"It REEEALY IS THIS TIME! [straining] TRUMP'S REEEALY GOING DOWN! [groaning, panting] THIS IS IT! THIS IS IT!"
Posted on 06/27/2016 8:47:46 AM PDT by Maceman
The conservative blogosphere is lighting up again with accusations of polling bias against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in his race against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. However, Trump supporters should avoid giving into this temptation to assume unfavorable results must be biased results. Clinton really is leading Trump, and by nearly 6 percentage points.
The blogospherian argument goes something like this: Clinton is leading Trump by 5 to 7 points in certain polls because the pollsters oversampled or over-weighted Democrats by about 5 to 7 points. If the polls are “corrected” to include fewer Democrats then the race is actually tied, they say.
For instance, one blogger argues that a recent CBS News poll inflated the number of Democrats in the poll, comprised of 28 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. Citing one pollster’s calculation, she thinks party identification in the United States is closer to parity, with 28 percent Republicans and only 29 percent Democrats rather than a seven-point Democratic advantage. She reasons that if you erase the partisan gap that would erase Clinton’s six-point lead over Trump.
For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
“I remember TONS of articles about polls showing Romney behind Obama and the same logic was put forth: oversampling of Democrats.”
I suggest someone set up a website that “un-skews” the current polls like was done in 2012 and proved that Romney was winning all along!
The last presidential and Cong. election exit polls showed this:
Self party ID.
2004 Even D 37 R 37 I 26
2008 D+7 D 39 R 32 I 29
2010 Even D 35 R 35 I 29
2012 D+6 D 38 R 32 I 29
2014 R+1 D 35 R 36 I 28
There's something in the air, and it's not reflected in the polls.
True, but why wouldn’t conservative papers/organizations put out equally biased polls just to screw around with the marxist propagandists?
LMAO
“I hear the enthusiasm for Donald diminishing. Big time and reluctantly in most cases.”
Your concern is noted like those in the past!
We don't need to rationalize, we need to mobilize if we plan on making America great again.
This is a phony as the polls.
I don’t know if we can trust the polls OR the votes. Reading about how Kennedy won, and a lot of other machinations in the 1960s-70s, honestly, I don’t think things are less corrupt now.
It seems that the Trump supporters are somewhat underground in big cities. There are zero Trump bumper stickers, never seen one. Scared to put one on my car but three Trump voters live here. In conversation, loud idiots proclaim against Trump and mock anyone who would actually vote for him. Some will admit Hillary isn’t so great, but she is “experienced.” Whaaat? The most acceptable thing to say around here socially is that you hate the choices we have. It makes me sad because we have one outsider who won’t rule us like a king, and these people either don’t get it or won’t admit it.
Not surprised at all. If you support Mr. Trump have to o be quiet about it to protect yourself.
They said the same thing about Brexit last week.
Folks this is 1980 all over again.
Let’s not forget that The Federalist is the cRuz loving blog. They are the ones who were rolling out non-stop anti-Trump stories, when cRuz was still in the race. They’ve continued their negative Trump articles, since.
The publisher, Ben Dominech, is the co-founder of RedState (TedState).
Take a look at their articles, and you’ll see a definite anti-Trump history.
Take this article with the same grain of salt that you would anything from TedState.
“True, but why wouldn’t conservative papers/organizations put out equally biased polls just to screw around with the marxist propagandists?”
What conservative papers/organizations?
Oh, you mean like National Review and other GOPe Open Borders real conservatives!
Oh yeah, like George What’s name and his group, who will be supporting Clintoon!
Of course the conservative Faux News and ABCNNBCBS!
I left out the conservative NY and LA Slimes and the Compost.
Of course the conservative web sites like Politico will help us!
In reality about the only pro Trump voices are Drudge, Free Republic and Sundance and they don’t polls!
Massive voter fraud won the last two elections.
I have the feeling Emily sees what she wants to see and ignores background information
Well, not exactly. The D+ number is always based on turnout at the LAST election.
Whatever is “the” accurate number for D/R registration, it is somewhat meaningless because 50% of a much bigger registration number can lose to 95% of a smaller number.
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