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The NYT seems to think that NC looks like a 6 point win for HRC. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=2

But they also admit that there prediction is based, in part, on their polling.

1) They put too much emphasis on the absentee mail in ballots which skew very old people. They are down among Republicans vs 2012. These votes were like 5.5% of Republican totals and 4.5% of Democratic totals in 2012.
2) Absentee In Person voting is where the action is at. 65% of Democrat votes in 2012 came this way and 45% of Republicans. Early on, both Republicans and Democrats were down 10% in this group with indies up 30%. Indies are still up almost 30% but Republicans are now flat and Democrats are now down 13% vs 2012. I believe this group (early in person voting) is the true-representative sample of the state.

Indeed, on Saturday, total early votes (in person and mail in), Republicans were -15% behind 2012, Democrats were -8% behind 2012 and independents up 25%. Today, Democrats are down 11%, Republicans down 9% and indies still up 25%. This trend is going to continue unless the expansion of in person polling sites drastically increases Democratic early voting and not R. And yes, early voting helps Dems here - Obama had like a 300k vote lead going into election day (lost by 3%)

Put another way, if you take Mail In Ballots + In person ballots from 2012 combined with their poll, the NYT is correct. The difference is I forecast out the lost mail in ballots for Republicans @ 20k vs 2012 (there were only 150k mail in ballots total in 2012 regardless of party). However, I'm forecasting lost in person ballots for Democrats of ~175-200k if this current trend continues (Dem -13% and getting worse).

If you assume the 30% increase in indies, which is nearly 50% male (very good mix) and nearly all white (85%) skew Trump, it's possible that rather than a 300k hole on votes on election day, Trump has a 100k hole. But like I said - we'll find out more over the next couple of days as early voting places expand (in 2012 it was expanded the whole time)