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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
Always on hand. But, we’re inland and no sand. Kinda poetic.
Summary of 200 PM EDT...information
----------------------------------------------
about 65 mi...ESE of Guantanamo Cuba
about 55 mi...SSW of the eastern tip of Cuba
Max. sustained winds...145 mph...230 km/h
Moving...N at 10 mph
Pressure...949 mb
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Cover the keyhole with duct tape during the storm?
or you could use ABC gum.
well, i’ve stripped the boat and moved into a protected lagoon. i’ll still catch a lot of wind but not waves. i have food an water for a month or 2 and i generate my own power - i’m good
It could still get beaten up badly banging against the dock, are there padded bumpers on it? People used to sink their skiffs ahead of hurricanes on the Outer Banks, then pull them out afterwards.
Good to hear you are ready. Let’s hope the storm stays well offshore.
This looks uncomfortably close to shore... even as the GFS is starting to trend back to the east.
This map suggests hurricane force winds up to 40 miles inland along Florida, with a near-direct-hit at Titusville/Cape Canaveral.
“South Carolina Gov. Haley says state will evacuate coastal communities starting Wednesday morning ahead of Matthew”
@BreakingNews
Apparently, Ocean Isle Beach was under 24 feet of water from the storm surge and it swept the island clean. Fortunately, only a few people lived there at the time and it was only accessible by boat. Hazel came right through the gap of Haiti/Cuba and up the coast for a direct hit as a CAT 4. As the coasts on those islands are east/west a storm directly from the south is a direct hit unlike much of the Outer Banks.
Now, of course (like all those other barrier islands) there are thousands of people living there and thousands of homes, condos, and infrastructure. Anything approaching the conditions of Hazel could be a major catastrophe on that coast.
Hopefully, Matthew will either veer east and miss the coast entirely or rapidly lose strength after it heads north but it doesn't look like it will do as of right now.
Your wealth of info is greatly appreciated, as always!
Lived most of my life in NC. Heard many stories over the years about Hazel.
Yes - that's a loop.
This model brings the beast ashore - barely - around Melbourne, rides A1A to Jacksonville (I know - A1A isn't continuous), and when Nicole gets close enough, LOOPS BACK to hammer Florida again!
Of note - those numbers are hours... if this were to happen (and the Euro has typically been pretty good), then that's a real long time on target: 3 days until landfall, then another 4-5 days before maybe falling apart on the peninsula.
I sure hope this is wrong.
I can still remember all the buildings with high water marks on them, from childhood beach trips over a decade later. Hazel was one for the ages in NC.
I’m actually just the scare-monger of this little group :]
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