Was NAFTA Really So Bad for the Economy? Will NAFTA Come Back to Haunt Hillary Clinton?

The Fiscal Times ^ | September 28, 2016 | Janna Herron

[expat_panama]

...Trump called the trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States “the single worst trade deal ever approved in this country” during the first presidential debate against Hillary Clinton. Earlier this year, Bernie Sanders leveled a similar criticism, calling it disastrous when debating the former secretary of date...

...But whether NAFTA has been good or bad for the U.S. economy depends largely on who you ask...

...NAFTA “means jobs. American jobs, and good-paying American jobs. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't support this agreement,” then-President Clinton said in 1993.

Fast forward more than two decades later and NAFTA is rallying cry for those who believe free trade has done more for other countries than for American workers...

...Trump has promised to renegotiate NAFTA’s terms “to get a better deal for our workers,” according to his campaign site. If that doesn’t work, he vows to withdraw from the agreement altogether.

Clinton doesn’t address NAFTA specifically on her campaign site, but promises to “reject trade agreements that don’t meet “her high standard...

...According to one widely cited analysis, NAFTA has been a bad deal...

...The late ‘90s was a period of strong economic growth...

...if the U.S. economy did so well after NAFTA, is there any reason to think the trade agreement was harmful?...

...The report questioned whether the gains in trade under NAFTA were enough to offset the struggles of displaced workers and recommended that future agreements include stronger provisions to protect U.S. workers exposed to foreign competition.

But it may be too late for those Americans who have already lost their jobs to overseas competition and have been unable to enjoy the fruits of the larger and more efficient economy. Those workers are the ones who may use their votes this November as a referendum on free trade.

[expat_panama]

Friday morning kick-the-hornets-nest ping.

[impimp]

NAFTA is great for America. Thank you Ronald Reagan. And American workers need more protection from domestic regulations and taxes than foreign competition.

[Leaning Right]

Clinton doesn’t address NAFTA specifically on her campaign site, but promises to “reject trade agreements that don’t meet “her high standard...

In other words, she'll reject any trade agreement that won't enrich her personally.

[Alberta's Child]

Take it one step further ...

The biggest positive impact of NAFTA here in the U.S. is that it basically ended the government-owned energy company in Canada, and released the free flow of oil across both of our borders.

It's no accident that by the late 1990s both Canada and Mexico had surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest foreign suppliers of crude oil to the U.S.

[God luvs America]

...The late ‘90s was a period of strong economic growth...

thanks in large part to the dot_.com bubble, which eventually burst.

[wastoute]

I remember asking the wife how in the world our community could afford one giant big box store after another. Two WalMarts within a couple miles, lowes and home depot next to each other and two more five miles away, big Bo’s garden stores, an empty Target ten miles from a target across the street from the WalMart 5 miles away. And then I realized, they weren’t selling PRODUCTS, they were selling shares. And boy were they.

That was in the 1990s. Fast forward 2008. Boom. All those stores are still open. It is just everything in between is now vacant and shuttered.

[expat_panama]

It's FRIDAY!!  The NASDAQ and the S&P500 both ducked the better part of a % yesterday in strong trade.  The pundits say it was 'Euro-problems' but I say it was the 'unexpected' strong GDP growth: up +1.4% (they only expected +1.3%).  Ah.  Along w/ that came news that inflation's picking up 2.3% --over the Fed's 2% speed limit.  

Today's lineup:

8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM Core PCE Prices
9:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final

Let's see what today's PCE (Fed's favorite inflation index) says. Gold and silver continue slogging, at $1327.16 and $19.31.  Stock index futures -0.26%, metals -0.17%.

Must reads:

Businessmen Must Start Defending Themselves - Cliff Asness, City Journal
What If Trump Is Right About a Bond Mania? - Nigam Arora, MarketWatch
How to Protect Business from President Trump - Geoff Colvin, Fortune
Mr. Trump: I Have a Tax Deal for You - James Stewart, New York Times
How Will Robo Advisors Influence Investing Future? - John Divine, U.S.N
Gold Is Money Because It's Plentiful, Not Scarce - Nathan Lewis, Forbes
Banking Really Hasn't Changed Much Since the Panic - Jeff Snider, RCM
ObamaCare Death Spiral: Even Blue Cross Plans Bail Out - Editorial, IBD
CA's Moral Superiority Complex - Steven Greenhut, The American Spectator
Liberals rejoice over legalization of child prostitution in California

[God luvs America]

its sad...many a local family owned hardware and lumber store went out of business because of them...

[VitacoreVision]

How the Free Trade Agenda Is Knocking Down America
-- The New American (PDF) Special Report
http://www.thenewamerican.com/files/TNA2917.pdf

The Special Report includes the following articles:

- The "Free Trade" Agenda Threatens Our Rights
- Global Merger: Piece by Piece
- The EU: Regionalization Trumps Sovereignty
- Trade Promises... and Trade Reality
- North American Union: From NAFTA to the NAU
- Fast-track: Enabler of the "Free Trade" Agenda
- Regional Scheme for the Pacific Rim
- EU/U.S. -- Transatlantic Convergence

[expat_panama]

...American workers need more protection from domestic regulations and taxes than foreign competition...

[combat_boots]

I have read about the advantages in shipping and costs that China gets for sales on Amazon and through PayPal. Absolutely disgusting.

[Graybeard58]

Clinton doesn’t address NAFTA specifically on her campaign site, but promises to “reject trade agreements that don’t meet “her high standard...

******************************

That vile woman has also said that she would close every public school in the U.S. that was “below average”.

[wastoute]

The economic growth in the 90s was largely fiction. I recall BJ invited the CEOs of the top 100 to lunch for his first 100 days. “to reassure them”.

I don’t know what he told them but I suspect that it went something like, “This ‘new math’ thing is something we are all struggling with so it may be a while before we can really sort things out.”. They figured it out. Cook the books. Well, they figured the “new math” out real good right at the end. Can anyone besides me remember “Enron”?

Suicides and shame devastated corporate board rooms. THAT was the famous “dot com bust”. Meanwhile the Community Re investment Act was chugging through the banks setting up tranches of AAA junk in US Real Estate. So they not only engineered the “good years” but built the bomb that blew up in 2007 really, the shock wave didn’t destroy things until 2008.

So when I see folks talk about the Clinton Economy in 1990s I realize they had at least a couple of hemings of the Kool Aid.

[Heff]

The bigger question is does ANYTHING come back to haunt that evil piece of human excrement? It amazes me how she gets away with crap she does and NEVER held accountable.

[impimp]

Soon the big stores will close and will be replaced with Amazon.

[wastoute]

And, like I said, the product they were selling was not items that went out the door across the register. They were setting up stores that were doing almost no business. In fact I can take you to a huge Target not 5 miles from here that has had virtually NO CUSTOMERS for 6 years.

They were not selling products out of these new big boxes in the 90s but they WERE selling shares on Wall Street.

I knew a guy in the early 90s that quit the Navy in the early 90s after twelve years. Sailing around the world on his boat. I asked him once why he quit instead of finishing. He had been a backseat guy on carriers. He said in 12 years he had not spent a check. There was never opportunity. So he learned stocks. He said the year he realized he was making more from investment (a lot more) he quit. But I will never forget the advice he gave me. Never invest in a company you can not casually check up on fairly easily. Figure out so way to see for yourself. The example he gave me was oil companies. Every company will do whatever to paper over bad news. For oil companies the first corner to cut is housekeeping in the bathrooms. When the “books” say everything is fine but all of a sudden the bathrooms aren’ clean, get out.

So, remembering this, I got out of all my mutual funds when I got a bad feeling about just how thin the “90s good times” we’re coming to an end as BJ was being put out of DC. I missed a 40% correction. Entirely. I could see big boxes going up everywhere that we’re based on a business model that was NOT related to product sold but shares sold (Tulips, anyone). Hell, I am not even sure of the name, I think it was Frank’s Garden Center. They were everywhere all of a sudden. In 6 months they were all out of business. Frank got in, made a bundle selling shares, walked away rich, empty stores everywhere in his wake.

Yeah. When I see folks talking about the great 90s I realize PT Barnum was an optimist.

[wastoute]

I read Amazon’s success is due to Bezos’ realization that there were products like books that if you held it in your hands you could not tell if it had come from “Cinderella’s gold plated boutique” or “Pop’s Discount books”. Sotheby’s customer subconciously would not feel they were taking any risk buying online. His friend who started a similar business with products NOT having this quality went bust.

So there will always be brick and mortar for products folks want to touch before buying.

[impimp]

Sporting goods used to be that way...then people decided that they didn’t care to touch them before buying anymore.

[Iron Munro]

That vile woman has also said that she would close every public school in the U.S. that was “below average”.

Hillary Logic.

Eventually there would be only one school left.

Or all remaining schools would have to have the exact same rating.