Posted on 08/05/2016 3:21:03 PM PDT by JohnKinAK
WASHINGTON – The Politik is predicting that on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Donald J. Trump will win a landslide election, to become the 45th President of the United States.
2012 and 2016
In 2012, Barack Obama won reelection with 65.9 million votes. Mitt Romney finished 5 million votes behind, at 60.9 million. That earned Obama 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
Just four years earlier, Obama had become the first African American ever to be elected president of the United States, winning the highest amount of votes (69.5 million) by any presidential candidate in history. Despite his historic nature and relative popularity, his margin of victory decreased from 2008. Consequently, Obama became the first incumbent in seven decades to get reelected with fewer electoral votes and a lower popular vote percentage.
Obama lost approximately 3.6 million votes from 2008 to 2012. Romney gained slightly on 2008 candidate John McCain’s 59.9 million.
The takeaway from the 2012 election, as it relates to 2016, is that Barack Obama was a once in a lifetime type of candidate. The first African-American candidate. He was young. He was fresh and his candidacy embodied the sort of ‘change’ that so many dissatisfied American’s felt following a long war in Iraq and the financial collapse of the U.S. housing market.
And despite all that popularity, enthusiasm and African-American turnout, he still only attained 51.1% of the popular vote in 2012.
Hillary Clinton stands no chance of besting the numbers of Barack Obama from 2012. She is far less popular. She has far less charisma. She does not inspire enthusiasm, and she comes with a lifetime of corrupt decisions and illegal behavior.
Primary Changes by the Numbers
In 2008, the last time the Democrats did not have an incumbent on the ticket, they had approximately 38 million Primary voters. In 2016, that number slipped to approximately 30 million. A loss of 8 million primary voters.
In 2008, Republicans had 21 million primary voters. In 2012, the number slipped to 19 million. In 2016 however, the GOP had over 30 million primary voters – approximately 9-10 million more than 2008.
That is a change of approximately 17-18 million voters in favor of the GOP.
John McCain lost by 10 million votes.
Mitt Romney lost by 5 million votes.
And since 2008, the Democrats have lost 8 million primary voters while the GOP has gained about 10 million.
Donald Trump the Rock Star
Trump is the most popular and captivating candidate the party has nominated since Ronald Reagan. A successful businessman, Trump has been in the world spotlight for years and became a household name over the past decade with a successful reality TV show on NBC, ‘The Apprentice’ and ‘Celebrity Apprentice’.
His name adorns buildings, casinos and resorts all over the world.
Everywhere he has gone, for over a year now, throngs of fans and voters stand in lines thousands deep and hours long. In early August, in a Daytona Beach arena, Trump drew 8,000 screaming fans, while Hillary could only muster a few hundred the same day at a high school gym in Colorado. Later that night, in Jacksonville, Trump drew 15,000 people. This is a normal occurrence on the campaign trail.
Again, Hillary inspires no confidence in voters. Donald Trump has to turn away far more fans that Clinton can even draw at a campaign event. This is meaningful as it relates to who actually will make an effort to vote.
To prove how far his national appeal is, Trump won big in every region of the map: Northeast, Southeast, South, Midwest, Rust Belt, Northwest, West and Southwest. He won more primary votes than any candidate in the history of the party, and he did so with 17 candidates running.
He won a landslide primary, in a year in which three very popular elected officials from the big states of Texas, Florida and Ohio were running against him. That alone made it impossible for almost any candidate besides Ted Cruz in Texas, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio, to win. Not only did Trump win, but did so with ease.
The Democrats’ Minority Problem
One myth among the typical media narrative is that Republicans have a minority voter problem. In reality, it’s the Democrats that do. In 2012, when Barack Obama won only 51% of the vote, it took him winning the black vote 93-6, and it also required historically high turnout from that group.
Hillary, at minimum, needs to match Obama’s 93-6 margin with black voters, and needs every single black voter that turned out in 2012. That isn’t going to happen. She may achieve the margin. She won’t come close to getting the same turnout.
The Democrats have an electoral problem, in that they need 95% of the black vote, with large turnout, just to win a general election.
Not only is a problem today, but its a far bigger problem for them in the future. As groups of a demographic grow in size, they also become more diverse. The chances are that Blacks will vote less and less for Democrat in the future, as they grow in size and diversify from evolution.
The GOP has been Destroying Democrats in elections since 2009
When it comes to elections, the GOP has been faring better against Democrats over the last 7 years, than they ever have previously. In 2010, the GOP took back the House of Representatives with a 63-seat pickup, and also grabbed control of 29 of 50 governorships and gained 690 seats in state legislatures.
Then in 2014, The Republicans won 16 seats from Democrats, while only three Republican-held seats turned Democratic. The Republicans achieved their largest majority in the House since 1928. Combined with the Republican gains made in 2010, the total number of Democratic-held House seats lost under Barack Obama’s presidency in midterm elections rose to 77 with the 2014 midterms.
Other than Barack Obama’s unimpressive reelection against Mitt Romney in 2012, the Democrats have been losing every type of election imaginable to Republicans.
The Variable Factors
Hillary Clinton is also on the losing end of almost all variables that play in elections. 1.She is the incumbent party seeking a third consecutive term, which is rarely a good thing 2.The Economy is not producing with 90 million unemployed Americans and only 1.2 % growth. 3.ISIS and Terrorism is striking all over the western world and within the United States borders. The Democrats refuse to even say the phrase “Islamic Terrorism.” 4.Nearly 80% of the country thinks the United States is going in the wrong direction and Hillary Clinton has been directly involved in government for the last 25 years. In these times, experience is not a good thing. 5.Trump is unabashedly pro-American while the Democrats give off a perception that they are embarrassed by being associated as an American. 6.Trump has taken strong positions on two issues that are driving massive new voters to him: Immigration and Free Trade. Both of these issues hit right at the heart of the forgotten middle class, that has seen their jobs traded away oversees by their own elected officials. 7.Over the past 70 or so years, typically the more physically overpowering ticket wins. Trump/Pence or Clinton/Kaine? Who seems tougher to you? 8.Her husband Bill Clinton never received even half of the vote during his two Electoral College victories in 1992 and 1996. The Clintons are not as popular as the media would have you believe. 9.Hillary doesn’t have the heart of her party’s voters. Bernie Sanders did. And unfortunately for the Democrats, the heart of their party’s voters lost. 10.Trump, on the hand, is the heart of the party and beat the powerful interests groups trying to steal it from him and his record setting amount of voters.
The Secret-Trump Vote
Don’t even bother looking at a poll. If they were any accurate or valuable at predicting, then the people who ran them would be billionaires.
As we learned from the DNC-WikiLeaks scandal, the Democratic Party and Mainstream Media manipulate polls for nothing other than headlines and talking points, meant to drive narratives and suppress Republican turnout.
Instead, think of the facts.
In 2012, the voting age population was 235 million, but only 129 million voted.
Both parties left a possible 106 million votes on the table.
Because of Donald Trump’s candidacy, all the rules have been thrown out. We’ve seen that few of the old political playbook tricks work against him. Money being spent by his opponents have all gone to waste.
We saw every single professional political pundit in the country get the entire primary season wrong – on both sides.
The media and their phony polling consultants don’t have any clue what turnout will look like. If they did, they wouldn’t have bungled their Trump and Clinton predictions so badly in the primaries.
What we do know is that Trump is attracting voters from all over the map and into the Republican fold, just to vote for him. It’s how he unexpectedly massacred 16 opponents in the primary.
It’s how he will massacre Hillary Clinton in the general election.
When the media tells you that this race is close or that Hillary is leading, just simply laugh it all off.
This election is already over and Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States.
http://www.270towin.com/states/
Obama lost vote percentage in every one of the 11 BattleGround States.
Whites are the only demographic group which doesn’t vote as a block. There are exceptions, e.g., some Southeast Asian groups, but even here the dichotomy is largely due to bringing their baggage with them, and within a generation they too are monolithic (and Democrat). And these immigrant groups realize that there seems to be no downside to opposing the demographic group which created the society and civilization other peoples of the world covet and want to immigrate to. And somehow these peoples believe that the country came about and will continue without this demographic.
Agreed!!! No place for whimpering bleating pussies. Channelling Clint Eastwood here.
“In reality, it’s the Democrats that do. In 2012, when Barack Obama won only 51% of the vote, it took him winning the black vote 93-6, and it also required historically high turnout from that group.”
I would agree in the sense that Trump makes a concerted effort to publicly identify the lengths to which Hillary’s campaign is courting the black vote. I lived in South FL during 2008 and 2012, and one thing the Democrats did was under the radar GOTV for urban minority voters. Bill Clinton was narrating radio ads running on hip hop stations in Miami, in heavy rotation. He visited Miami frequently, late in the campaign in 2012. No media access, except select urban radio folks. So you get voter activation (Bill Clinton is like heroin for urban minority voters) and you do not antagonize independent, or perhaps conservative Democrat voters who don’t like to be reminded of the existence of Bill Clinton. If the degree to which the Democrats cater to this voting block were realized, there would be a punishing reaction. In other words if the Republicans made them pay for their patronage of the black vote, Hillary could turn up back for from 93-6 to 99-1 at a cost of say 6 points of a much larger group, say white voters or all non-black voters.
Trump is not my guy, and he has been blundering so far. But one of the few bright spots is that he has not felt obligated to pander for the black vote as W did and as Romney attempted. The smart move is not to even try.
FR’s Catholic members all seem conservative (and leery of Francis).
I stand by what Rush says, “You can tell how scared they are of someone by how much they attack him”.
1.She is the incumbent party seeking a third consecutive term, which is rarely a good thing
2.The Economy is not producing with 90 million unemployed Americans and only 1.2 % growth.
3.ISIS and Terrorism is striking all over the western world and within the United States borders. The Democrats refuse to even say the phrase “Islamic Terrorism.”
4.Nearly 80% of the country thinks the United States is going in the wrong direction and Hillary Clinton has been directly involved in government for the last 25 years. In these times, experience is not a good thing.
5.Trump is unabashedly pro-American while the Democrats give off a perception that they are embarrassed by being associated as an American.
6.Trump has taken strong positions on two issues that are driving massive new voters to him: Immigration and Free Trade. Both of these issues hit right at the heart of the forgotten middle class, that has seen their jobs traded away oversees by their own elected officials.
7.Over the past 70 or so years, typically the more physically overpowering ticket wins. Trump/Pence or Clinton/Kaine? Who seems tougher to you?
8.Her husband Bill Clinton never received even half of the vote during his two Electoral College victories in 1992 and 1996. The Clintons are not as popular as the media would have you believe. 9.Hillary doesn’t have the heart of her party’s voters. Bernie Sanders did. And unfortunately for the Democrats, the heart of their party’s voters lost.
10.Trump, on the hand, is the heart of the party and beat the powerful interests groups trying to steal it from him and his record setting amount of voters.
Protests? That wouldn’t draw out pantywaist Bernie supporters or BLM types. You’d get red blooded Americans seething and we don’t March, holler slogans, or hold up cute signs.
Sadly the US doesn’t conduct free and fair elections.
The US is a corrupt nation.
Excellent analysis.
Bully!
Left out is the cemetery vote. Not even that will be enough.
Also I expect watchers to flag precinct turnouts over 100% as fraudulent...remember that fake republicans don’t challenge that...Trump will.
Lastly I have to vent.
Obama is a fake black man...no slavery ancestry so to me, he has no experience and isn’t truly American especially since he is half white, too. I’d wager behind closed doors many blacks in friendship circles regret, claiming him...twice.
Its like Humpty Dumpty..
Hillarity has cracked her head and nothing will save her at the debates.. or the polls..
(/Pipedream) ;-)
And I even messed that up.
If it comes to that, I will be on my way back home to help out. Seriously. There will be massive protests if Mr. Obama does that.
I am an out-of-shape middle-aged woman, but that cannot stand.
Item 7 - Totally goofy.
Item 9 - The heart of the democrat party are immoral peoople who put party before everything else. They don’t care that Obama is an American hating criminal scumbag and they don’t care that Hillary is a lying, scamming, criminal either.
Item 10 - Trump is not the heart of the republican party - that’s what is driving the Never Trump people. They resent losing control of the party. That is why many of them, like Paul Ryan, are doing their best to undermine Trump.
But Trump is the heart of the movement comprised of people who are fed up with the corrupt government run by both parties and are tired of voting for the person they hope will be the least corrupt.
What a glorious result that would be.
I just told a friend today I think internal polling for Hillary must not be good. The democrat controlled Chicago news media has become completely unhinged with their attacks on Trump. Never heard anything like it. I know from reading the police blogs they are all in for Trump.
All these tweaked polls and media hand wringing are good in many ways. If the DEmonRats convince themselves they are going to win without cheating they will do less of it and we might just have a real chance.
I also believe Trump will win big. These current polls are manipulated in ways we have never seen. In a few weeks even the manipulations will not keep Hillary in the lead with 10-15 pts.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
