Posted on 10/26/2016 8:53:12 AM PDT by grayhog
Donald Trump: 42% Hillary Clinton: 45% Gary Johnson: 5% Someone else: 1% Undecided: 7%
What is most interesting to me here is the demographics of who they polled. Democrat 48%, Republican 42%, Non Partisan 10%. That seems OK to me.
But, they also polled 14% African American. Pennsylvania is 10% according to census. And 64% of the people asked came from Philly (42%) and Pittsburgh (22%). Pennsylvania has roughly 12 million people. Philly has 1.5 million and Pittsburgh has 300k, so demographically those 2 cities are about 17% of PA's population. Trump won all of the areas polled that were not Philly and Pittsburgh.
Bottom line, if all you non Philly and Pittsburgh people show up, Trump should win PA. Even if they get the usual 115% turnout in Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
AFC has gone through the roof
Mygan Kelly will be PO’d. Hahahahaha!
Mygan Kelly will be PO’d. Hahahahaha! Those nostrils will be flaring a mile a minute!
The internals have Trump getting 29% of the black vote. If that is the case she is toast.
The interesting thing is although they polled higher percentage of the black vote, they report that 29% were for Trump. That seems unreasonable, though I like the thought of it.
In the other Axiom Poll that was done for Ohio, I don’t understand why they would oversample Republicans by 9%. Usually, it’s the other way around. Still, it’s nice to see Trump with a 4% lead in that poll, and I suspect he’ll take Ohio.
The only polls that really matter are the polls where we vote. I’m hoping for a huge Trump turnout.
Based on the poll attached, Trump just needs Philly not turning out in huge numbers. It’s hard to know if they covered all rural areas also and just lumped them into closest city, so not sure how city focused this is. Also, the woman numbers for Hillary must scare the hell out of D’s. I they were all “with her”!?
So a specifically Republican sponsored poll can only get him to within three in must-win PA?
Those "monster votes" in coal country and depressed former factory cities are probably under-represented in polls. Pray that it's enough to overcome traditional norms.
If TRUMP wins PA, the election is over for the Rats!
Not even close. There are many more Independents than 10%. That is nuts.
He’s going to have to win PA. I saw a Bloomberg poll in Florida that shows Trump up 2. But the most interesting thing was that they broke down the uncommitted voters. Some said they did not know or would not vote but 4% said they wouldn’t tell. I’m betting a disproportionate percent of those go to Trump. Could be a similar number in PA.
TRUMP is surging in PA. It’s going to come down to three counties. ...
DELCO
BUCKS
MONTGOMERY
TRUMP is surging in PA. It’s going to come down to three counties. ...
DELCO
BUCKS
MONTGOMERY
There’s another OH factor emerging that could be really helpful. Everything I’ve seen from Kucinich has endorsed peace. I don’t think he’s endorsed hillary. Add to that ethnic pride, I’m wondering if that Kucinich vote is going to be all that strong for the dems this year.
If this is the same poll I looked at, Hillary’s toast.. which I have believed all along, in PA.
She’s only up 2 in Pittsburgh (a region that gave Obama 100k votes in 12)... Shes down 9 in Erie, region Obama won both times, and She’s behind in Harrisburg, again, an area Obama won twice.
Her numbers out out of philly in this poll at 56% for that region (I am assuming these are by region) is not going to be high enough to remotely give her enough of a lead to overwhelm the rest of the state.
R’s have put ~ 2.7M votes in the box the last 3 elections and that was with an unpopular war president and 2 dogs at the top of the ticket... D’s have put 3M, 3.3M and 3M in the box the last 3 cycles...
Hillary is NOWHERE near OBama 12 levels of support, or even Kerry 2004 (unpopular war turnout) levels... I suspect she’s going to be closer to Gore’s 2000 numbers of about 2.5/6 M votes... and Trump is going to absolutely CRUSH the history 2.7M ish votes.. I fully expect him to have 3M at least in the box on election day.
Trump has by far got the most support and enthusiasm of any R I have seen in the 30 years of living in PA, and that includes the 88 BUSH campaign which Bush won. I just don’t see how he doesn’t put 3M+ in the box, and I really see no way Hillary can get close to that.
Time will tell if I am just a doddering old fool or not.. but I really see no math that gets Hillary PA.
You are probably citing census data and it's possible the poll is including the suburban areas when they say "Philly" or "Pittsburgh". Would be interesting to know if we are comparing the same geographic footprints or not. That being said, very encouraging results.
ONLY massive fraud within the usual suspects (Philly and Pittsburgh) put Hitlery over the top there.
Undecideds are going to break Trump everywhere, traditionally undecideds break 2-1 for the challenger... I expect Trump to get 3-4 to 1.
Trump has Ohio, Iowa and Florida. Imagine the talking heads if they have to announce Trump has also taken Pennsylvania?!? That would be a real treat on election night.
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