Florida Early Vote update, 10/27/2016

10/27/2016 | self

[sargon]

Is it possible that a significant number of Dem early voters are voting for Trump?

I feel like Trump's "monster vote" is becoming a reality, and didn't I read earlier today that on MSNBC Trump was characterized as "surging"?

I don't see how any of the Media voter suppression efforts will succeed against enthusiastic and hyper-determined Trump voters, and if that's the case, then the Media is going to have egg all over their faces. They will have been exposed as Regime shills.

The only alternative is that the Media will be proven to have been "correct" all along. That just seems impossible.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

[LS]

Yes. I won’t give you our numbers, but yes.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Here is yesterdays numbers for Colorado: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2016/20161026BallotsReceivedToDate.pdf

To view each day, go to: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/newsRoom/index.html

Click on the date, such as October 26 under press releases.

Then click Ballots received to date (PDF)

FYI: Yesterday, REPs cut DEM lead to 6.1% from 8.1% in 1 day.”

From McDonald: Good news for Reps: reg Dem +5.1 today, was +6.1 y’day

DEM lead decreased from 8.1 to 5.1 in 2 days in Colorado. “Beautiful Colorado” for those of you familiar with the saying.

[plushaye]

Have you seen this Michigan poll from Sunday night with HRC only 6 points ahead?

www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/213813298-story?utm

Don’t know the ID split but HRC is down with white females and millenials
- she’s weaker with Dems than Trump is with R’s
- Trump leads with Indies 50% to 18%!!
- Trump leads white voters
- Trump gets 14% Black vote and 34% ethnic vote

How is it possible Trump is only 6 points down?! Oversampled Dems again probably.

[plushaye]

I meant to say how is Trump 6 points down with such results? They must have oversampled Dems. The Reddit guys agree. I got the link from them. [They’re such great guys over at The_Donald reddit].

Is Michigan coming into play? That means PA is definitely in play and winnable.

[rb22982]

NC is looking very good too, although we'll get a better idea tomorrow with expanded early voting sites.

"In comparison to 2012's performance, registered Democrats are 48 percent of the total in-person ballots coming in so far, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012, while registered Republicans are 28 percent of the total, down slightly at 1 percent from their same-day totals in 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals."

ONSP
(black vote is down 25%+ vs 2012)
In person voting (55% of all votes): Ds down 13%, Rs down 1%, Ind +27%. If that doesn't change with expanded voting sites, NC is in the bag and likely Burr/McCrory win as well.

[rb22982]

NC is looking very good so far, but we’ll get a better idea tomorrow (today they expanded the # of early voting sites). In person voting is 55% of the total vote (65% of Ds, 45% of Rs) in 2012. Dems are -13% vs 2012, Rep are -1%, Ind +27% vs 2012, % of blacks down from ~30% to ~22%. If expanded sites does not change that trajectory, Trump wins NC by 5-8% (or more)

[plushaye]

Speaking of PA, new poll reported by Jack Porosbiec 1 hour ago. The Axiom Remington Research poll:

@JackPosobiec tweets this morning:
1) Wow. Trump polling at 29% with African Americans and 30% with Hispanics in PA

2) Trump polling at 32% in Democrat stronghold Philadelphia

3) Scoop: Trump Super PAC about to drop $5 million into PA

4) In Play: Bill Clinton suddenly announces 3 events in PA

[SpeedyInTexas]

Numbers from NC looking nice!

[Rumierules]

“In person voting is 55% of the total vote (65% of Ds, 45% of Rs) in 2012.”
_____________________

In person early voting? Or ALL in person voting?

[sargon]

Yes. I won’t give you our numbers, but yes.

"Our" numbers? Who is this collective to which you refer, if you don't mind my asking? Are you working in someone's campaign,or are you a political consultant or something? You seem knowledgeable abut the "behind the scenes" situation...

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

[ConservativeLawyer]

I agree. I’m in Florida, too, and I know quite a few Dems that are voting Trump.

Also, I know several people who voted for Obama in 2012 that early voted for 3rd party candidates.

[rb22982]

In person early voting is 55%. Mail in is around 5% also (Rs are down here vs 2012 by about 15k ballots).

[Rumierules]

But Bitzer just tweeted this:

“Just ran #s on today’s NC absentee ballots:
13 days from 2012 Election: 563K ballots from female voters
13 days from 2016 Election: 601K”

@BowTiePolitics

[Cobra64]

There is a reason there are colons and semi-colons in the English language.

This colon (:) symbol is I the appropriate delineator in this case, not a dash/minus symbol. If programmers don't understand the English language, they should go back to India.

[Rumierules]

The NYT seems to think that NC looks like a 6 point win for HRC. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=2

But they also admit that there prediction is based, in part, on their polling.

[rb22982]

1) They put too much emphasis on the absentee mail in ballots which skew very old people. They are down among Republicans vs 2012. These votes were like 5.5% of Republican totals and 4.5% of Democratic totals in 2012.
2) Absentee In Person voting is where the action is at. 65% of Democrat votes in 2012 came this way and 45% of Republicans. Early on, both Republicans and Democrats were down 10% in this group with indies up 30%. Indies are still up almost 30% but Republicans are now flat and Democrats are now down 13% vs 2012. I believe this group (early in person voting) is the true-representative sample of the state.

Indeed, on Saturday, total early votes (in person and mail in), Republicans were -15% behind 2012, Democrats were -8% behind 2012 and independents up 25%. Today, Democrats are down 11%, Republicans down 9% and indies still up 25%. This trend is going to continue unless the expansion of in person polling sites drastically increases Democratic early voting and not R. And yes, early voting helps Dems here - Obama had like a 300k vote lead going into election day (lost by 3%)

[rb22982]

Put another way, if you take Mail In Ballots + In person ballots from 2012 combined with their poll, the NYT is correct. The difference is I forecast out the lost mail in ballots for Republicans @ 20k vs 2012 (there were only 150k mail in ballots total in 2012 regardless of party). However, I'm forecasting lost in person ballots for Democrats of ~175-200k if this current trend continues (Dem -13% and getting worse).

If you assume the 30% increase in indies, which is nearly 50% male (very good mix) and nearly all white (85%) skew Trump, it's possible that rather than a 300k hole on votes on election day, Trump has a 100k hole. But like I said - we'll find out more over the next couple of days as early voting places expand (in 2012 it was expanded the whole time)

[Rumierules]

Thanks.

Question on Florida: Were there 5% more REP ballots than DEM ballots collected before in person voting started in 2012?

This article suggests things look good for HRC in Florida, but I think the author fails to account for the fact that, in 2012, Florida had fewer in person early voting days. Therefore, in 2012, REPs had a chance to build up an advantage (for a longer period of time) in Vote-by-Mail ballots than this year. This year, REPs started with an advantage in vote-by-mail ballots but it was smaller because in-person voting started earlier this year.

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/10/early-florida-voting-every-other-subject
“That’s right — four years ago, just as in-person voting was starting, there were 5% more Republican votes than Democratic votes. This year, the parties are much closer to even. And remember, once all the votes had been counted, Obama beat Romney in Florida. So Clinton is ahead of Obama’s winning pace.”

[rb22982]

I’m not as familiar with the FL stuff - I live in Charlotte and have access to 2012/2016 NC data so feel better about the analysis here but I would bet your right if the in person voting date changed.