then the names of the top three finishers will go to the House of Representatives, who will then decide who becomes president.
Jill Stein, and Hillary by association, have no real hope of collecting enough votes in a recount to actually win the election. Their scheme is to throw the election into the House and take their chances there.
NOW do you see the danger in the recount mess?
55
posted on
11/27/2016 7:03:36 PM PST
by
DNME
(This is the tyranny that the Founders warned us about.)
To: freedumb2003
Stein is asking for PA voters 3 people from each precinct to fill out an affidavit saying they believe there was vote tampering (hacking) here is an excerpt of the form they will submit:
“I believe that an error, although not apparent on the face of the returns, has been
committed in the vote in this district. I also believe there is a discrepancy in the returns of this
district.
4. My belief is based, in part, on the attached Affidavit of Alex Halderman, which
raises grave concerns about the integrity of DRE voting machines used in this district. See Ex. A (attached)”
here is the whole form:
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a8854aa8286e235a9e6a58f2b/files/Smaller_PA_DRE_Petition_Halderman_Aff._Exhibits_1_.pdf
Could this be used for the vote tampering allegations?
56
posted on
11/27/2016 7:11:58 PM PST
by
funfan
To: DNME
On December 13, all states must submit certified vote counts, for their Electors to cast their all-important Electoral College votes. The date is fixed in stone, by law, and cannot be changed. Now, if any state doesnt have a certified vote count say the recount wasnt finished in time then the Electoral College votes for that state wont be counted. Tally up the electoral votes for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and you get 48. Subtract 48 from Donald Trumps total and that puts him below the majority number of 270.
That is incorrect. If a State so submit no later than December 13, that State's vote totals are presumed valid by Congress. Otherwise, that State is not awarded that presumption. The electoral votes would still be valid.
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/key-dates.html
57
posted on
11/27/2016 7:25:10 PM PST
by
Repeal 16-17
(Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
To: SeekAndFind
58
posted on
11/27/2016 7:27:11 PM PST
by
GailA
(Ret. SCPO wife: Merry CHRISTmas, Happy Birthday JESUS CHRIST, suck it up buttercup you lost)
To: SeekAndFind
Odds don’t matter when the “counters” are corrupt.
59
posted on
11/27/2016 7:28:10 PM PST
by
stinkerpot65
(Global warming is a Marxist lie.)
To: hal ogen
This is a learning opportunity for those suggesting just moving on when it comes to LIBs. They must be CRUSHED and Re-CRUSHED. NO QUARTER...EVER. They are malignancies on any and every civilization.
I've come to agree with you. Mercy is returned by a stab in the back.
Crush them. Kick them while they're down. When you think they've had it, hit them some more for good measure.
60
posted on
11/27/2016 7:32:04 PM PST
by
JamesP81
(The DNC poses a greater threat to my liberty than terrorists, China, and Russia. Combined.)
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-66 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson