The most recent polls I’ve seen all show the total third party vote hurting CLINTON.
We may end up having Jill Stein to thank.
Jill looks kinda sexy
Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
>> Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls. <<
I think Gary Johnson really shot himself in the foot by picking big-government liberal RINO William Weld as his "Libertarian" running mate. I don't know any disgruntled conservatives who are considering Johnson after that move. Even the Paulbots seem to like Darrell Castle more than Johnson.
The Johnson/Weld ticket is to the left of Hillary on some social issues, the media is blabbing about some virtually non-existance Bernie Sander voters switching to Trump in the general. More likely, the ones who don't switch to Hillary will either stay home, vote for Jill Stein, or vote for Johnson -- in that order. I can see Johnson picking up a small chunk of Bernie voters in states where Stein isn't on the ballot and he's the only "Not Trump/Not Hillary" option on the ballot.
I still haven't met a single conservative voting for Johnson, but its pretty clear to me that Stein will draw the vast majority of disgruntled lefties, and Johnson will draw disgruntled voters from both parties, although his appeal will be limited.
In theory, Darrell Castle COULD unify the NeverTrump conservatives around his candidacy, but his campaign seems virtually non-existent because A) Nobody ever heard of him and he's getting ZERO media coverage, and B) He's not on the ballot in most states, and voters are unlikely to make the effort to write him in. Another disadvantage he is is that there's several other conservative third party candidates competing him with him, such as FR's own Tom Hoefling launching an independent bid. The Constitution Party had a golden opportunity to pick up disgruntled conservative Republicans this election cycle, but they're really dropped the ball.