Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
Some polls do the 2-way head to head and the 4-way in same poll, in the most recent ones Hillary’s margin of victory is smaller in the 4-way set.
It seems like Johnson is taking about evenly, somewhat to my surprise, whereas Stein isn’t taking any from Trump. If she can do as well as or a little better than Nader did in 2000 (2.74%), that could very well be the difference. If she could top 5% that would kick @$$.
Terrible news, she was denied ballot access in Nevada, Trump should fund her legal challenge.
Johnson’s choice of running mate and a lot of his positions seem tailor made for the RINO vote to the point of upsetting the actual Libertarians, a lot of those RINOs would go Hillary over Trump, clearly hippy idiots are giving him some support too, the weed/anti-war people. Pretty stinky ticket, I would vote for Johnson if he were the GOP nominee he but presents no temptation whatsoever.
Trump averse Republicans are not a homogeneous group so it’s not easy for a candidate to appeal to all of them. Some are liberal RINOs, some are conservatives, some are neocons and some aren’t. Some are scumbags who are actually voting for Hillary, others hate her and would never vote rat but just can’t bring themselves to vote Trump. They should realize as Pete says that the need to save the country from Shillery’s judges is more important than anything else. There is probably no tomorrow if she replaces half the Supreme Court with 45-year old Maoist Nazis. End of argument as far as I’m concerned.
Re: The Constitution Party, in 2012 they had their best known candidate ever and an unappealing GOP nominee and even considering their weak ballot access they still did PATHETIC in the states where they were on the ballot.
Their appeal is just too narrow for them to rise to the level of the Libertarians or even the Greens. Theocratic paleo-cons basically. The neocons would never vote for them. They are big on protectionism so I imagine many of their activists are going for Trump.
I can’t tell you who will win but Johnson WILL come in third and Stein fourth. No one else will crack 0.5%, Pencil in Castle at fifth but his position there is tenuous. If McMuffin gets on some ballots he could be fifth.