Posted on 08/11/2016 5:56:23 AM PDT by Maelstorm
Is the air going out of Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bounce?
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the Democratic nominee with 43% support to Donald Trump’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up eight percent (8%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Last week, the first weekly survey following the Democratic national convention, found Clinton with 44%, Trump at 40%, Johnson at six percent (6%) and Stein with three percent (3%). It was Clinton’s biggest lead over her Republican rival since June. Trump reached a high of 44% support in mid-July.
Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.
Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote and 15% of unaffiliated voters. Stein gets the votes of one percent (1%) of Republicans, one percent (1%) of Democrats and three percent (3%) of unaffiliateds.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]
President Obama last week denounced Trump as “unfit to serve” and “woefully unprepared to do this job.” Nearly half of voters agree, but they’re not so sure Clinton is up to the job either.
Clinton leads by 12 points among women, while Trump has a five-point advantage among men. The Democrat has a double-digit lead among those under 40. Trump is ahead only slightly among older voters.
Johnson runs best among men and younger voters.
Trump gets 20% black support to Clinton’s 72%. She also leads by 13 among other minority voters, while her GOP rival is ahead by six points among whites.
Clinton leads among those who work for the government, while private sector employees are evenly divided between the two major candidates.
The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.
Clinton and many other Democrats avoid using the term "radical Islamic terrorism" publicly because they believe it implicates all Muslims for the actions of extremists. Trump and many Republicans place high importance on the language, saying an enemy cannot be defeated if it is not identified by name. Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism.
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote earlier this year that the only person who can beat Trump is Trump himself, and so far voters think that's exactly what he's doing.
But GOP voters still prefer a party that’s more like Trump than one that’s more like House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican in Congress.
The part that jumps out here (besides the 20% African Americans going to Trump) is that Trump has only a 5% advantage in this poll amongst men. If there is something here that doesn’t pass the smell test and makes you wonder about the sample, that is it. Common sense dictates a margin amongst men significantly greater than that.
You're assuming that most or all of Johnson's votes are coming from people who would otherwise vote Republican. Given his liberalism on social issues and immigration, Johnson will probably get as many votes from disgruntled Democrats as from disgruntled Republicans, as well as from hardline Libertarians who never vote Democrat or Republican regardless. He's not the "spoiler" for Hillary that some Republicans fear and the Democrats are hoping for.
More importantly, come election day, Johnson's 9% will be more like 0.9% - in every election, Libertarians and Greens poll much higher than they actually perform.
What if Hillary says ‘no’ to the debates?
Does Trump debate Johnson and Stein with Hillary in absentia?
Or does Trump ignore Johnson and Stein?
Current NBC poll which is still open for votes..
I voted for my girl? Jill! ;)
When it is all over what he loses to johnson, hillary loses to stein more than likely
Johnson voters need to get their sh!t together and back Trump.
Do Trump people actually respond? I doubt it. I wouldn’t give these polling companies the time if I had a watch on.
“Interesting what people will vote when they aren’t afraid of being shamed over the phone.”
What kind of pathetic excuse for a human worries about being “shamed” by some poll taker on the phone? I would think only those who literally fear their own shadow.
This is “rope a dope “ nd the rats are punching themselves out. One reason they have to is because she campaigns so weakly. Trump is everywhere!! Appearing today before thousands of people. Working!! for the vote. Where is she? she appears now and again in towns he has already been in but she has no real crowds at all. The media won’t tell us !! She has union props and of course the unwavering love and loyalty of Omar Mateen’s father right behind her at her invention!! She totally embraces the terrorist father!! She is pathetically ill and we need her medical records NOW!! 60% of democrats even want to see them before they vote!!
If blacks turn out to vote hrc might get 72% of their vote. But if they don’t vote, I’m sure “voter expansion” efforts will give hrc a minimum of 106% of registered voters due to “early voting”, done after the polls close.
hrc at 19%? Trump getting 20% of black voters? That’s before the hacks. Trump has to be ready to find a way to secure the machines. Honest vote, we may get 60 Senators and a Trump landslide.
Or maybe the Uniparty falses the vote.
“Trump gets 20% black support to Clinton’s 72%”
That’s huge.
Is Gary Johnson trying to be Donald Trump’s Ralph Nader?
Seriously why does Johnson bother running?
To give people a change, hell he is more of a liberal anyway.
PEGGY NOONON...Whom I use to really enjoy listening to. would read her every word..
that changed a number of years ago..
and her STATEMENT in this article where she says voters are ALL agreeing, that Trump is hurting himself..
my answer to her...STRICTLY YOUR OPINION PEGGY...watch us voters SEND YOU AN ANSWER ON NOV. 8
Went off Noonan a few years ago. Now she is just an elitist establishment type.
Hillary lost her bounce...Thank God!!!
Sorry, but those are disenchanted Libertarians, Democrats and Bernies propping up Johnson and Stein too for that matter.
These people don’t like testosterone strength and deplore tradition. TRUMP represents both.
” Glenn Beck: “I’m probably going to vote for Gary Johnson”
I used to love Glenn Beck. But the last few years the man has fallen very far off his rocker. I actually question his sanity now.
“She also leads by 13 among other minority voters,”
I don’t trust this...there are plenty of non-Cuban Latinos who support Trump. LEGAL Hispanic immigrants as well!!!
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