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Florida Early Vote update, 10/25/2016
10/25/2016 | self

Posted on 10/25/2016 6:44:27 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 41.5% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

44.1% of REP ballots, have been returned and 41.7% of DEM ballots have been returned.

10/25/16: REPs - 556,058, DEMs - 525,076 lead of 30,982 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.7%

10/24/16: REPs - 503,632, DEMs - 483,019 lead of 20,613 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%

10/23/16: REPs - 496,040, DEMs - 476,292 lead of 19,748 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%

10/22/16: REPs - 463,959, DEMs - 443,502 lead of 20,457 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/25/16: REPs - 41,660, DEMs - 50,050, lead of 8,390 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting

10/24/16: REPs - 33,400, DEMs - 38,935, lead of 5,535 for DEMs

10/23/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs

10/22/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs

10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS:
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In-Person early voting has started. DEMs will likely take the lead with in-person voting. The goal is to reduce their lead from 2012's margin.

2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000

Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000

Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes

2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 30,982

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 24,007

Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 6,975

1 posted on 10/25/2016 6:44:27 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.

3,191,036 total absentee ballots mailed as of today

2,552,828 total returned (3,191,036 * 0.8)

1,097,716 - REP 43% (2,552,828 * 0.43)

1,021,131 - DEM 40% (2,552,828 * 0.40)

76,585 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS

Today’s margin is 2.3%. Some questioned my 3% target, but 3% is definitely possible.


2 posted on 10/25/2016 6:51:29 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi; LS; right-wingin_It

ping


3 posted on 10/25/2016 6:52:42 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Do you believe that Abseentee ballots will comprise a greater percentage of the overall vote than in 2012? If so, significantly more?


4 posted on 10/25/2016 6:59:25 AM PDT by Rumierules
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks for the update! I have this website bookmarked and check it every morning. These last 2 weeks will be the death of me....especially with the piecemeal of voting updates.


5 posted on 10/25/2016 6:59:51 AM PDT by zr2hammer
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks. I want to say first day of early voting in 2012 Dems had a massive lead much greater than today’s 24,000 lead. I am going by memory here though need confirmation.


6 posted on 10/25/2016 7:00:43 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

How about saying this is better or the same as 2012?

for us morons :)


7 posted on 10/25/2016 7:01:55 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: Rumierules

Yes i think 60:40 split. We will see.


8 posted on 10/25/2016 7:04:22 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

That would be great. McDonald or Smith will likely show the numbers soon.

On NC, McDonald has been all over TV saying Iowa and Ohio look good for Trump and NC and Florida look good for Clinton.

However, DEMs are down in NC compared to 2012 and lost the state. I think McDonald is going to have to change NC to looking good for Trump. Waiting with joy for that moment.


9 posted on 10/25/2016 7:04:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

He is spinning himself.


10 posted on 10/25/2016 7:05:58 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: dp0622

No one is a moron, but we are all Deplorables!

Bottom line, I’m expecting REPs to have a lead in 2016 absentee ballots by a similar margin compared to 2012. Probably a lead around 80,000 +/- 5,000.

But, there are ALOT more absentee ballots this year than 2012. That could take away from DEM traditional lead in in-person voting.

I won’t be surprised that the DEM combined lead from absentee ballots and in-person early voting is LESS than 2012.

Definitely nothing negative from Florida numbers at this point, and potentially a positive position heading into election day.


11 posted on 10/25/2016 7:09:34 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas
"Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn · 36m36 minutes ago  Manhattan, NY We have 189 respondents from our two NC polls who have already voted early, per state data. Clinton leads among them 57-36. Johnson 3. "

FWIW, sounds like a low Dem early turnout to me.

I'm still unable to wrap my head around the early voting numbers, maybe soon.

12 posted on 10/25/2016 7:09:55 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

The wildcard this year is that we don’t know how many D votes are for Trump. While the margins are smaller than 2012, a very plausible explanation for this could be D support for Trump. Romney received 9% of D votes in Florida on 2012. If Trump is even at 12%-15% of D votes, it makes a difference.


13 posted on 10/25/2016 7:10:09 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!!)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I would not say that North Carolina looks good for Cankles. The African-American vote is not showing up.


14 posted on 10/25/2016 7:10:13 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Does FL list absentee ballots requested by party, or just returned?


15 posted on 10/25/2016 7:10:39 AM PDT by JamesP81
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks man!


16 posted on 10/25/2016 7:12:06 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: mrsmith

DEMs lead in NC early voting. So that shouldn’t be a surprise for Nate Cohn. But, their margin is LESS than 2012 and they lost they state that year!


17 posted on 10/25/2016 7:13:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: JamesP81

By party for requests and for returned.


18 posted on 10/25/2016 7:14:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Exactly. Dems lead in early voting in 2012, and still lost the state by 3% to Romney. Dems are not turning out in North Carolina like in 2012.


19 posted on 10/25/2016 7:14:37 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: mrs9x

Yes, decreased AA turnout so far in NC and Ohio.

AA turnout in Florida for absentee is approximately equal to 2012. I’m expecting decreased turnout for in-person early voting. Waiting for those numbers to come out.


20 posted on 10/25/2016 7:15:54 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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