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Posted on 08/11/2016 5:56:23 AM PDT by Maelstorm
Is the air going out of Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bounce?
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the Democratic nominee with 43% support to Donald Trump’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up eight percent (8%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Last week, the first weekly survey following the Democratic national convention, found Clinton with 44%, Trump at 40%, Johnson at six percent (6%) and Stein with three percent (3%). It was Clinton’s biggest lead over her Republican rival since June. Trump reached a high of 44% support in mid-July.
Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.
Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote and 15% of unaffiliated voters. Stein gets the votes of one percent (1%) of Republicans, one percent (1%) of Democrats and three percent (3%) of unaffiliateds.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]
President Obama last week denounced Trump as “unfit to serve” and “woefully unprepared to do this job.” Nearly half of voters agree, but they’re not so sure Clinton is up to the job either.
Clinton leads by 12 points among women, while Trump has a five-point advantage among men. The Democrat has a double-digit lead among those under 40. Trump is ahead only slightly among older voters.
Johnson runs best among men and younger voters.
Trump gets 20% black support to Clinton’s 72%. She also leads by 13 among other minority voters, while her GOP rival is ahead by six points among whites.
Clinton leads among those who work for the government, while private sector employees are evenly divided between the two major candidates.
The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.
Clinton and many other Democrats avoid using the term "radical Islamic terrorism" publicly because they believe it implicates all Muslims for the actions of extremists. Trump and many Republicans place high importance on the language, saying an enemy cannot be defeated if it is not identified by name. Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism.
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote earlier this year that the only person who can beat Trump is Trump himself, and so far voters think that's exactly what he's doing.
But GOP voters still prefer a party that’s more like Trump than one that’s more like House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican in Congress.
My guess? He gets the best Debate Coaching / Mentors money can buy, heck a lot of them will volunteer for free, aka Mr. Newt, Rudy and Christie. IMHO his kids won't let him flub either especially Eric and Ivanka.
His big weakness will be not going in the gutter and sticking to policy and it's benefits. If he can sneak in a quick Reaganesque quip, like Reagan did at Mondale, that might seal the deal...
BTW one more coach he needs is Denesh D’Souza. If anyone can give DJT a look into her gestalt, it would be Denesh. I wouldn’t be surprised if DJT have a team of Psych-OP types giving him a profile of her and perhaps a perspective of her weak points to exploit....
It will be interesting to see what results they finally come up with the day AFTER the election.................and excuses..............
Hillary currently may have 72% of the black vote, that doesn’t mean she’ll get the turnout of black voters that Obama got. On the other hand, black voters for Trump will enthusiastically get out for him.
Hillary can’t get 50 people to show at a rally.
Trump gets tens of thousands.
Trump's supporters are extremely enthusiastic and excited about his candidacy, as can be seen from the size of his rallies. Hillary's candidacy inspires and enthuses virtually nobody, except for a small contingent of aging lesbian harpies who just want to see a female President. The rest of the Democratic base is about as excited with Hillary as we were "thrilled" by Romney or McCain's candidacies.
Another observation today unfortunately through listening to Glenn Beck is that the TPP basically has one third of the 6000 page document deals with trade the other four thousand Pages deal with a new world Constitution where other companies can see our us companies but we cannot see them. Even the Heritage Foundation turn Glen down to be interviewed about it. It gives away our sovereignty.
Those planning to vote for Johnson need to reassess their priorities and realize their votes are only helping Hillary into the White House. Is that what they really want?
Otherwise they need to get their act together and support Trump. We definitely need new leadership in the White House. Someone who will truly focus on getting the US back on its feet — Trump, to “make America great again.”
The reason many think that Trump apparently won most of the Republican debates even if he didn't. I watched the debates from the get-go knowing that I was for Cruz or Trump. Even so, I came away from some debates thinking Rubio had the best night, or Carson, or Cruz. Nevertheless, many voters thought Trump won almost every time; and considering how the primaries worked out, I guess he did.
A great thing about the debates is that Trump can make a point and register a win before the media can develop a meme to squelch him.
This is probably about accurate for right now.
Rasmussen may lean a little to the right, but Trump also probably has more of that undercounted, occasional vote this year.
Wouldn’t hurt for him to stay a little out of the news for a while as surrogates work to keep a negative light on the domestic and foreign record of Obama and Hillary.
Then he’ll be primed to really make an impact in the debates, presuming he’s adequately prepared for them.
Johnson is likely taking 6 of his 9 percent from NeverTrumpers, RINO-leaners, and Cruz supporters.
I think everyone is putting too much hope and expectations into the debates.
I think the debates will not matter and won’t change anyone’s mind.
But a lot of other factors matter — turnout is one of those.
Also -— people need to focus and not throw their votes away on 3rd party candidates.
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Johnson and Stein ran in 2012 as well and combined for about one percent of the vote. I don’t think they will be a big factor this race as well. Sure, it’s fashionable for people to say they are for them now, but when they get in that booth, most of them will know it’s a wasted vote and will vote for either the Republican or the Democrat.
Johnson is a selfish spoiler. He’s a weasel faced nerd.
Finally a creditable poll.
Unless You’re a Republican living in a state like Massachusetts and you never liked Trump in the first place so you don’t mind throwing your vote away by voting for Johnson.
Hillary is falling and she can’t get up.
In most recent Presidential elections, Third Party candidates wind up polling ten times higher than what they wind up getting on election day. I'll be surprised if Gary Johnson gets much more than 1-2% come November, and Stein won't get more than a fraction of one percent.
As for these being wasted votes, if they aren't in swing states, these 1-2% of voters don't count for much anyway.
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