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The USC Dornsife/LA Times DAYBREAK POLL (C-44.2, T-44.0)
USC Dornsife/LA Times ^ | 8/23/16 | USC Dornsife/LA Times

Posted on 08/23/2016 5:54:48 AM PDT by tatown

Link only.

(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; poll; trump
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Not sure why the reversal over the past couple of days...
1 posted on 08/23/2016 5:54:49 AM PDT by tatown
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To: tatown

Must have been that thoroughly rehearsed appearance on Kimmel last night that got Hillary the lead this AM. After all, this is LA they are polling.


2 posted on 08/23/2016 5:57:58 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: txrefugee

This is a 7-day rolling average with no polling after the Kimmel appearance. Also, this is a nationwide poll.


3 posted on 08/23/2016 6:00:09 AM PDT by tatown
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To: txrefugee
Must have been that thoroughly rehearsed appearance on Kimmel last night that got Hillary the lead this AM.

Is that really all it takes to change someones vote?

4 posted on 08/23/2016 6:03:24 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: tatown

Louisiana and Policy speeches wearing off. Trump will have to continuously deliver his policies in the manner he did last week to sustain his upward momentum. Stong Defense, Border security, Job & Taxes and Choice in Education


5 posted on 08/23/2016 6:05:24 AM PDT by Rodm
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To: tatown

..these polls are still in the “shaping public opinion” phase of the campaign—Trump leads when the data isn’t cooked...


6 posted on 08/23/2016 6:06:36 AM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: tatown
This is a 7-day rolling average with no polling after the Kimmel appearance. Also, this is a nationwide poll.

I assume that once the pickle jar is factored in Clinton will be leading by 2 or 3 points.
7 posted on 08/23/2016 6:08:01 AM PDT by needmorePaine
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To: tatown

Let the pants-crapping at the DNC commence.


8 posted on 08/23/2016 6:08:57 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Rodm

exactly... he needs to be in the swing states countering the media image of him as a racist wacko loser....


9 posted on 08/23/2016 6:10:00 AM PDT by wyowolf (Be ware when the preachers take over the Republican party...)
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To: tatown
This is not encouraging for the Crooked Hillary camp.

A statistical tie is NOT where they want (or need) to be at this juncture in the campaign. They know that Trump will surge towards the end and needed to have a double-digit cushion by now.

10 posted on 08/23/2016 6:11:36 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (It is a wise man who rules by the polls but it is a fool who is ruled by them)
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To: wyowolf

I see you are taking your concern trolling all across Free Republic today.


11 posted on 08/23/2016 6:12:01 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (It is a wise man who rules by the polls but it is a fool who is ruled by them)
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To: tatown

I check this one every AM. Was really hoping the upward movement for trump would continue. Lets hope this one gets back on track.

There was a large one day spike in Black support 7 days ago that has had held the support among blacks at 14% or so for the past week. That day will fall off the 7 day roll tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how that affects both the overall poll, and the black sub group.

So nothing from Rasmussen, CNN, FOX, or any other large polling group in over a week? Seems a bit unusual.


12 posted on 08/23/2016 6:14:05 AM PDT by phoneman08
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To: tatown

I think they use the same group of people, just rotate when the poll them. So it could be natural to hit ebbs and flows, depending on which group you get which day, that will raise or lower certain numbers.

As this is a 7 day poll, it shows the average over the last 7 days.
But we are now over a week out from the conventions. Convention bounces have subsided.

Hillary was out of the spotlight over the weekend, which usually bodes well for her.
Trumps Louisiana visit hasn’t played out either.

In the last 7 days, Trump has had an average as low as 43.2 to as high as 45. Just a 1.8 fluctuation.

By the same token Hillary was as low as 43 and as high as 44.6 ...Just a 1.6 fluctuation.

Normal burps...that seem huge, when your nose is stuck to the monitor day after day, watching poll numbers...Like mine is.

In reality... nothing


13 posted on 08/23/2016 6:17:32 AM PDT by mountn man (The Pleasure You Get From Life, Is Equal To The Attitude You Put Into It)
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To: txrefugee

This is statistical noise around the fundamental findings that: 1) Trump has a great shot at winning, and the media’s attempt to characterize him as imploding has been ineffective. 2) The race remains tight, at least among the traditional polling groups.

Combine these with the very real possibility that Trump’s candidacy shifts the usual voting demographics, and it remains very, very possible that this turns out to be a run away Trump victory. Anything can happen, but the fact that anything can happen is a very welcome departure from the usual pablum that the political establishment has been feeding Americans for years.


14 posted on 08/23/2016 6:18:14 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: phoneman08
So nothing from Rasmussen, CNN, FOX, or any other large polling group in over a week? Seems a bit unusual.

You can bet that if Crooked Hillary had any kind of a real lead, those polls would be trumpeted by the mainstream media complete with marching bands and other fanfare.

They will eventually have to start reporting polls but they are obviously stalling for time, hoping to have something "good" to report. Even a "tie" is not good news for Crooked Hillary. She was supposed to be sitting on a double-digit lead by now.

15 posted on 08/23/2016 6:21:59 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (It is a wise man who rules by the polls but it is a fool who is ruled by them)
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To: phoneman08
Rasmussen comes out every Thursday. Last week's was +2 Clinton

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

16 posted on 08/23/2016 6:24:37 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: SamAdams76
A new poll came out showing Hillary up by 16! in Virgina, don't believe it is that much, but unfortunately, I do believe that Virgina is now a solidly blue state.
17 posted on 08/23/2016 6:25:41 AM PDT by cowboyusa
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To: Puppage

For a Moron-lennial, yes...................


18 posted on 08/23/2016 6:28:24 AM PDT by Red Badger (Make America AMERICA again!.........................)
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To: tatown

This country is in deep trouble. People know that Hillary is dishonest and corrupt, but they vote for her, anyway. Basic morality does not matter to the American people anymore.


19 posted on 08/23/2016 6:31:18 AM PDT by djpg
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To: cowboyusa

The last good poll for Trump in VA was pre convention and there were two tied polls.


20 posted on 08/23/2016 6:33:23 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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