It is my feeling that Republican voters exist in VAST numbers...VAST.
Posted on 08/28/2016 4:43:29 PM PDT by dontreadthis
[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”….
The “Monster Vote“ is the name attributed to the largest voting bloc in U.S. history. The voters who have/had given up on the political process because it seemed futile to vote for a rigged system where nothing ever changes. –Outlined Here–
However, we first noted the surfacing of the Monster Vote in relation to the political outsider Donald Trump toward the end of 2015. It was, and is, a rather controversial theorem because the voting bloc would make all media polling completely irrelevant.
Throughout the latter part of 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016 we put our research antenna on high alert to see if the indications were real. We paid a statistician to model the data we collected. We made predictions which, if the bloc was accurate, would stun the professional political class.
Trump rally illinois 4
Tracking social media, geographic “non-media polling” and alternate media matrices led us to believe Trump would dominate in the presidential primary. The predictions modeled the results with uncanny accuracy. Gobsmacking accuracy.
A few months later the New York Times began quietly evolving it’s electoral modeling. Washington Post political writer Bob Costa began talking about something that he too was noticing which tracked with our own research. Large numbers of the electorate who never engaged in the political process before were becoming increasingly visible.
Throughout this entire year there have been indications the “Monster Vote” is very real, but you have to look carefully to see them – and, obviously, you must inoculate yourself from conformational bias. 400,000 donations to Trump less than $200 in June was one such example. The social media app Zip App is yet another. 2,000,000 views of an innocuous Trump facebook video within 24 hours is another.
It’s a tenuous discussion because everyone wants to belittle anyone talking about it (looking at you Rush Limbaugh), and simultaneously those holding Cold Anger intensity don’t talk about it – everyone just goes about their business, yet everyone seems to know.
Well, the left-leaning Tampa Bay Times has just dropped a big bit of data which seems to also confirm the existence of this phenomenon:
“More than 25% of the inbound mail-in or absentee ballots in the upcoming primary, have NEVER VOTED BEFORE“:…
[…] “This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber and one of the foremost experts on Florida campaigns and politics. “I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.”
As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.
In other words, these are not “likely voters” surveyed by most pollsters or targeted by sophisticated political campaigns. The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.
“The first thing I did was go back to my data people and said, ‘Are you sure you ran this right?’ “
They had. The data crunchers looked at who requested mail ballots and who is returning them, and categorized each voter by a zero, one, two, three or four — depending on how many of the last four primaries they voted in.
[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.” (read more)
florida coc trump poll♦ Remember, even in honest scientific polling – the poll methodologies are based on “assumptions”, or inputs into the collected poll samples in order to make them representative of the anticipated turnout.
♦ Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete. As a consequence any poll data that is relying on obsolete sample methodology is going to be significantly inaccurate.
If the current ballot data reported in Florida (which does indeed line up with the changes in the Florida voter data-base) extends even remotely similar to the other states throughout the nation, the prior prediction graphic below might even be understated:
Either the mother of all fraud votes or a lot of people motivated to vote Trump.
It does not matter who votes. It matters who counts the votes.
Trump is up over double digits in the internal polls (i.e., the polls they pay a LOT for to really understand the voter landscape). And no, I cannot give a link. Won’t expose my sources.
But ILLary is going to steal this.
What will we do next?
“I suspect that all 200 million residents of Florida will vote for Hillary.”
Uh yea, there are not 200 million people in Florida, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt this time. Go to bed.
See 28 and make sure your state SoS sees it and acts
If they are D. Find a lawyer who will file a class action lawsuit to decertify the system
Indiana decertified in 2012. CO has also decertified it
There’s always the Ceausescu Protocol.
There’s a Reckoning coming.
I really Really REALLY hope we don’t go there. But it is now more likely than not.
NC was even more impressive of a shift.
1 million votes literally shifted from D to R from 2008 to 2016. 450K in 2008 to 1.15M in 2016. D went from 1.6 in 2008 to 1.12M in 2016.
People aren’t looking at this math in terms of baseline enthusiasm. Lots of people coming out on the R side and not coming out on the D side.
Recent Pew poll shows 44% of all American homes have at least one gun in them.
No sane person wants to go there. But those who would lord it over the rest of us have made it all but inevitable.
Lots of decertification listed if you search. Here’s one article
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/defective-voting-machines/52172034/1
ALL the polls are adjusted for known percentages of party affiliation voting patterns.
It's not like they are just calling a random 1,000 people and getting poll results.
They poll 300 republicans, 300 independents, and 400 Democrats. If past voting patterns show that is the usual breakdown. If they call 1,000 randomly and 1,000 identify as Republican... they stop counting at 300 and continue calling until they get enough independents and Democrats to respond to fit their set percentages.
That wasn’t the point I was trying to make. There’s a lot of blue collar retirees originally from New York now living in Florida. They may be politically discouraged folks getting back into politics. I would think that candidate Trump can appeal to them.
Or it could be illegals or fraudulent new registers that have been found through data-mining.
I might have been making a joke about Democrat voter fraud, the dead voting, and how stupid Democrats might hilariously overdo it by having the ridiculous number of 200 million people vote in one state.
Right.
And for me that is a cause of some concern.
Local politician signs in Destin and one large Trump sign near a Pensacola overpass.
My only comfort is believing in the monster vote being far bigger than the fraud vote. People who gave up voting, and who will step up because their country needs them right now. They would never have done so for McPain nor Romney. They might for Trump. Silent voters. If true, I will be forever grateful that they heeded the call.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.