Thanks.
Question on Florida: Were there 5% more REP ballots than DEM ballots collected before in person voting started in 2012?
This article suggests things look good for HRC in Florida, but I think the author fails to account for the fact that, in 2012, Florida had fewer in person early voting days. Therefore, in 2012, REPs had a chance to build up an advantage (for a longer period of time) in Vote-by-Mail ballots than this year. This year, REPs started with an advantage in vote-by-mail ballots but it was smaller because in-person voting started earlier this year.
http://crooksandliars.com/2016/10/early-florida-voting-every-other-subject
“That’s right — four years ago, just as in-person voting was starting, there were 5% more Republican votes than Democratic votes. This year, the parties are much closer to even. And remember, once all the votes had been counted, Obama beat Romney in Florida. So Clinton is ahead of Obama’s winning pace.”
I’m not as familiar with the FL stuff - I live in Charlotte and have access to 2012/2016 NC data so feel better about the analysis here but I would bet your right if the in person voting date changed.
wrong on so many levels. The next few lines refer to Early-In-Person voting otherwise known as EIP. EIP Voting advantage for Dems was ABSOLUTELY HUGE for them in 2012. Not this year. Over an 8 day period in 2012, the Dems amassed a 247,000 voter advantage from EIP voting. That averages to a daily advantage of 30,000 plus. They were running up the score on a daily basis in 2012. GOP had a marginal advantage of 74,000 with absentee ballots so in total DEMS went into election day with a 174,000 voter advantage. Yet Romney barely lost.
This year for EIP (which has lengthened to 13 or 14 days for most counties), the DEM daily advantage has dropped like a rock. Their advantage on day 1 was 24,000. Their advantage on day 2 was 6,000. Yesterday it was 4,000.
Well what’s changed? It appears GOP and unaffiliated voters are now also early voting like Dems always have. I noticed this pattern in 2014 when GOP also early voted significantly (not as much as the DEMS but close enough) and that probably helped save Scott in the governor’s race.
Also one small wildcard. A few GOP heavy counties do not start early voting until Saturday. Expect a further bounce in GOP voters starting Sunday. We will see how much that is and how it plays out. These counties are Hardee, Highlands, Pasco and Walton. Romney won all these counties.