Posted on 10/19/2016 7:27:45 AM PDT by rb22982
Washington, DC- Three weeks out from election day the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Clintons bump from the last week or so receding just in time for the third debate. The effects of Trumps hot mike incident and second debate performance appear to have subsided somewhat, and the election has reverted back to pre-debate levels
Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters, though her lead has shrunk to 4 percentage points, with Clinton at 43% to Trump at 39%.
When in the last 100 years has the the election had more than 2% difference in the national lead and the electoral college not going to the winner (hint: never). And even though EV are what matters, the direction of states WILL MIRROR national polls. It is not possible for Trump to be up 5 in florida and down 10% nationally (bloomberg, cbs, etc) when we lost Florida by 1-3% in the last two elections and only lost nationally by 4% or win Nevada where we lost the last 2 elections.
Latest Florida Polling averaged: Clinton up +3.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
Averaging of 13 most recent national polls: Clinton up 6.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
There are always outlier polls. Personally I discard the widest and narrowest and average the rest.
As 2012, 2014, and be exit showed, not all polls are created equal. The two most accurate 2012 polls show trump +1 and trump tied. Rcp is anti trump and still hasn’t added the wapo state polls showing trump up in those states. 2 way is irrelevant anyway. Only reason to look at two way is la times (rand) is only in the two way. But 3 polls show trumped tied and 3 have trump down around 10. One of those groups methodologies is off massively.
This poll is not D+14. It is D+ 4.6.
1750 total respondents. 723 democrats (41.3%), 643 republicans (36.7%), 210 independents (12%). That’s D+4.6%.
I use the realclearpolitics.com 4 way average, only I alter it by excludng the widest margin outlier and the narrowest margin outlier from the average.
Currently that means averagng 11 national polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
That means I excluded Monmouth College’s Clinton +12 and Investor Business Daily’s Trump +1
Doing that for brexit would have made it +6% off actual results, 2014 was 4 Pts off actual results and 2012 was a bit over 3 Pts off. Polls were off even more in 96 (not winner though) and 80. IBD has constantly been accurate on presidential elections and I believe 538 rated them most accurate in each of the last three.
For the current election cycle, 538 has analyzed 17 polls from IBD/TIPP and they have given that pollster an A minus rating. They have an average error rate of 2.3, they have called 78% of races correctly and they have shown a 0.7% Republican bias. All those scores are excellent.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
By way of contrast, Selzer & Company has a A plus rating. 37 polls analyzed, simple average error 4.6, 84% of races called correctly and 0.0 partisan bias.
Selzer is currently polling for Bloomberg News and they have the race with Clinton up by 9 in the 4-way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-19/national-poll
Bloomberg is massively anti-trump and wikileaks show he talked HRC people about cabinet position. We'll see what their poll for this race looks like on election day but I bet it won't be +9.
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