Math Shows Trump Can Still Win: All He Needs is a few Undecided Voters In Battleground States

CBS Marketwatch ^ | Published: Aug 26, 2016 7:39 a.m. ET | Brett Arends

[drewh]

Donald Trump now needs a swing of only 3 to 4 percentage points in key battleground states to win this election.

The rule is simple: Throw lots of mud and see what sticks. It works. For instance, Trump just called for a “special prosecutor” to investigate the Clinton Foundation: It made for a good headline .

The key issue here is how Trump is polling in context. He has just gone through almost a month of terrible campaign news. Yet he remains within a 4-point swing of winning in battleground states. That should be terrifying for Team Clinton.

No wonder betting on Trump at one exchange is now at its highest level since he launched his ill-fated attack on the Khan family following the Democratic convention. Trump’s odds of winning are up to 29% at Predictit.org, a U.S.-based betting exchange, from a low of 24% last week.

Meanwhile, as Labor Day looms, the campaign has just passed a turning point.

Trump’s core voters are blue-collar whites who are worried about jobs, crime and illegal immigration, and who are resentful of “elites,” which is the new term for uppity snobs. According to Suffolk pollster David Paleologos, Trump does far, far better among likely Michigan voters who have a gun in the house than among those who don’t. He’s even level with Clinton among Michigan women who have a gun in the house, despite a huge gender gap in the rest of the population.

It’s hard to imagine that Trump’s base is ever likely to see any “equivalence” with Clinton, no matter how much he softens his language for the general election.

[navymom1]

Bingo. Can’t wait for fall!

[navymom1]

I would be very interested in seeing how many listeners Rush has lost not only those who made it a point to tune in on occasion but those who listened daily. I stopped and whenever I attempt to tune back in, I’m out of there after five minutes. Such a sad disappointment.

[taildragger]

"I would be very interested in seeing how many listeners Rush has lost not only those who made it a point to tune in on occasion but those who listened daily. I stopped and whenever I attempt to tune back in, I’m out of there after five minutes. Such a sad disappointment."

NavyMom1...

I gave up on El-Rushbo after a loved one was heading east so I decided to listen to talk radio in the area and stumbled upon Jeff Kuhner, WRKO 680am out of Boston. I did this about 3 months before Trump jumped in. I was stunned at the angst and anger @ Beacon Hill but more importantly all things DC, people were livid, I sensed something was up here in the US. Trump's timing was impeccable. Now Kuhner was in the morning slot, and they fired Rush and put Jeff in his and his ratings went 3X Rush.

Listen on the web or via their free app which you can find on your app store.

Jeff is an and has always been an American 1st guy. Google him and his background, very interesting guy.

If you listen you will get hooked, this guy is that good...

http://www.wrko.com/kuhner

"The Voice of the Resistance!"

[navymom1]

Thanks for the heads up! I will.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Breitbart had a poll out a little while back with Trump down by 10 percent. Which comes to about 70,000 votes going by 2012 turnout.This is good news. Romney lost the first district by 80,000 votes and second by 29000. Trump should get at least one electoral vote from Maine. With a good ground game, a chance of 3/4.

[Jim Noble]

Math Shows Trump Can Still Win

Whaddaya mean, "can still win"?

The election is in f***ing NOVEMBER. It's AUGUST.

OF COURSE he can win.