Posted on 11/08/2016 12:10:17 AM PST by BlessedBeGod
|
11/08 |
11/07 |
Change |
Trump |
46.8 |
48.0 |
- 1.2 |
Clinton |
43.6 |
43.2 |
+ . 4 |
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
If one just looks at Hart’s Connection there is a more then 20% swing towards Trump! More than enough to off-set the 2012 results. So there!....
:-)
My gosh people, lay off the doom and gloom. By the sound of it you would think Trump was 10 points behind in this poll instead of 3.1% ahead! So it dropped some, this puts in right in the range of the historically most accurate poll the IDP/TIPP poll which sits at 2.4% (and ironically everybody is praising Trump’s lead in that one). Personally I’ll be thrilled Trump win’s by a 3% margin, which would around what Obama won by in 2012.
We don’t have to show ID.
I *pointedly* show mine, anyway, and usually say to no one in particular, that we should ALL have to show our ID.
That used to get a giggle from my [R] poll worker/HS friend...the new goon, not so much.
More like a dagger-glare.
No matter.
I did the same thing to her in 2014.
And I will do it tomorrow and again, until she finally punches me or something.
[she’s a biggun]
:)
I agree. The two most accurate polls from 2012 show Trump +3 or so on the final day. I’m pleasantly surprised. I figured all polls would show Crooked One slightly ahead as they are bought and paid for by the establishment.
I’m predicting that Trump comes away with 300+ EVs tonight.
Included weekend polling which typically is not accurate.
Go out and vote, everyone. Lets bring home a winner!!
Actual 2012 election result: Obama 51.1%/Romney 47.2%, 3.9% spread.
At 3.2%, this is a wider poll points spread than 2012.
IBD was #1 in 2012 and Rand -- now the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll -- was #4. Both show a Trump lead.
Can the majority of the polls be wrong?
Of course, if they are done badly! I don't see that it makes any sense to weight the worst performing polls in 2012 as much as the best ones, but the news stories weight them higher!
Gallup -- the "gold standard" for presidential election polling between 1936 and 2012 -- gave up on presidential election polling after their dismal 2012 performance. They (apparently) think it's impossible to do this accurately at a reasonable cost today. Most, if not all, of the major alphabet polls showing a Clinton lead are done much the same way as Gallup did its 1936 poll -- telephones and live, probably majority young female, interviewers -- but with a much smaller sample size.
(I have a red lizard mailbox flag. I didn't know it was political.)
Here is the 2012 graph for comparison to the 2016 final linked in the opening thread.
https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012
Although Obama didn’t have a dramatic trend downward at the end, Romney was clearly surging. It wasn’t enough and the differential held. Pray that the 2016 poll is as accurate as this one.
In 1980, nobody had a cell phone and nobody had caller ID.
I think it’s a bigger win than we all anticipate. I know people are all pissed at the Comey con job, but it doesn’t change the fact that almost everyone, including Hillary’s own voters, know she’s a crook. Just have faith that are more of us than the braindeads.
Let’s not say forever. The country moved left in the 1930’s and 1960’s but came back eventually.
Polling is a sick joke. I’m ready to see what the people have to say.
HRC spending last night in PA and MI tells me all I ned to know about the state of the race.
America is under active, ongoing invasion by illegal aliens. Their targets are the battleground states. In that respect there isn't a useful historical reference.
This didn’t surprise me. For some reason I thought this would be the last result.
It doesn’t matter to me, I’m voting anyways, in spite of them and their polls. And I’m in New York! For the rest of you:
DAMN THE POLLS, FULL SPEED AHEAD!!! GO TRUMP/PENCE!!!!!
Comey...Rat Party puppet.
If this is an accurate picture it's all thanks to Comey...who turned out to be a Rat Party plant all along.
No, direct response to closing of the FBI case.
This poll has been pretty good in showing movement for significant campaign events.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.