Posted on 09/18/2016 12:03:58 PM PDT by Kaslin
We’ve been watching a shift in the polls taking place for a couple of weeks now, but at least from where I’m sitting the coverage on cable news and in the larger national newspapers wouldn’t have let you know. Any good numbers showing up for Trump are generally countered with some states where Hillary Clinton was still doing well, projected electoral college totals showing a better Democratic path or the reliable, this may be an outlier disclaimers. Unfortunately for Democratic optimists, the recent tide has turned into more than a blip on the radar and you can almost feel the pain being experienced at the Washington Post this weekend as they were forced to admit that Trump is now in the lead.
To many Democrats, the biggest surprise is that Donald Trump has mounted a comeback. Despite being battered all summer by his own missteps as well as a barrage of attack ads from Clinton, the Republican nominee has been surging in the battleground states.
Public polls over the past week show Trump leading Clinton in Ohio, Florida and Iowa; moving into a virtual tie with her in Nevada and North Carolina; and cutting into what had been comfortable Clinton leads in New Hampshire as well as in Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Clinton’s return to the campaign trail after her highly publicized bout with pneumonia came at what has turned out to be the low point for her of the general election. She is laboring to regain solid footing before the first of three debates, on Sept. 26.
Even in this moment of admission they had to preface the news with comments about Trump being battered by his own missteps, but the trends seem to have become too much to ignore. In some of the most critical swing states, Clinton’s lead has evaporated and been replaced by a Trump lead outside the margins. In other states where she was way ahead, the race has closed to tossup status.
The hated conclusion that Trump may actually be winning is showing up in a variety of unusual places, such as the LA Times daily tracking poll. This one has bounced around quite a bit, but Trump hasn’t had a solid lead in it since the GOP convention. Now he’s up by seven, well beyond the margin of error.
Trump has been leading there since 9/11. Is this a coincidence or does it have something to do with public perceptions of Clinton’s health after that ill fated “stumble” (read: collapse) outside the memorial service? She’s taken a nose dive since then and the latest report from Morning Consult finds that voters have been paying attention. They increasingly believe that Clinton is sick and are worried about it.
Opinions on the former secretary of State’s health have already begun to shift since last month. Today, a little more than two in 10 (22 percent) say Clinton’s health is above average or excellent, down from 29 percent from a late August national survey. Additionally, 41 percent now say it is below average or very poor, compared to only 26 percent who said that in August. A plurality, 28 percent, rank her health as average (compared with 30 percent last month).
It would certainly be odd if the real reason (which we’ll never know) is that people think Clinton isn’t physically well enough to serve. We’ve had more than our share of not terribly healthy presidents over the years. But if they die in office we have a Vice President waiting in the wings. If they are too impaired to continue there’s always the 25th amendment option. But that’s what puts voters off regarding Clinton? Months of headlines have convinced a significant majority of Americans that the woman is an unrepentant liar. Her secretive nature and efforts to hide her activities from the American people didn’t seem to knock her down all that far in previous surveys. The pay for play questions surrounding the Clinton Foundation’s dubious hold on the State Department wasn’t a disqualifier. But if a nearly 70 year old woman is having some health issues, that’s what sends you running for the door?
No… I’m really not buying it. Far more likely is that the cumulative effect of all those other news items is finally weighing her down and Trump has stopped giving reporters quite as many things to set their hair on fire over on a daily basis. But the real test is yet to come. The first debate is next week and given how quickly we saw numbers shift in the GOP primary after the debates earlier this year, I’m bracing for a big change one way or the other depending how the two candidates perform. We’re down to the wire now and everyone who’s going to vote is watching.
% chance of winning EV count i’d guess.
Voter fraud is a two way street.
That is my biggest fear, as well. The right keeps seeming to forget this. We do so at our loss, and our peril.
Two other bits of info.
First, someone posted an article in here yesterday stating that Reuters has Trump up in Vermont. If even remotely close to being true, the MSM and Dems should be close to suicidal.
Second, there’s a story out there that sounds reasonably credible about Hillary’s campaign dunning small donors for additional small amounts that they haven’t approved, keeping the total under $100 so as not to trigger fraud alerts. If that’s true, and it gets the press it should, it could mark the end of her chances of winning.
So, two bits that, if true, are way underreported...so far.
Hopefully voters will still watch the debates. If ratings are low, the press can report whatever they want to and it won’t be pro Trump.
LoL. Hillary and the Dem clowns can forget about FL, and highly likely NC.
They think he’s up in spite of everything they’ve done to drag him down. In fact, he’s up BECAUSE of everything they’ve done to drag him down. His voters are the most informed voters in the nation.
Two attacks. Probably terrorist. The public is not completely stupid. They know who is more likely to keep us safe. And it ain’t the sickly old hag who berths with a muzzard.
BTTT.
My belief is they will be better attended and have more attention paid to them, than President Obama's own press conferences.
And that will be the biggest slap-in-the-face of the Narcissist-in-chief!
He started the whole "Office of the President Elect" thing, and how he's going to get overshadowed by the same. And it's going to just eat him alive... :)
“Trump will win.”
Depends on how well “they” have prepped for cheating.
Everyone KNOWS Trump will be the one receiving the most votes. If the final outcome is his (alleged) loss, there’ll be hell to pay, I think. I hate to imagine what might happen next.
Even if the press had footage of her robbing the elderly at gunpoint, what makes you think they’d disclose it?
Here’s the article about dunning Killary donors:
“We get up to a hundred calls a day from Hillary’s low-income supporters complaining about multiple unauthorized charges,” a source, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of job security, from the Wells Fargo fraud department told the Observer.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3469791/posts
Sometimes the rules change like now.
TTTT!
I don`t dismiss voter fraud, but the thing is, it`s only a problem in certain localities. Voter fraud in Philadelphia can steal at most one state. That`s why Trump surging in many states that were once seen as unwinable has me encouraged. Trump now has many paths to victory which may be his best insurance against having the election stolen from him.
I think Trump fell behind in this poll very slightly a few weeks ago?
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