How about saying this is better or the same as 2012?
for us morons :)
No one is a moron, but we are all Deplorables!
Bottom line, I’m expecting REPs to have a lead in 2016 absentee ballots by a similar margin compared to 2012. Probably a lead around 80,000 +/- 5,000.
But, there are ALOT more absentee ballots this year than 2012. That could take away from DEM traditional lead in in-person voting.
I won’t be surprised that the DEM combined lead from absentee ballots and in-person early voting is LESS than 2012.
Definitely nothing negative from Florida numbers at this point, and potentially a positive position heading into election day.
Right now we’re at 50% of R advantage in absentees in 2012. But the hurricane affected returns as we are seeing returns come in much faster now. Speedy is saying we could likely hit 90-95% of 2012 returns.
I think we still may eclipse 2012 because of the impact of the hurricane slowing mail, slowing people’s response in mailing in absentees, etc. It won’t be much better if we get there, but then again, it is highly likely that Trump is getting at least +5% of indies (1.5m) or another 75,000 there.