[SpeedyInTexas]

In-Person early voting has started. DEMs will likely take the lead with in-person voting. The goal is to reduce their lead from 2012's margin.

2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000

Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000

Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes

2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 30,982

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 24,007

Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 6,975

[SpeedyInTexas]

Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.

3,191,036 total absentee ballots mailed as of today

2,552,828 total returned (3,191,036 * 0.8)

1,097,716 - REP 43% (2,552,828 * 0.43)

1,021,131 - DEM 40% (2,552,828 * 0.40)

76,585 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS

Today’s margin is 2.3%. Some questioned my 3% target, but 3% is definitely possible.

[zr2hammer]

Thanks for the update! I have this website bookmarked and check it every morning. These last 2 weeks will be the death of me....especially with the piecemeal of voting updates.

[usafa92]

The wildcard this year is that we don’t know how many D votes are for Trump. While the margins are smaller than 2012, a very plausible explanation for this could be D support for Trump. Romney received 9% of D votes in Florida on 2012. If Trump is even at 12%-15% of D votes, it makes a difference.

[JamesP81]

Does FL list absentee ballots requested by party, or just returned?

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

Thanks for your hard work! Is there any way to separate the dem absentee voe into Alive vs. Deceased?

[Stand Watch Listen]

Here are the phone numbers (for each state) to report election fraud:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3484590/posts

[ncalburt]

Warning

Brevard Cty Fl told us on the phone yesterday .

The Hurricane may have caused thousands of lost absentee ballots from arriving .

So ,check on your absentee ballots In Brevard !!!

We deemed our ballots lost So we had to request again yesterday .

[LS]

You are starting to make me a believer.

This is CLEARLY the result of the hurricane slowing down mail, taking peoples’ minds off the election. For example, I know a fellow on the east coast who spent days boarding up his property, and even though he was spared, the winds caused damage to his five acres and it took him a week to dig out, clear trees, etc. The last thing people think about is mailing in a ballot at that time.

I now think it PERHAPS might not be impossible to get to 82-3% returns, but I still think the margin of 3% is optimistic. Doable, but we’ll see.

[Hyman Roth]

I live in Fayetteville, NC. The AA early vote is waaaaay down. Trump will win NC. I know a lot of registered D’s on the Trump Train.

[right-wingin_It]

Two things:

1) Some counties have not submitted early voting stats yet.

2) I have a comparison of current FL In-Person Early voting ballot turnout to 2012:

- With this much of the total In-Person Early ballots in so far (291,449 ballots), compared to 2012 when first 298,637 In-Person Early Ballots were received, registered Republicans are now + 5.5%, Dems -6.3%, UNF/OTHER -85.6%!!!!

So the early vote is up for both Repubs and Dems (it took till Saturday in 2012 to have this much vote in), but as a ratio in 2016 with this much vote in, Republicans are doing waaaay better than Dems right now compared to 2012!!

Sources:
1) FL Secretary of State Website results as of today Oct 25 mid day, and
2) 2012 information of the early vote (through Saturday October 27, 2012, published at Miami Herald website on Oct, 28, 2012. here

[right-wingin_It]

I apologize — I made a mistake on the unaffiliated calculation. The Reps and Dems are correct. Republicans out performing Dems compared to 2012. I will recalculate the unaffiliated