When in the last 100 years has the the election had more than 2% difference in the national lead and the electoral college not going to the winner (hint: never). And even though EV are what matters, the direction of states WILL MIRROR national polls. It is not possible for Trump to be up 5 in florida and down 10% nationally (bloomberg, cbs, etc) when we lost Florida by 1-3% in the last two elections and only lost nationally by 4% or win Nevada where we lost the last 2 elections.
Latest Florida Polling averaged: Clinton up +3.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
Averaging of 13 most recent national polls: Clinton up 6.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
There are always outlier polls. Personally I discard the widest and narrowest and average the rest.