Posted on 09/19/2016 8:25:29 AM PDT by mandaladon
As Donald Trump has caught up with Hillary Clinton in the polls, he has likewise closed the gap in the electoral college. Ipsos/Reuters says the race to 270 votes is now nearly tied. Many are focusing on Maine, which allocates its electoral college votes by Congressional district, and where one district going for Trump might change the result.
A reader who has been studying the numbers sends a link to 538 (“Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week”) and adds:
I presume Trump wins Nevada. Adjusting for that, if this is accurate Trump loses 265 – 273. So he needs New Hampshire desperately to tie, and then win in the House…or NH plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District for a bare win 270 – 268, second closest in history.
That could be right. But I think more likely, Trump will win rather easily, and win going away as he did the Republican primaries. I expect him to carry states like Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, maybe even Pennsylvania. Why? Two reasons.
The first can be explained with an old story from the world of marketing:
A company came out with a new dog food, and hired an advertising firm to promote the product. The ad agency placed commercials on television and ads in magazines; millions of dollars went into the campaign. The commercials and ads were first-rate, but still the dog food did not sell. The client called a meeting at the ad agency and demanded to know what had gone wrong.
After a moment of silence, the leader of the ad agency team explained: “The dogs don’t like it.”
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Just wait for the debates.
I believe the moderators will be irrelevant. I think Trump will be the one to make it hot for Hillary.
The only way trump loses is if he assumes room temperature.
“Maine, which allocates its electoral college votes by Congressional district”
If only California was not winner take all. Electoral votes from the rural sections would put Trump over the top.
I shudder to think of the trickery the cheerleaders, oops moderators, will employ to help Hillary. Putting Trump on a lower pedestal, making them both sit down, mandatory bathroom breaks every 20 minutes, stacked audience, interrupting Trump, cutting his mic off, manipulating the sound system. They will pull out ALL the stops. All Mr Trump has to do is keep his cool and he’ll do fine though. The people will see through all the games and it will be another exploding cigar for the media.
Exactly how I see it. Although if it’s this close it will be easy for Dems to steal. They just file suit against one county/state and do a recount to magically get the needed votes.
Watch, on election night, for the calls of NH, ME, PA, VA, and FL to be held up while MA and VT and IL are rung in before polls even close.
“She is too weak a candidate to be elected president”
True enough.
But we need to make sure she is not chosen as POTUS.
I agree that the fact that the MSM hates Trump so much makes me want to vote for him more even though I dislike Trump. I have come to learn that if I take the opposite action that the MSM wants me to take, I will likely be doing the right thing. The MSM thinks the American people are stupid. They are so full of themselves. They will be crying on election day.
To be sure, the MSM will play all sorts of games election eve. Let us pray the gap is just too large to make a difference. We have known all along Trump needs a 20 point spread to actually win.
You can’t base every thing on the polls, polls are never the last answer. there are liars on both sides of the polls.
The ONLY way that Trump can beat the ‘voter fraud’ they have planned is in a ‘landslide’ that means EVERY STATE needs to go RED!!!
“Just wait for the debates.
I believe the moderators will be irrelevant. I think Trump will be the one to make it hot for Hillary.”
I think the debates will be heavily stacked in Hillary’s favor. The media who supports Hillary know this is most likely Hillary’s last chance and will do what it takes.
How I wish California, with it’s 52 congressional districts, apportioned it’s electors by congressional district, like much smaller Nebraska and Maine.
Trump would probably get at least 20 electoral votes from California if this were the case, the equivalent of winning Pennsylvania!
I'm salivating.
And the closer we get to the election the more she will HAVE TO appear on TV.
Which brings into play the “Dick Morris Rule” (say what you want, but he is NOT politically stupid).
The Dick Morris Rule says that the more hilLIARy is seen and heard, the more her poll numbers go down.
And if she is ALREADY down in the polls, that will not bring her up.
“Watch, on election night, for the calls of NH, ME, PA, VA, and FL to be held up while MA and VT and IL are rung in before polls even close.”
Have you seen this? I’m curious to know what your take is on it:
Votecastr.us
Electoral vote by congressional district would have resulted in a Hussein loss in 2012:
http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/12/presidential-election-results-by.html?m=1
I expect the calls of all the safe Trump states to be held up. We'll see Hillary with NY, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, while there will be a long delay for Georgia, AL, Mississippi, South Carolina, etc.
Trump for President. If he does not make it America will become a dictatorship with the communists Democrats destroying your existence. Third world, here we come with Hillary and will be so until we are taken over by one of the communists Countries in the world.
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