Posted on 09/19/2016 5:25:54 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
As of 09/18/2016...
Trump 47.8%
Clinton 41.1%
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
If you go to their site, they state that they have retroactively reduced the error region (the grey band) I think from 5.5% to 5%, because they thought it was too conservative.
It is still nice to see this poll showing another uptick for Trump!
I check it every morning just for fun. Up until this morning, Trump had never scored outside the MOE, but now it shows he was well out of it after the convention in July. That is because they changed the way they calculate the MOE.
Anyway, this will be a good week to leave your car at home because most of Manhattan will be tied up in knots. My co-workers who drive have yet to show up at the office!
I did hear that Donald Trump might have a meeting today with the Egyptian president - before heading to Florida later today for his rally.
Wait-—they are saying currently they are “too conservative” in their estimate? So they will jiggered it to help Cankles?
I have to agree with some of the sentiment here, this last rash of bombings in NYC is the nail in the coughing(pun intended) for Hiterlary, fat lady warming up. I think we see the first Trump double-digit lead in national polls this week and some more states flipping from blue to red on MSM maps..like Michigan, Pa and . The problem with the mentally ill left and their logic contradictions when it comes to most any subject, when real life burst out of the hypothetical, their brains lock up..like Hillary. It truely is a mental illness
Jihadi bounce coming.
People are dying and being mortally wounded every day as a direct result of policies/actions/inaction of our government. Lives are being taken/ruined through murder/mayhem/rape!
Open borders and progressive ideology kills! But as long as it hits someone they dont know, it can be treated in the abstract.
Click on the Methodology tab for more information. Their results only use people that say they plan to vote in the upcoming election, although they will ask those non-voters later to see if they changed their mind.
PPD doesn't weight by party ID. They do weight by demographics: age, gender, race, education, and region.
PPD claims to have been the most accurate in the 2014 election, calling the net shift in the US House and Senate:
This will be their first year of polling for a Presidential election. It will be interesting to see if they can repeat their success.
I don’t include Fox because they do not report news either.
“Big spread and holding. Gotta see this poll.”
I thought for sure it would pull back some. Glad to see it is holding steady.
A controversial methodology, to be sure. But the people who run this poll are not fools - they are academics and political professionals with outstanding credentials. The poll is based on a RAND methodology, and has proved highly predictive in the past. It shows how real people change or do not change their mounds over time. I am informed that Trump’s lead is not due to the subjects here changing who they will vote for, but reflects instead their commitment to vote. Trump people are much more committed, and that’s why he’s ahead.
This poll gives Trump his best results. No one will ever accuse USC or the LAT of being conservative.
Hot Diggity! Dog Diggity! TRUMP to TRiUMPh
all the way to the OO
Latest NY Times FL poll just out... The leader is... surprise! Hillary by 1! (tied head to head). Absolute BULL... consider the source. They have ZERO cred. Rubio is ahead though.
The grey band is like a MOE but a little different. It represents the range outside of which the score is 95% likely to be predictive of winning (or losing) if the the election were held today.
They were saying the range was too broad (too conservative) so they narrowed it a bit, thus putting both Trump’s and Clinton’s scores outside the range.
So I think they are now saying there is better than a 95% chance that Trump would win and Hillary would lose, if the election were held today.
If I undersrtand it correctly, the two candidates’ scores will always be equal distances from the center of the gray band, since the odds of one candidate winning must always equal the odds of the other losing.
Holding a comfortable lead. The DNC, including its GOPe lapdogs and media propagandists, have to be suffering heart palpitations. This election is Trump’s to lose.
I’d happily vote for a Margaret Thatcher. Sarah Palin is a darling of the right. This is not about gender. RIP Phyllis Schlafley
It is all an easy excuse. I really think most people could really care less about gender, race, etc. Give us a competent candidate!
I will accuse USC of being, well not entirely “conservative” but it does have a more conservative bent than the UC schools. It is a private university, and while academia has been inundated with left leaning ideologues everywhere, USC has a right leaning element. It is California, after all.
Trump slips 1.3 points from yesterday to a margin overall of 5.4 over Clinton.
Still since Sept. 11 Trump has seen a major 6.8 point turnaround competing against Hillary.
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