Posted on 10/21/2016 7:17:03 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Wednesday we were stunned to hear a Hillary Clinton campaign spokesperson casually say, “in the next three weeks we expect the polls to tighten significantly.”
This begs the question: "Why would a Clinton spokesperson say the polls would “tighten” let alone say “the polls [would] tighten significantly?”
Why would this be?
Even Natie Silver knows the polls we see are fake and built on fake turnout models ; that’s why.
Because Donald Trump has not been stopped by the fake false accusations against him by women seeking their 15 minute of fame, they have to try something else. That something else is risky, but desperate times make for desperate people.
The obvious ploy the Media- Democrat cabal has to be thinking about is to have polls show Trump closing and closing and taking a lead so they can hit him with a barrage of lies and re-fake the polls to show he is now finally collapsing. Sure this is crazy but the thought of losing has made the left crazy.
The opening move has already been made by the crooks at NBC who are so flummoxed over Trump that they have released state polls showing Trump wining several important states which would be impossible if their national poll so aptly named “The Monkey poll” was correct.
The excellent work from Sundance at theconservativetreehouse.com puts this situation in a light that lets us see what is really going on with the fraudulent manipulation of polling data.
He writes, “Fortunately, we are at the stage in the presidential race where it is actually possible to gauge what’s going on by looking at ballots, early voting, absentee ballot distribution modeling, and comparisons to prior elections. Even if the media doesn’t want to take that approach, we can do it ourselves.”
Sundance credits, “Reader/Contributor “FLEPOREBLOG” [who] has assembled some data to highlight reality. Empirical data rebukes the gaslighting and help people(s) break the abusive cycle of battered voter syndrome:
As to North Carolina FLEPOREBLOG, said, “Folks ask me where is [the] evidence of the Monster Vote. As of 10-15-16 the Party Affiliation in NC are as follows:
Republicans – 30.2%
Democrats – 39.7%
Libertarians – 0.5%
UNA (Independents) – 29.7%
Male Registered Voters: 3,047,319 (44.8%)
Female Registered Voters: 3,613,040 (53.2%)
Didn’t Provide Gender Data: 135,347 (2.0%)
Total Registered Voters: 6,795,706
Data source http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/absentee-data
Latest NC Early Mail Voting as of 10/18
15,610 (+922 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (9.3% Lead up from 9.1% on 10/17 {+0.2%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
REP: 67,954 (+2,679 from 10/17)
DEM: 52,344 (+1,757 from 10/17)
LIB: 597 (+29 from 10/17)
UNA: 47,276 (+1,946 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 168,171 (+6,411 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 40.4% (same from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 31.1% (-0.2% from 10/17)
Lib: 0.4% (same from 10/17)
UNA: 28.1% (+0.1% from 10/17)
1,742 (+541 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (3.8% Lead up from 2.9% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned & Accepted
Rep: 18,120 (+2,177 from 10/17)
DEM: 16,378 (+1,636 from 10/17)
Lib: 123 (+12 from 10/17)
UNA: 11,618 (+1,261 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 46,239 (+5,086 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 39.2% (+0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem): 35.4% (-0.4% from 10/17) #Lib: 0.3% (same from 10/17)
# UNA: 25.1% (-0.1% from 10/17)
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196 ( New data out) concerning early voting party affiliation in NC
2016: D 37%, R 38%, I 25% (so far)
2012: D 47%, R 32%, I 21%
Interesting stuff for number junkies.
Bellwether Hamilton County Ohio:
Absentee Ballot Requests and Returns as of 10-18-16 http://boe.hamilton-co.org/data/absentee-voters-list.aspx (Source Link)
9,673 (-257 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (11.5% Lead down from 12.1% on 10/17 {-0.6%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
REP: 28,425 (+350 from 10/17)
DEM: 18,752 (+607 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 36,492 (+765 from 10/17)
LIB: 27 (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 58 (+2 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 83,754 (+1,724 from 10/17) Trump#: 33.9% (-0.3% from 10/17)
HRC#: 22.4% (+0.3% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 43.6% (same from 10/17)
LIB: 0.03% (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.07% (same from 10/17)
770 (-2 from 10/17) more registered Democrats have returned an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (7.7% Lead down from 37.0% on 10/17 {-29.3%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned
REP: 3,101 (+2,798 from 10/17)
DEM: 3,871 (+2,796 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 3,593 (+2,893 from 10/17)
LIB: 5 (+5 from 10/17)
Green Party: 8 (+6 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 10,578 (+8,498 from 10/17)
Trump#: 29.3% (+14.7% from 10/17)
HRC#: 37.0% (-14.7% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 34.0% (+0.3% from 10/17)
LIB: 0.5% (+0.5% from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.8% (+0.7% from 10/17)
We are looking really good in Ohio.
In Florida:
At this point don’t concern yourself with any polls coming out of FL. These tallies which are released daily [are] what is actually happening on the ground. Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as of 10-18-16
5,833 (+5,799 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (+0.9% Lead up from 0.0% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Rep: 265,657 (+55,0288 from 10/17)
DEM: 259,824 (+49,229 from 10/17)
Other: 17,457 (+3,105 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 96,874 (+19,600 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 639,812 (+126,962 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 41.5% (+0.4% from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 40.6% (-0.5% from 10/17)
Other: 2.7% (-0.1% from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 15.1% (same from 10/17)
20,832 (-19,720 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/78 (0.9% Lead down from 1.6% on 10/17 {-0.7%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
Rep: 940,578 (-41,261 from 10/17)
Dem: 919,746 (-21,541 from 10/17)
Other: 56,490 (-1,622 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 442,731 (-3,690 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 2,359,545 (-68,114 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 39.9% (-0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem): 39.0% (+0.2% from 10/17)
Other: 2.4% (same from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 18.8% (+0.4% from 10/17)
You can track this daily at https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
In Pennsylvania:
Week of 10/10 to 10/16
2,680 Republicans switched to Democrat
4,007 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat
5,197 Democrats switched to Republican
3,269 Others (Ind) switched to Republican
Yearly Total 2016
42,740 Republicans switched to Democrat
72,988 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat (Many to Vote for Bernie in Primary)
106,159 Democrats switched to Republican
53,448 Others (Ind) switched to Republican (Many to Vote for Trump)
In Nevada
Early Voting Data from NV comparing early voting %s between 2012 and 2016
NV – 2012 44% D vs. 37% R
NV – 2016 33% D vs. 43% R (+17 points from 2012)
In NV at this time in 2012, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows
D = 42.2% (612,050 registered voters)
R = 34.1% (494,494 registered voters)
8.1% difference in favor of D
In NV at this time in 2016, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows
D = 39.8% (646,339 registered voters)
R = 33.0% (535,782 registered voters)
6.8% difference in favor of D
Large increase among Independents from 254,149 (17.5%) registered voters in 2012 to 334,960 (20.6%) registered voters in 2016.
Note: From 2012 numbers, Democrats have lost 2.4 % and Republicans have lost 1.1% while independents (favor Trump by 4 points) have seen an increase of their registration of 80,811 new voters.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-edges-trump-by-two-points-one-month-ahead-election.html
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/19/anti-gaslighting-raw-and-current-state-vote-data-not-remotely-close-to-media-polling/
First the polls will tighten significantly, as all these bogus polling outfits decide to make them more realistic, so they aren't flagrantly wrong.
And second, the Monster Vote comes in and Trump way outperforms even the tigher corrected fake polls on election day. And, presumably, wins. That's Your hypothesis (fueled by Gateway Pundit analysis, as laid out in your posting) in a nutshell. You've posted on it before.
My hypothesis is much simpler: the polls are pretty accurate when averaged, Trump is behind, and if he's still several points behind on election day, he will lose.
Further: because Nate's a smart guy and polls are mostly accurate when averaged: Nate will correctly call both the result and also correctly call all 51 (States + D.C.) races that contribute electoral votes.
In other words in my opinion there is no Monster Vote
.
We've got a simple baseline to test against:
Clinton is six points over Trump in the RCP average of 4-way race polls. Clinton 45.2%, Trump 39.2%
She's ahead a similar amount in the 2-way polls: 48.5% to 42%, a 6.5% Hillary advantage.
That particular number, 6%, is interesting to me. McCain lost by about 7.2% of the popular vote in his race against Obama in 2008. Romney did a little bit better in 2012, losing by 3.9%.
I've been thinking for a while now that Trump's likely outcome is similar to the last two elections, because when you cut through everything said and done: It is what it is
To back this up I will offer a prediction based on this theory, Trump will lose by about the average of McCain and Romney's loss, or 5.5% (pretty close to where he is today). So, only a little tightening will be seen.
The sad truth is that the only Presidential race the GOP has won even a plurality of popular votes in since 1992 was W's re-election, when the USA was at War and Bush was the incumbent.
Demographics are relentlessly against the GOP, it's a browner, more liberal America than even in 1992, a quarter century ago. And even with that, the best predictor of future performance, in elections, is past performance.
It is what it is.
See you on election night, sport!
Debbie Downer.
Because he was a FAKE ringer candidate for the party establishment. Willard was there to assure no Conservative got near the GOP nomination and to make sure Zero got a second term.
God gawd man, we need this data in a table, my eyes and brain hurts.
But he makes a credible analysis. I hope it turns out to be wrong.
Aside:
Bloomberg TV is talking about the Omnibus bill - and saying that everyone (including Ryan) is taking into account the ‘erosion of majorities’ in both the house and senate. The only way to pass it is to turn it into to ‘Godzilla’ spending bill. Heaven help us ...
Fortunately, the enthusiasm for Trump voters is strong, and we are not at all likely to be discouraged by any poll numbers. We're on a mission to save America; to sit this one out is to give up your home. Those are the stakes.
The pollsters get their “models” at the DNC’s Models R Us store, same as the climate changists.
YEP, also telling is their warning about Russia campaigning for Trump - that tells me there's a lot more negative email info about to drop.
I think the main reason behind this long planned, choreographed outrage about Trump and election acceptance, is to give them justification for not accepting Trump’s impending victory. Think about it. Progressive riots, algore2000 times 100. BLM riots in 50 cities.
Trump’s jiu-jitsu move would be to start loudly asking NOW what Hillary’s answer is—will she accept the results if SHE loses? If I’m right, she won’t give a clear answer.
Agreed wholeheartedly. We get the same poll doubters every 4 years. Rasmussen and LA Times are outliers. Trump is 4%-5% behind now and that is due mostly to demographics and the always more organized Democratic get out the vote ground game. They have more money, more backing and more volunteers. I am not expecting any election surprise. This one will be over like the last one when Trump loses Florida. There’s an 85% probability Hillary is our next president.
Rasmussen was apparently one of the most wrong in 2012, having Romney 4 points ahead of where he really was. Apparently they even overestimated how well Repubs would do in the 2010 mid-terms.
I’m not sure if the sale of the firm occurred after 2012 or not though. If it did, it may be under new ownership than it was in 2012.
Credibility and accuracy is not what some of the pollsters' clients want. For example, CNN, ABC, CBS...etc.
Exactly right.
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