First the polls will tighten significantly, as all these bogus polling outfits decide to make them more realistic, so they aren't flagrantly wrong.
And second, the Monster Vote comes in and Trump way outperforms even the tigher corrected fake polls on election day. And, presumably, wins. That's Your hypothesis (fueled by Gateway Pundit analysis, as laid out in your posting) in a nutshell. You've posted on it before.
My hypothesis is much simpler: the polls are pretty accurate when averaged, Trump is behind, and if he's still several points behind on election day, he will lose.
Further: because Nate's a smart guy and polls are mostly accurate when averaged: Nate will correctly call both the result and also correctly call all 51 (States + D.C.) races that contribute electoral votes.
In other words in my opinion there is no Monster Vote
.
We've got a simple baseline to test against:
Clinton is six points over Trump in the RCP average of 4-way race polls. Clinton 45.2%, Trump 39.2%
She's ahead a similar amount in the 2-way polls: 48.5% to 42%, a 6.5% Hillary advantage.
That particular number, 6%, is interesting to me. McCain lost by about 7.2% of the popular vote in his race against Obama in 2008. Romney did a little bit better in 2012, losing by 3.9%.
I've been thinking for a while now that Trump's likely outcome is similar to the last two elections, because when you cut through everything said and done: It is what it is
To back this up I will offer a prediction based on this theory, Trump will lose by about the average of McCain and Romney's loss, or 5.5% (pretty close to where he is today). So, only a little tightening will be seen.
The sad truth is that the only Presidential race the GOP has won even a plurality of popular votes in since 1992 was W's re-election, when the USA was at War and Bush was the incumbent.
Demographics are relentlessly against the GOP, it's a browner, more liberal America than even in 1992, a quarter century ago. And even with that, the best predictor of future performance, in elections, is past performance.
It is what it is.
See you on election night, sport!
Debbie Downer.
Agreed wholeheartedly. We get the same poll doubters every 4 years. Rasmussen and LA Times are outliers. Trump is 4%-5% behind now and that is due mostly to demographics and the always more organized Democratic get out the vote ground game. They have more money, more backing and more volunteers. I am not expecting any election surprise. This one will be over like the last one when Trump loses Florida. There’s an 85% probability Hillary is our next president.