[rb22982]

Put another way, if you take Mail In Ballots + In person ballots from 2012 combined with their poll, the NYT is correct. The difference is I forecast out the lost mail in ballots for Republicans @ 20k vs 2012 (there were only 150k mail in ballots total in 2012 regardless of party). However, I'm forecasting lost in person ballots for Democrats of ~175-200k if this current trend continues (Dem -13% and getting worse).

If you assume the 30% increase in indies, which is nearly 50% male (very good mix) and nearly all white (85%) skew Trump, it's possible that rather than a 300k hole on votes on election day, Trump has a 100k hole. But like I said - we'll find out more over the next couple of days as early voting places expand (in 2012 it was expanded the whole time)

[Rumierules]

Thanks.

Question on Florida: Were there 5% more REP ballots than DEM ballots collected before in person voting started in 2012?

This article suggests things look good for HRC in Florida, but I think the author fails to account for the fact that, in 2012, Florida had fewer in person early voting days. Therefore, in 2012, REPs had a chance to build up an advantage (for a longer period of time) in Vote-by-Mail ballots than this year. This year, REPs started with an advantage in vote-by-mail ballots but it was smaller because in-person voting started earlier this year.

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/10/early-florida-voting-every-other-subject
“That’s right — four years ago, just as in-person voting was starting, there were 5% more Republican votes than Democratic votes. This year, the parties are much closer to even. And remember, once all the votes had been counted, Obama beat Romney in Florida. So Clinton is ahead of Obama’s winning pace.”