USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 11/08 -- Trump 46.8 (- 1.2) , Clinton 43.6 (+ .4)

USC/LA Times ^ | November 8, 2016 | USC/LA Times

[BlessedBeGod]

	11/08	11/07	Change
Trump	46.8	48.0	- 1.2
Clinton	43.6	43.2	+ . 4

[ScaniaBoy]

If one just looks at Hart’s Connection there is a more then 20% swing towards Trump! More than enough to off-set the 2012 results. So there!....
:-)

[apillar]

My gosh people, lay off the doom and gloom. By the sound of it you would think Trump was 10 points behind in this poll instead of 3.1% ahead! So it dropped some, this puts in right in the range of the historically most accurate poll the IDP/TIPP poll which sits at 2.4% (and ironically everybody is praising Trump’s lead in that one). Personally I’ll be thrilled Trump win’s by a 3% margin, which would around what Obama won by in 2012.

[Salamander]

We don’t have to show ID.

I *pointedly* show mine, anyway, and usually say to no one in particular, that we should ALL have to show our ID.

That used to get a giggle from my [R] poll worker/HS friend...the new goon, not so much.

More like a dagger-glare.

No matter.

I did the same thing to her in 2014.

And I will do it tomorrow and again, until she finally punches me or something.

[she’s a biggun]

:)

[SamAdams76]

I agree. The two most accurate polls from 2012 show Trump +3 or so on the final day. I’m pleasantly surprised. I figured all polls would show Crooked One slightly ahead as they are bought and paid for by the establishment.

I’m predicting that Trump comes away with 300+ EVs tonight.

[TMA62]

Included weekend polling which typically is not accurate.

Go out and vote, everyone. Lets bring home a winner!!

[Sooth2222]

The final 2012 Rand poll (11/6/12) had Obama 49.4%/Romney 46.8%, 2.6% spread.

Actual 2012 election result: Obama 51.1%/Romney 47.2%, 3.9% spread.

At 3.2%, this is a wider poll points spread than 2012.

IBD was #1 in 2012 and Rand -- now the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll -- was #4. Both show a Trump lead.

Can the majority of the polls be wrong?

Of course, if they are done badly! I don't see that it makes any sense to weight the worst performing polls in 2012 as much as the best ones, but the news stories weight them higher!

Gallup -- the "gold standard" for presidential election polling between 1936 and 2012 -- gave up on presidential election polling after their dismal 2012 performance. They (apparently) think it's impossible to do this accurately at a reasonable cost today. Most, if not all, of the major alphabet polls showing a Clinton lead are done much the same way as Gallup did its 1936 poll -- telephones and live, probably majority young female, interviewers -- but with a much smaller sample size.

(I have a red lizard mailbox flag. I didn't know it was political.)

[Nicojones]

Here is the 2012 graph for comparison to the 2016 final linked in the opening thread.

https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

Although Obama didn’t have a dramatic trend downward at the end, Romney was clearly surging. It wasn’t enough and the differential held. Pray that the 2016 poll is as accurate as this one.

[Sooth2222]

Also, in their poll of October 26th 1980, Gallup had Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39.

In 1980, nobody had a cell phone and nobody had caller ID.

[dowcaet]

I think it’s a bigger win than we all anticipate. I know people are all pissed at the Comey con job, but it doesn’t change the fact that almost everyone, including Hillary’s own voters, know she’s a crook. Just have faith that are more of us than the braindeads.

[djpg]

Let’s not say forever. The country moved left in the 1930’s and 1960’s but came back eventually.

[ez]

Polling is a sick joke. I’m ready to see what the people have to say.

[JonPreston]

This poll seems to predict it will depress GOP turnout.

HRC spending last night in PA and MI tells me all I ned to know about the state of the race.

[JonPreston]

The country moved left in the 1930’s and 1960’s but came back eventually.

America is under active, ongoing invasion by illegal aliens. Their targets are the battleground states. In that respect there isn't a useful historical reference.

[Jay Thomas]

This didn’t surprise me. For some reason I thought this would be the last result.

It doesn’t matter to me, I’m voting anyways, in spite of them and their polls. And I’m in New York! For the rest of you:

DAMN THE POLLS, FULL SPEED AHEAD!!! GO TRUMP/PENCE!!!!!

[chimera]

We have to show ID in my state and they are very good about reminding us to bring it. You're right about the demographic shifts. The Dems haven't really converted anyone with appeals to reasonable policies and candidates of good character. They've kept the gravy train running and loaded it with the usual gang of freeloaders and parasites.

[Gay State Conservative]

...and Hildabeast gains .4 ?

Comey...Rat Party puppet.

[Gay State Conservative]

Anyone know how accurate this poll's been in the past...particularly in Presidential years?

[Gay State Conservative]

In addition to not understanding the main poll, I don't understand this at all, either. It's the "Intention to Vote" poll. How can his supporters' intention to vote tomorrow collapse, and hers rise?

If this is an accurate picture it's all thanks to Comey...who turned out to be a Rat Party plant all along.

[07Jack]

He is awesome! I once had one. It's a tough lizard to maintain in captivity, but judging from what I see in your photo, it looks like you know what your doing. My Veiled had a tragic end; I found one of his crickets outside his tank and put it back in. Unbeknownst to me, my parents had an exterminator spray our basement that day.....lizard ate the poisoned cricket and that was the end.

[Pikachu_Dad]

No, direct response to closing of the FBI case.

This poll has been pretty good in showing movement for significant campaign events.